Wxoutlooksblog
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When you get the low that much further north in that position look at what else is further north. The antecedent HP is practically off the map and it wasn't that cold to begin with. Incoming HP now a bit far to the west. You could have a r/s line nw of the NYC. But I think that's the only model showing the HP and LP that far north. It's going to be difficult to make this happen, not saying it's impossible. WX/PT
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It's not nearly enough for what you're hoping for and the jet stream is still incredibly fast. I just still cannot see this trough going negative in time for a snowstorm in NYC but I agree it still bares watching. WX/PT
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But by using this data as proof you are saying we cannot have more decades of 6 or 7 winters per decade of 30+. I'm not sure I buy your conclusion because there are many weather pattern changes from winter to winter for many reasons and not only global warming. In fact many changes from winter to winter could have nothing to do with global warming. And certainly lack of cold is not why we have had no snow this December. WX/PT
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While I believe the science of global warming and climate change I do not believe the above data is very good evidence of it. So far in the 2020s Central Park is ahead of the 1980s and tied with the 1970s. With 5 more winters ahead of us this decade this is IMO not evidence that our average number of 30+ seasonal snowfall amounts per decade is going down. We had two at second highest back to back 2000s and 2010s. WX/PT
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I'd just add that it is kind of a pathetic situation. We have strong gusty northeasterly winds, high pressure is cold and in almost a perfect spot, there's even a bit of an inverted trough. You'd think somehow we'd be able to squeeze some flakes out of this. There is enough room for a system to develop further west but it doesn't. And I don't think it will. Sad. WX/PT
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Tomorrow's 00Z GFS is faster and further out to sea with the weekend system/non-system than last run. WX/PT https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2024121600/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_22.png
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I totally agree with what you say. While the above fantasy is possible and we cannot completely write off anything 6-7 days ahead, it is an extremely remote chance. WX/PT
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No problem with cold air. But there is a problem this year with the fast west to east jet stream and the fact that no more than one model picks up on even the threat every one in five runs of it. The odds are heavily opposed to this threat materializing whereas in 2010 the odds were just not at all that way. It is a very different year, different jet stream pattern, just not the same. I know you want to say well this is similar and that is similar so maybe it will happen this time. And I say well maybe it will, or else I wouldn't have even drawn attention to it. But all probabilities right now oppose this year's threat whereas they didn't in this same way in 2010 when there was a very amplified jet not nearly as fast. WX/PT
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During 2010 we were saying the same thing two days before the storm. This is 7-8 days ahead. I also do not think the La Ninas or the overall weather regimes are comparable. WX/PT
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The Euro today brought the ocean storm Dec 21-22-23 closer to the area than previous runs (lately). I would still think this remains primarily an ocean storm but it does bear some watching because if it trended just a little closer we'd be getting some snow. WX/PT https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ec-fast/2024121512/ec-fast_z500_mslp_us_7.png
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In the NYC Metro Region I do not think anything will accumulate if there is even any wet snow at all (which I doubt). The one threat I have noted several times that kept hope alive this month was for Dec 21-22nd. Right now IMO it doesn't look likely to come to fruition. But we'll see. Other than that unlikely threat, I see no accumulating snow threats for the NYC Metro Region for at least the next 2 weeks. WX/PT
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Actually, it doesn't have to. It may or may not. WX/PT
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The maps will keep changing. We know this because they almost always do. WX/PT
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The 00Z operational Euro has it over eastern LI Thursday evening. I think it's going to be all rain at the coast but it's starting to look like heavy wind-driven rain, nasty. WX/PT https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ec-fast/2024112400/ec-fast_T850_neus_6.png
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Surely some inland areas would see Thanksgiving Day snow from this map if it verified. I don't have precip type maps yet but for the coast it might be a close call for rain vs. snow. You do have an e-se wind initially but a good 50/50 low and incoming cold high pressure might help keep the storm south of the area and winds which could back around to north-northeast as the storm heads east south of LI could cause it to at least end as snow at the coast. WX/PT https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ec-fast/2024112200/ec-fast_z500_mslp_us_8.png
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I think even the Bronx and north shore of Queens Cty could see some wet flakes later tomorrow. WX/PT
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The faster it comes out east the weaker it will be. WX/PT
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Some changes on the GFS this morning, not sure if they are real. The ridge over the Plains states starting to break down around 246 hours and a trough begins to take shape. In the longrun the Gulf of Mexico could open up, we'll see. We already see more activity swinging through from west to east with another Great Lakes runner around Nov 27th. WX/PT
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Totally agree with this. With a ridge over the center of the country the GOM moisture is cut off to any system moving across. I think moisture content of even an important low pressure system will probably be less than it usually would be. WX/PT
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Looks like parts of our region could get close to 80 on election day and November 6th. The ridiculous warmth and drought continue. WX/PT
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Odds strongly favor you will be correct. I would say different than the ones we've seen in recent previous years. I would be surprised if we didn't get more snow and colder temperatures than recent years. Then again, I see below average precipitation continuing so I'm not looking for it to be special. WX/PT
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We are trending towards a chillier and drier than normal pattern. It's been a very long time since we've had a colder and drier than normal winter pattern. The odds would say we're due for one. But the large scale pattern patterns do suggest that a ridge in the east builds just as winter would be establishing itself here. WX/PT
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How many days in a row now have we seen winds out of an easterly quadrant? It seems like since the first week of September. WX/PT
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Still looking for warmth at some point during the first ten days of October probably out ahead of a likely to be developing hurricane somewhere in the GOM or off the east coast. WX/PT https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ec-fast/2024092512/ec-fast_z500_mslp_us_10.png
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I'm getting a feeling of an extremely warm second period in October from around the 6th-10th. We'll see, lots can and will change. WX/PT
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