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Wxoutlooksblog

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  1. Wxoutlooksblog
    Look at the maps. The LP is way too tucked into the NJ coast. WX/PT
  2. Wxoutlooksblog
    It looks wrong. WX/PT
  3. Wxoutlooksblog
    Boston will even probably go over to rain. WX/PT
  4. Wxoutlooksblog
    GFS and CMC are each all rain for coastal areas and the big cities of the northeast. Just not enough or cold enough air. WX/PT
  5. Wxoutlooksblog
    Another thing as of now worth noting. There is not much of a reinforcing colder air mass coming in on the backside of the storm as it pulls away. This is important because as the lifting and vertical velocity dynamics pass their peak whatever snow there is falling will probably mix or change back over. Instead of an incoming HP we have the upper low which could bring a short period of rain or a mix early Sunday night. The incoming cold air is behind that upper low. But that cold air will most likely be wasted as the next storm system heads for the Lakes. WX/PT
  6. Wxoutlooksblog
    I'd be surprised if the NAM got it right Friday evening. Saturday morning it might be within range for the NAM, maybe. WX/PT
  7. Wxoutlooksblog
    I would be extremely surprised if the NAM correctly called this event Wednesday evening. I'd be shocked really. WX/PT
  8. Wxoutlooksblog
    With regards to the micro analysis of the HP to the north. The earlier maps (yesterday and the day before) showed it better locked in place. However please note. This is still marginally cold enough air and its penetration south at all levels is highly questionable. It's going to have to be nearly perfect for this to come together as a primarily snow event for coastal sections and I think we might be on the verge of losing that possibility. On the CMC it's gone. On the GFS it's almost gone. WX/PT
  9. Wxoutlooksblog
    Oh please! It is not 1996.
  10. Wxoutlooksblog
    That system most likely all or almost all rain along the coast and in the big cities as the primary tracks into the Lakes. WX/PT
  11. Wxoutlooksblog
    I'm leaning towards taking the suppression solutions off the table. We are in what would normally be the time-frame where suppressive solutions would dominate. Only the GFS and last night's Euro to an extent have shown significant suppression. I think a major event of some kind is likely here. Exactly what, we wait another few runs to know for sure. WX/PT
  12. Wxoutlooksblog
    Don't agree. Risk is either suppression or rain. We are in a phase where most of the models will trend south and east. We most likely will be in a trending north/west trend again as the event nears. It all depends on how far these trends go in each phase. WX/PT
  13. Wxoutlooksblog
    Still got a long ways to go. In the 3-6 day time-frame it may trend again towards less amped then when we get inside of 60 or 72 hours it may reverse and trend a bit towards more amped again. This sometimes happens. We're a long ways from knowing the end result. WX/PT
  14. Wxoutlooksblog
    Given trends there's a good chance the coastal forms too late and the track of the LP is too close to coastal sections but it could still change. WX/PT
  15. Wxoutlooksblog
    Watching Jan 6th into the 7th. At this point, I have trouble seeing how this works out in in our favor. Definitely a thread the needle situation, if it comes too close to us, we're mostly rain, if it stays too far south we're on the edge of the precip get little if any. The GFS really indicated a nearly perfect track for snow from the Washington D.C. to Baltimore to Philly to NYC and LI. I'd be amazed if it actually worked out that way. WX/PT https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2023123100/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_31.png
  16. Wxoutlooksblog
    No major change in sight. WX/PT
  17. Wxoutlooksblog
    We can wish. The pattern looks infinitely better at the end of the GFS run in the fantasy range. Finally a HP doesn't race eastward from eastern Canada and northern New England and overrunning moisture dumps lots of snow up the east coast. This at this point is nothing really but imaginary but if the fantasy maps were actually to verify we'd probably get at least 4-8" heavy wet snow. But maps on these dates will change a lot between now and then. It's encouraging however to see the model able to come up with this whereas previously we've seen pretty much nothing. WX/PT
  18. Wxoutlooksblog
    Happy Holidays everyone!! WX/PT
  19. Wxoutlooksblog
