Wxoutlooksblog

On another note, most of the long range guidance seems to favor our moving into a warmer than normal pattern as February and March roll around. Is anyone seeing anything different than I am on this? In the actual pattern I do not see it happening but maybe after the Jan 19-25 time-frame the pattern could flip to warmer. I'll believe it when I see it. WX/PT

Next time frame to watch for measurable snow as we pile it up this season January 19th-25th with a stalled out front to our south and cold high pressure to the north. CMC and European models show the potential with overrunning and stable waves of low pressure moving northeastward along the front to our south. We'll see if anything comes out of it. WX/PT

Don't give up on this season. There's a long ways to go. And in February and March you normally get a lot of deep storms and the jet slows down allowing more amplification of the jet stream. WX/PT

I think the floor is a lot lower than the ceiling is high at this point. We'll see if it amounts to more than yesterday. It could be 1-3"/2-4", remote chance of up to 5", better chance of a coating to an inch, or almost nothing at all. It's going to move quickly probably in Friday night late and out by Saturday afternoon. We have to slow this jet stream down significantly to allow a trough to dig and to get a major storm up here. WX/PT

I do not see that. It looks cold just like what we've been having. Severe cold to me is lows 10-15 highs 20-25 or lower. Don't see it. WX/PT

Oh I think this is going to end up much closer to the ECMWF track. I'm not taking the GFS seriously. WX/PT

GFS is mostly rain at the coast as the low rides out along the south shore of LI. The heavy snow is well north and west. WX/PT

I am solidly sold on an EPS/ECMWF solution. WX/PT

One of the problems we have is that there is no real eastern trough. We are on the backside of a North Atlantic trough which is typically very dry with abundant confluence. It's very difficult to get a storm to make the left turn up the coast at the right time to get us in the sweet spot. The lack of any eastern trough in combination with our being on the backside of an Atlantic trough is why the storms do not make the turn and head straight out to sea. Having the North Atlantic trough makes it more difficult for us to get that eastern trough as well. WX/PT

CMC is a little further offshore and again extremely fast from west to east and the UKMET is out to sea entirely. So we wait and see what the models do overnight and tomorrow. WX/PT

One positive change for snow here in NYC Metro Region, and I always harp on hign pressure position as you know. We are beginning (on the 00Z GFS) to see cold high pressure nosing eastward from the northern Plains states and Lake Winnipeg region to just north of the Great Lakes. This has the potential with a deeper trough going negatively tilted to become a good source of cold air. I'm not saying this is going to happen, just saying that this aspect of the set up for a snowstorm may be improving depending on what happens later on. WX/PT

I think a lighter more suppressed storm is favored at this time due to the fast west to east suppressed seasonal pattern but that could change. The time-frame definitely bares watching. WX/PT

You are talking about tomorrow we have been talking about next weekend not tomorrow. WX/PT

Verbatim going by the European model it is snow to rain to snow (and not a lot of snow) at the coast. Again high pressure antecedent or incoming is not favorable for a big snowstorm as of yet. All that said a track too far south of us cannot be ruled out and given the pattern we have been in will have to be watched out for. WX/PT

More about this though this still based on the map above. The cold air sources antecedent and incoming HP are not in a good position to support an all-snowstorm in coastal sections of NYC. That doesn't mean that they won't be only that on this map, they're not. It could and almost certainly will change for the better or the worse. WX/PT

I so far can only access these maps and while I would think it would be snow to rain to snow in NYC and on LI I'm not sure and reserve judgment until I see more maps in the morning. It is also again an extremely fast mover so I'm not sure on snow amounts anywhere. Winds on LI and southeastern NE blowing out of the e-se according to this map. WX/PT https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ec-fast/2025010500/ec-fast_z500_mslp_us_8.png

