Wxoutlooksblog

This is fantasy range for the GFS but it may worth noting that this heat was gone on 3 out of the last 4 runs of the model. Let's wait a few more days before believing this kind of thing. If it's right, we will have 90+ days during the middle of June. WX/PT

NYC can still have a very hot summer even without ANY 90 degree days in June. Two cases in point, 1955, and 1977. WX/PT

This weekend looks like a scorcher but it is interesting to note the differences in temperature on the 00Z 5/19 NAM FOUS as of 12Z Saturday with PHL being the hottest BTV the second hottest, then ALB, then LGA with BOS being the coolest. WX/PT

Most of tonight's computer guidance appears to be coming a tad bit warmer than at 12Z. May 20th-22nd will depend on the exact position of the Bermuda high but barring any b-door front it looks very warm to perhaps hot. And most of the models earlier indicated more very warn to possibly hot weather towards the last week of the month. WX/PT

Don't give up on the heat! A number of very hot summers in NYC have been slow to start. Some of them include 1961, 1966, 1983, 1995, 1999, and 2005. A few of these were also La Nina summers. There's some hint of much warmer weather during the May 21st-May 23rd time-frame. WX/PT

It's a very bad pattern. I think we'll hit 70 late this week, maybe even 75 or 78 but after next weekend, we're going to be below normal temps and near normal precip for a while IMO. I don't think Central Park is going to get to 80 this month. Though we should see much more warmth possibly heat starting around mid or late May. WX/PT

NYC might get close to 80 degrees on Thursday but I think probably tops out around 78 or 79. But the two factors that could hold temperatures lower are cloudcover and the winds being too southerly off of the still relatively cool ocean waters south of LI. Tomorrow NYC should get to 76 or 77. I like the model trends overnight some subtle hints of the jet stream relaxing in the fantasy range. It's good to see the storm track begin to shift further north even by just a little bit. WX/PT

I doubt it will look like this when we get closer in time, but this is what warmth looks like. Notice the confluence over the northeastern U.S. and se Canada is gone. Again, do not be surprised when the next run of the GFS looks completely different. WX/PT

In New Jersey near Philadelphia maybe. In NYC that kind of outcome is unlikely. There's a chance that the warmest day of the week in NYC would be Tuesday. On Thursday the front separating the warmer air from cooler maritime air mass will be close by. WX/PT

First of all, you have to slow things down. The jet is super-charged with one piece of energy after another moving across the CONUS from the west coast to the east coast. There is no room or time for a high pressure center to sit and pump warm humid air northeastward. There is no Bermuda High. Everything is moving along from west to east. If this continued it would probably yield a cooler and wetter than average summer. But it's unlikely it will continue since this kind of pattern often does occur in April. As we get into May look for the westeriies to begin to retreat northward and the pattern to gradually relax. It might take until the end of May or the beginning of June. I hope not. WX/PT

I am skeptical. There is too much energy in the upper atmosphere to allow it with little if any sustained heat source. There will be lots of showers and thunderstorms in the warmer air for any brief period of time we're in it. Lots of cold air aloft. The atmosphere will destabilize quickly with any daytime heating. We might eke out a 78 one day. WX/PT

It's according to the dynamics. When intensity drops off it becomes more rain/sleet than snow and vica versa.. WX/PT

This storm is/was (at least for coastal locations) all according to where the better dynamics and heaviest snowfall lasted the longest. Generally like almost every storm system this season, it has moved too fast and most of the intensity has slipped eastward too quickly for coastal sections. Most of the remainder is either non-accumulating wet snow and then eventually just plain drizzle and fog. The next chance is Saturday and after than perhaps March 23rd-24th. WX/PT

Nam 3Km going with a pasting followed by lighter snow possibly a mix. I'm with that idea, in the 2-5" range primarily on grassy surfaces but not exclusively on grassy surfaces. WX/PT

The wind will be over for now before you know it and it will be time to start focusing in on the potential winter storm at the end of this work week. Almost all of the models have trended towards a more southern track with a secondary coastal low becoming the primary and locking in the cold air. First the mild temperatures Monday Tuesday and Wednesday. WX/PT

I also do not understand why everyone's focus has turned to mid March which is more than a month away. We are following ensemble and operational model products which are not fool-proof and sometimes in error. The one constant about the weather is that it's always changing. WX/PT

Why do you say that? It is not unusual for us to get some mild weather in February and very common for us to get warmth prior to late season snowstorms. WX/PT

If it's going to be this fast and weak it's a much smaller scale storm. But I think the Euro is probably too fast at this point. We'll see. WX/PT

UKIE is erratic and probably developing this storm too far north and east, actually the same wrong solution it kept coming up with last time. We'll see if it doesn't change back closer to what it looked like last night in a day or two. WX/PT

Western Ridge flattens out on the Euro so it's progressive and instead it has two storms neither of which will nail us. But these maps are going to change. This is not the final solution. Flattening of the ridge out west too quickly probably an error. WX/PT

If the western ridge stays back and allows this storm to develop and come up the coast you'd almost automatically have a higher ceiling than with the last one because there is no kicker. There is no clipper or notable northern stream system moving in right behind this. It can take its sweet time. As long as that ridge out west stays put. WX/PT

The only model I'm looking at that hasn't jumped way west with the storm is the GEFS. And the GEFS did jump the opposite way, to the east, but not really that much. We know the models will shift around some more and we know from extremely recent history that the first models to lock in the correct track will be the European and the Canadian models. WX/PT

Is this is going to develop and come up the coast the GFS will be the last to show it, the Euro or CMC probably the first. WX/PT

And now this is coming back. Just because the models drop a storm for a day or two doesn't mean they're not going to come back. The mistake was progressing the western ridge eastward too quickly. WX/PT

I have a feeling we might be getting a little more precipitation than we're expecting or planning on from this relatively weak coastal low later today (not much later) into Tuesday and it will probably fall in a variety of precip-types. WX/PT