Wxoutlooksblog
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Just tiny baby shifts east with the track though it's not really going to make that much of a difference. The cold air is gone and winds are gusting up to 60mph out of the east-southeast. Bring on the next one. WX/PT
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The surface high pressure is horribly located for snow. The HP source of cold air must be over Ontario stretching into the mid west and Great Lakes. There is no likelihood of this storm being all or mostly snow for any coastal locations as long as the antecedent HP moves east into the Atlantic. Could the storm actually wrap the HP back into its circulation? It's extremely rare for that to happen. WX/PT
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Track on the GFS has changed from over eastern PA to over Queens. That's a pretty big shift and it may not be done trending east. Today will be keeping an eye on the ensembles and other models to see if they verify this trend east or go even further with it. Obviously, the GEFS last night was over the BM and perfect for the snowbomb for the entire region. Will the operationals trend that way over time? We'll see. WX/PT
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There also might be a possibility that a trough over the western Great Lakes and upper mid west might late in the game (late Sunday night or Monday) act as a kicker. What I mean by that is that initially the storm hooks to the left and we go over to rain, but as it gains latitude it turns back e-ne. That is IMO possibly something to watch which could happen. Could it change the rain back to snow or would it be too late? Too early to know. WX/PT
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This looks to me like it's still going to be a rain track for the coast. But since the HP is over NY State it's possible coastal areas could start out with some snow, sleet, or freezing rain. WX/PT
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The problem for the models is Friday's' storm out at sea which plays a huge role in determining the placement of surface features and where the weakness sets up for low pressure to track over Sun-Mon. You will notice that GFS and CMC have the Friday storm further north and west and then everything else after that shifts further north and west. Right now we just do not know which solution is more on the money. The bigger problem is the lack of blocking as confluence over the Canadian Maritimes exits way too quickly. WX/PT
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It will be fascinating to see if and when the European goes back to the coastal snowbomb. It may or may not but whatever it does I think will probably give us a clue. WX/PT
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I think 1-2"/hour rates are not out of the question for whoever is under the best dynamics. 2-5" nw 4-7" se sounds reasonable with a few isolated 8" amounts mainly over eastern LI and southern Ct. WX/PT
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We have to keep a sharp eye on maps tomorrow. If by chance the low develops faster a little further south and still tracks up the coast it could increase amounts dramatically and we'd be talking 6-10". WSW criteria. I do not think that's going to happen but it's not out of the question. Tonight has been definitely a trend towards more robust a storm. WX/PT
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Enso state quite different but in some other respects tomorrow night's 1-4" storm could analog well with an early January storm in another dead winter, 1980 (79-80). I think it might have been January 3rd. Initially this storm could over-perform to our south and west over some areas. As it moves in however, it moves out as dry air lessens snowfall rates and the storm moves rapidly e-ne. WX/PT
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NAM starts the storm quite far south moves it into Georgia and South Carolina. It's still quite early for the NAM which doesn't usually get it right until inside 24 hours, but it appears that the storm has hard time intensifying and turning up the coast. Yet snow is about to move in during the early morning hours Friday. Right now, NAM says no big deal just a little snow. WX/PT
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My thinking is that the track will probably end up a bit south and east of ideal. That said, again southern NJ and eastern Long Island could jackpot with 6-10" in a few spots but more likely 3-8" closer to NYC. Less north/west more south/east. If the ECMWF ends up being or trending more towards the UKMET, I'll keep the idea of a repeat of Monday's near miss in the back of my mind. WX/PT
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I think the reason is that all of the models including the ECMWF have been shaky this season. 5 or 6 years ago, even 3 years ago with the Euro maps we see today there's be far more excitement because the European seemed to be verifying a little better. Also, we're still not in an ideal pattern for east coast storms, the kind that dump all along I-95 and coastal areas. We'll see if we're able to change the tide this Thursday-Friday. WX/PT
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Consistent with the pattern, odds are the track of this is either good for snow or again further south and east. WX/PT
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If you do not have a flake by now on Long Island, you're probably unlikely to see them unless you get a flurry on the backside of this. Dry air is building in and it would appear the leading area of snow is beginning to be suppressed to the e-se. WX/PT
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I had that 10-15 minutes ago. WX/PT