We'll see about Monday. There's still an outside chance the low tracks a little closer or that the precipitation shield is a bit more widespread leading to some significant accumulations our way. But I am pessimistic right now. I think it's going to be predominantly cold/dry with brief warm-ups featuring some convective precipitation at times. I do recall similar winters when we went extended periods of time with cold and dry (just flurries) and then it warmed up and rained. WX/PT

We are on the backside of a trough. Backsides of troughs are usually drier than normal and colder than normal. Occasionally we get a break with a clipper but the cold air is gone and we get t-storms. Then we're on the backside of the trough again. Rinse and repeat. That looks like the pattern we are in and yes snow for portions of the deep south. WX/PT

I think the dominant features of the pattern we'll move into will probably be the confluence around the big upper low over the Canadian Maritimes and the wind and cold. The idea of a few snowfall events on the lighter side with low pressure systems racing across to our south makes sense to me followed by one more formidable storm. We'll have periods of dry but very cold weather prior to maybe some moderation late in the month. WX/PT

This could be what we've been waiting for. If it's not, I think maybe it would be just a little later on. WX/PT https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ec-fast/2024123000/ec-fast_z500_mslp_us_9.png

Euro with a major storm New Years Eve into New Years Day, the question is temperatures which might be marginal. You got a great track but there are a few things off. Both antecedent and incoming HP air masses are marginally cold and not quite in the ideal position. Incoming cold HP is not exactly on the heels of the storm's departure. We'll see what happens over time. WX/PT https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ec-fast/2024122500/ec-fast_z500_mslp_us_9.png

Overrunning/CAD event possible Thurs-Fri Dec 26-27th reference Euro and GFS. WX/PT https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2024122206/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_17.png