    I agree. And it's not December 1st or 13th. If what many forecasts for an active and cold winter were going to pan out, it is time to begin to see some evidence of it consistently in the longer range. I do not. Tonight and tomorrow are cold, but over the weekend and into next week, the cold leaves. There is no prolonged cold and none in sight. Yes the New Years Eve holiday weekend might be cold but dry. In order to get snow you have to have the cold and the moisture and/or storm at the same time. WX/PT
  20. Wxoutlooksblog
    Here is the problem as I see it. While we've experienced lots of precipitation due to the almost tropical moisture accompanying storms which have hooked to our west our cold or modified cold outbreaks have been extremely transient and very short-lived. And when it's cold, it's dry. Storms are major super-moist lots of intensity with high winds and flooding and occur about every 7-10 days. Even though precip amounts are way above normal, it is NOT a stormy pattern historically for late December going into January. A stormy pattern over this time is an event every 3 days. When was the last time we got significant precipitation from a storm sliding under us with a cold HP to the north or n/w?? There are some red flags waving for the likelihood of the cold snowy winter forecasts most outlets have come up with. Even today's better looking maps which tend to be over 300 hours away do not show a ridge out west. Yes there's the split flow, but there's never cold HP locked in place when a low moves into the Plains and towards the east. Rather HP slides east of New England the low pressure curves northward and we are doused with heavy rain. I think this pattern of cold/dry alternating with warmer/wet will probably last into mid January at least and maybe longer. Then you look back at late starting winters here. Which ones are memorable? 1978 is the most notable. But I gotta say, there was fierce cold air pouring into the northeastern U.S. that year from November 1977 into December 1977 with several nights dropping well into the teens. We are struggling to get temperatures into the 20s this year. I'm just uncertain that what we'd like to see is going to happen this time. WX/PT
  21. Wxoutlooksblog
    Would like to point out that a number of winters which featured some great snowstorms started out with some mild to warm weather in early December. 1960 even had several days with temperatures mid-upper 50s prior to the cold and snow which arrived on December 12th. 1982 had a day or two in the lower 70s in early Dec prior to the incredible snowstorm Feb 11, 1983. It is not uncommon to see some mild weather early in Dec prior to a more active and colder winter. WX/PT
  22. Wxoutlooksblog
    I agree. Just a few adjustments out west and up north and clippers are capable of tapping bitterly cold air from central and eastern Canada and driving it across the Great Lakes and into the northeast. Right now the ridge is a little too expansive. It needs to retrograde or re-align itself for that to happen. WX/PT
  23. Wxoutlooksblog
    There is a chance we will have to wait until later on. Clipper patterns tend to be on the drier side and with a big ridge over the western 2/3 of the country there's little moisture to be had unless you're right by the Gulf of Mexico or in Florida. Anyway in the longterm the pattern could change quickly at almost any time. So we'll see. WX/PT
  24. Wxoutlooksblog
    It looks per the Euro that we're going to get into a clipper type pattern for a significant period of time. This means a milder day or two here and there but also repeated incursions of colder air with the risk of some light snow when the the clipper storm systems move across and there is some cold air still in place. Some of these systems may stay south of the NYC Metro but others could drop over the area from the north and west. As long as it lasts, these systems generally do not bring heavy or even moderate precipitation to the are so precip amounts should be near to perhaps a bit below normal. But we'll experience some cold and who knows, maybe we'll get lucky with a dusting to 2" at some point. WX/PT
  25. Wxoutlooksblog
    This situation is not very far from producing a snowstorm somewhere in the NYC Metro Region. My feeling is that the GFS is holding onto the primary at least a bit too long with the blocking. All it takes is for this to re-develop a few hundred miles southeast of the primary and we're in business. WX/PT
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