Wxoutlooksblog

On the maps that came out this afternoon it was mostly good. The European was marginal at the peak of the storm, GFS good. But it's way too early to draw any conclusions. WX/PT

Looking just about perfect. The biggest risk is that this is so far in advance of the time-frame, too much can happen to mess it up. We know these maps are going to change though we might not want them to. WX/PT

Yes I am. WX/PT

This may end up looking like the Euro. WX/PT

I'm loving the Feb 13-14 potential. There is great antecedent cold HP we just need to lock it in and it's very close to happening. It would not take a big shift to bury many locations along and even east of I-95. WX/PT

Yes I am. That's why amounts are so much less northwest of NYC. WX/PT

I wouldn't quite agree. There is more variability in all the models however the Euro had consistently indicated this storm would affect us while other models most notably the GFS did not. On one run the NAM was a complete miss. The fact that one location may get 6" instead of 9" or 11" doesn't make the model erratic. It's consistently shown the track close enough with the precipitation to be consistently affecting the same areas to a slightly greater/lesser degree. I'll take it. An accurate forecast can be made by it. The GFS? No. Add to that the fact that with a storm like this on the western side amounts drop off sharply. You got to take that into account. It's not the model, it's the nature of this kind of a storm. WX/PT

My morning update. I may need to lower southern New Jersey amounts pending 18Z and 00Z runs and observations/radar. Yes it's going to move to 100 miles e-se of Cape Cod per latest Euro. Moving into nowcasting mode. WX/PT For the NYC Metro Region, the National Weather Service has upgraded our Winter Storm Watch to a Winter Storm Warning valid through Saturday. It will snow off and on all day today leaving a dusting to an inch of snow in spots as an arctic front passes southeastward across the region squeezing out the moisture in the atmosphere. Behind that front brutally cold north northeasterly winds will increase driving temperatures downward into the upper teens and lower 20s tonight. Meanwhile our storm is taking shape off the Florida coast as I write. It will move northward to offshore of the Carolinas tonight and from there northeastward to near Cape Cod by tomorrow afternoon. The main event gets underway tonight between 7-10PM as snow will overspread our area from south to north. It will be light at first but heavier snow bands will move into the region during the early morning hours Saturday dropping 1-2"/hour over the city and western LI and 2-4"/hour over Suffolk County where a Blizzard Warning is in effect. Winds will gust to near 60MPH during the storm causing white-outs and near blizzard conditions with blowing and drifting of snow and near zero visibilities especially over eastern LI and southeastern Ct. Thundersnow possible. Snow should taper off and end around 3-5PM Saturday. Amounts expected--NW New Jersey 3-6", Just NW of NYC and interior southern NJ including Rockland and Westchester oounties 4-8", NYC five boroughs 7-11", Western LI/Nassau western coastal CT 8-14", Southern Coastal New Jersey and western Suffolk Cty 12-18", The Twin Forks/East End of LI and Southeastern Ct 16-22". If you're thinking of escaping to Boston 18-24" there. Stay Safe!!

It's not. The models do not typically trend in one direction in "all together now" fashion and then it's over. They do go back and forth. This is how it is every major winter storm or most. One model run from one model two days before the storm is not a clincher or "cancels" the storm. There will be more changes on all of the models tomorrow. WX/PT

Ok at 72 hours it is a tad bit east of where it was last run. But it's not by that much and certainly within the realm of possibility that this ticks back west towards the coast tomorrow. WX/PT

Euro is already more tucked. WX/PT

I totally agree with this. At least in most cases. WX/PT

There is no trend. You had about 4 consecutive maybe 5 consecutive runs of 20"+ snows in NYC, now one run of the Euro giving 6-10" still a very big snowfall by NYC standards. This can easily switch back. When you're comparing the Euro to the GFS you're comparing apples to oranges not apples to apples. There is no trend established yet and these models are not interacting with each other. WX/PT

The kicker is not going to allow this system to jackpot for inland areas north and west of NYC. It's also preventing the coast from going over to rain. WX/PT

There is nothing here to weep about tonight. If you live north and west of NYC the chances are high that you'll get less snow. This storm will be the most for the coast. WX/PT

On the Euro you have a 970 or so mb low over Martha's Vineyard the chances are it's been snowing for 18 hours here at times heavily. This is not bad at all. The only problem I detect has been there all along. It's the western upper Great Lakes system which is to some extent acting as a kicker. But this run was in my book excellent. The storm's still there. It didn't swing east like the GFS. WX/PT

A bomb over Cape Cod-just about Martha's Vineyard at 96 hours. Most of us here in the NYC Metro Region should have just barely gotten into the heaviest snowfall if this right. It should be ending early Saturday night. West and northwest of NYC less snow should fall. It's a little faster moving but no major changes. WX/PT

Euro differences tonight mainly noise. At 72 hours it's a hair east southeast of last run and slightly weaker system but it's really insignificant in the scope of things. It's still in a good spot and likely to bomb out. WX/PT

It reverts back to before the models slowed this storm down yesterday. The old pattern and she takes off like a rocket. A relatively shorter period of snow with significantly lower amounts and western sections barely get anything. WX/PT

As I said last night the GFS is stubborn with these solutions. The other models will jump around a bit more. All we need for a snow forecast here is for the European model to hold where it is. If we see the European model start trending further out to the east our big snowstorm is in trouble. WX/PT

NAM is in range at 6-18 hours. We have a couple of days yet prior to then. Explaining this. There are certain patterns in which NAM does very well out to 48-60 hours. I do not think we're in one of those patterns. WX/PT

Nam is worthless until you're within 60 hours really. Even then, take it with a grain of salt. WX/PT

For the NYC Metro Region for now though I'm not yet mentioning exact amounts in my official forecast, if the European model track holds and other models trend towards it I'm thinking of this as a 12-18" storm for NYC & points north/east/southern NJ, etc. Less as you go north and west. But if the track is a hair further to the left, you could bump this up another 6". If the track is a hair to the right you could bump this down 6-8". If the track becomes too tucked in, then you go 5-10" with mixing or temporary changeover issues. Again, not going official with these numbers yet. While an outlier, there is a history of these kinds of storms in this kind of winter slipping altogether out to our south and east leaving us high and dry and that possibility is still IMO not out of the question. WX/PT

Potentially blizzard conditions someplace. Maybe here. WX/PT