I saw 1.8" on the PNS. WX/PT 84 NOUS41 KOKX 211403 PNSOKX CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-220152- Public Information Statement National Weather Service New York NY 903 AM EST Sat Dec 21 2024 ...SNOWFALL REPORTS... Location Amount Time/Date Provider ...Connecticut... ...Fairfield County... Stamford 1.0 S 2.5 in 0800 AM 12/21 COCORAHS Ridgefield 2.4 NNE 1.7 in 0700 AM 12/21 COCORAHS Bethel 1.5 in 0724 AM 12/21 COCORAHS Fairfield 1.5 in 0730 AM 12/21 Public Norwalk 1.5 in 0700 AM 12/21 COCORAHS Ridgefield 1.5 in 0650 AM 12/21 COCORAHS Monroe 1.0 in 0600 AM 12/21 COCORAHS Bridgeport Airport 0.8 in 0700 AM 12/21 Official NWS Obs Brookfield 0.8 in 0700 AM 12/21 COCORAHS ...Middlesex County... Higganum 1.0 in 0800 AM 12/21 COCORAHS Clinton 0.8 in 0736 AM 12/21 Broadcast Media Durham 0.5 in 0700 AM 12/21 COCORAHS ...New Haven County... Naugatuck 0.7 in 0700 AM 12/21 COCORAHS Madison Center 1.3 N 0.5 in 0700 AM 12/21 COCORAHS ...New London County... Pawcatuck 0.7 in 0700 AM 12/21 COCORAHS Norwich 0.5 in 0600 AM 12/21 COCORAHS ...New Jersey... ...Bergen County... Oakland 4.0 in 0800 AM 12/21 COCORAHS Montvale 1.8 ESE 3.8 in 0800 AM 12/21 COCORAHS Fair Lawn 3.0 in 0714 AM 12/21 COCORAHS North Arlington 2.5 in 0700 AM 12/21 COCORAHS ...Essex County... Essex Fells 4.5 in 0700 AM 12/21 Public West Orange 4.0 in 0700 AM 12/21 Public Livingston 3.4 in 0820 AM 12/21 Public Montclair 3.2 in 0730 AM 12/21 COCORAHS Maplewood 2.6 in 0700 AM 12/21 COCORAHS 1 NNW Newark Airport 2.2 in 0700 AM 12/21 Official NWS Obs ...Hudson County... Harrison 3.0 in 0800 AM 12/21 COOP 1 WSW Hoboken 2.9 in 0800 AM 12/21 COCORAHS ...Passaic County... Little Falls 4.0 in 0825 AM 12/21 Public Little Falls 3.7 in 0700 AM 12/21 COCORAHS Hawthorne 3.4 in 0740 AM 12/21 Trained Spotter ...Union County... Scotch Plains 3.4 in 0720 AM 12/21 Public Cranford Twp 0.6 NNW 3.3 in 0700 AM 12/21 COCORAHS Westfield 3.3 in 0630 AM 12/21 COCORAHS Plainfield 2.8 in 0700 AM 12/21 Trained Spotter Westfield 0.8 WSW 2.8 in 0700 AM 12/21 COCORAHS ...New York... ...Bronx County... 1 NW Mott Haven 2.0 in 0550 AM 12/21 Public ...Kings County... Midwood 2.7 in 0740 AM 12/21 Broadcast Media ...Nassau County... 1 ENE Glen Cove 2.2 in 0619 AM 12/21 Public Hicksville 1.4 SSE 1.9 in 0700 AM 12/21 COCORAHS Massapequa Park 1.3 in 0700 AM 12/21 COCORAHS Syosset 1.0 in 0732 AM 12/21 COOP ...New York (Manhattan) County... New York 1.8 in 0700 AM 12/21 Official NWS Obs ...Orange County... Warwick 4.8 in 0700 AM 12/21 COCORAHS Warwick 3.9 W 4.6 in 0600 AM 12/21 COCORAHS Port Jervis 4.5 in 0630 AM 12/21 COCORAHS 3 NNE Unionville 4.2 in 0430 AM 12/21 Public Monroe 4.1 in 0620 AM 12/21 Trained Spotter Greenwood Lake 4.0 in 0800 AM 12/21 COCORAHS ...Putnam County... Cold Spring 2.7 in 0715 AM 12/21 COCORAHS Nelsonville 0.3 S 2.5 in 0715 AM 12/21 COCORAHS ...Queens County... Little Neck 0.3 SE 2.7 in 0730 AM 12/21 COCORAHS 1 W Elmhurst 2.0 in 0640 AM 12/21 Public Howard Beach 2.0 in 0700 AM 12/21 COCORAHS 1 E Jackson Heights 2.0 in 0700 AM 12/21 Official NWS Obs NYC/JFK 1.8 in 0700 AM 12/21 Official NWS Obs ...Richmond County... 1 E New Dorp 3.0 in 0730 AM 12/21 Public ...Rockland County... Stony Point 3.0 in 0700 AM 12/21 COCORAHS ...Suffolk County... 1 NW Dix Hills 2.1 in 0710 AM 12/21 NWS Employee Commack 1.3 SW 2.0 in 0700 AM 12/21 COCORAHS Centerport 1.9 in 0700 AM 12/21 COOP Islip Airport 1.9 in 0700 AM 12/21 Official NWS Obs East Quogue 1.0 in 0830 AM 12/21 NWS Employee Mount Sinai 1.0 in 0800 AM 12/21 COOP Blue Point 0.3 ENE 0.8 in 0700 AM 12/21 COCORAHS Upton 0.6 in 0700 AM 12/21 Official NWS Obs Baiting Hollow 0.5 in 0700 AM 12/21 COOP ...Westchester County... Shrub Oak 2.0 in 0700 AM 12/21 COOP Pelham 1.5 in 0745 AM 12/21 Public South Salem 1.3 in 0715 AM 12/21 COCORAHS &&

It's definitely getting weaker. You can see weather systems moving significantly slower all across the country. WX/PT

On the European model the Friday night storm system is a bit further northwest of last ECMWF run. I'm not sure it's going to make a difference. We'll see what tomorrow brings. Again this has very little time to turn into anything. WX/PT https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ec-fast/2024121800/ec-fast_z500_mslp_us_4.png