Wxoutlooksblog
-
Posts
943 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by Wxoutlooksblog
-
Further south, four closed isobars as opposed to one on the last run, this could be huge if it comes north. WX/PT
-
I didn't see this thread until now, good to see it. I think this appears to have major maybe historic potential. The ceiling is higher than for most events this year because it's on the cusp of a pattern change and as we lead into it, if the movement of the storm slows just a little the trough can sharpen up and tuck it in just enough to put us in very heavy snow. The storm could have both GOM and Atlantic moisture as well. I just posted all the maps in the wrong thread but that's how the day has been. WX/PT
-
For the weekend, all the models at least getting closer with a snow-blitz. CMC almost perfect track. UKMET came much closer just a hair east of ideal, GFS came closer but has a ways to go. Still watching this here it seems many have given up on it prematurely. WX/PT
-
I'm still tracking next weekend's ocean storm which I do still believe is a threat to come up the east coast. I'm not saying it will but that it might. Back to your 18Z GFS. I liked it because it was slower than 12Z. If we can slow the speed of movement down, the trough might have a chance to deepen and go negative pulling this up the coast. WX/PT
-
I like the ECMWF of our potential storm (28th-30th) being east of North Carolina at 144 hours rather than the UKMET east of Montauk. When an ocean storm is going to shift towards the coast you would typically see it gain latitude more slowly. So slower is better. The trough has more time to sharpen up and go negative. If the storm shoots out too quickly you lose it. So even though this ECMWF still has it way out to sea, there's time to hook this in close enough for a big east coast snowstorm. Let's see what happens in the next 48-72 hours. WX/PT
-
A chance of rain or snow showers, no major storm here. The flow is too flat/fast and the northern and southern streams do not phase. Moisture from the southern system slips out well to our south and the snow showers we would get would be from the cold front. Onto the 28th-30th. WX/PT
-
Any threat for this Saturday is now just barely on life support. It would take the ECMWF to bring this back in a big way which IMO is unlikely at this point. The flow is just too flat, not negative tilt to any trough and at this time no reason to think it will happen. Could it? Yes. But it's a long shot. There will, however, be some additional threats beyond this time-frame to keep an eye on. The pattern remains good enough as there's plenty of cold. WX/PT
-
The pattern remains fairly decent for threats of snow around here in the 7-9 day time-frame and a storm could be modeled closer to us within a shorter time-frame than we are used to seeing because of the many shortwaves in both the northern and southern streams. But as long as things move fast it would keep the ceiling lower on any event. The problem shown on the GEPS is that beyond the 7-9-day time-frame the flow could flatten up even more with the modest ridge out west breaking down. If that happens, after perhaps an initial bout of extreme cold we could go at least temporarily back to a more December-like pattern. That said, this is just modeling and solutions can change fast. So we wait and see. WX/PT
-
I think there's a possibility this threat might look better again by tonight or tomorrow. It's still 3-4 days away depending on timing which is very uncertain atm. WX/PT
-
I do not agree with this. It is one run cycle during which every model is somewhat flatter/further south and east and the ECMWF is only very slightly further south and east & importantly to note, slower. That slowness continues the threat into Sunday with some question marks. One is timing. There are numerous impulses of energy s/w's into the southern stream which could develop. Which one is it going to be or will it be consolidated into one? The European IMO keeps this threat in play maybe another 12 hours later. The Euro is not bad. It holds serve. WX/PT
-
The question is probably going to end up being the northward extend of this event. I may end up eating my words here but I do not think there are any precip-type issues, most likely snow or no. The HP looks pretty good, the low track about 6-12 hours later/slower than at 12Z which IMO is good. I have a feeling we are working ourselves into a snowy 7 days ahead. WX/PT
- 435 replies
-
- 10
-
-
-
I think we'll have a good idea which way this one is going to go in by tomorrow night or Wed. morning. The models have been extremely inconsistent in the medium range so I wouldn't put too much trust in the ECMWF, the only model so far really showing a hit up here. It would make some sense that locations to our south have a better chance of being hit by this snowstorm because the flow is a hair flatter than this passed week and there's actually a banana HP to our north/west in a pretty good position for snow. But how far north up the coast this storm makes it will probably be the question at hand the next 2-3 days. WX/PT
-
If I'm to believe the NAM fous data, there might be 5 minutes of sleet and snow, after that, it's heavy heavy rain with winds 40-50mph gusting to 60mph. Possible thunder. Dramatic temperature spike Sunday going from around 10 early to 45 by midnight. Precip appears to begin around 7-9PM. WX/PT
-
I have a feeling there are a good number of additional shots ahead. I'm intrigued at the period around January 26th and January 30th. There's plenty more cold air and I think we're going to see some of the coldest air we've seen in about 4 years later this month. WX/PT
-
Just tiny baby shifts east with the track though it's not really going to make that much of a difference. The cold air is gone and winds are gusting up to 60mph out of the east-southeast. Bring on the next one. WX/PT
-
The surface high pressure is horribly located for snow. The HP source of cold air must be over Ontario stretching into the mid west and Great Lakes. There is no likelihood of this storm being all or mostly snow for any coastal locations as long as the antecedent HP moves east into the Atlantic. Could the storm actually wrap the HP back into its circulation? It's extremely rare for that to happen. WX/PT
-
Track on the GFS has changed from over eastern PA to over Queens. That's a pretty big shift and it may not be done trending east. Today will be keeping an eye on the ensembles and other models to see if they verify this trend east or go even further with it. Obviously, the GEFS last night was over the BM and perfect for the snowbomb for the entire region. Will the operationals trend that way over time? We'll see. WX/PT
-
There also might be a possibility that a trough over the western Great Lakes and upper mid west might late in the game (late Sunday night or Monday) act as a kicker. What I mean by that is that initially the storm hooks to the left and we go over to rain, but as it gains latitude it turns back e-ne. That is IMO possibly something to watch which could happen. Could it change the rain back to snow or would it be too late? Too early to know. WX/PT
-
This looks to me like it's still going to be a rain track for the coast. But since the HP is over NY State it's possible coastal areas could start out with some snow, sleet, or freezing rain. WX/PT
-
The problem for the models is Friday's' storm out at sea which plays a huge role in determining the placement of surface features and where the weakness sets up for low pressure to track over Sun-Mon. You will notice that GFS and CMC have the Friday storm further north and west and then everything else after that shifts further north and west. Right now we just do not know which solution is more on the money. The bigger problem is the lack of blocking as confluence over the Canadian Maritimes exits way too quickly. WX/PT
-
It will be fascinating to see if and when the European goes back to the coastal snowbomb. It may or may not but whatever it does I think will probably give us a clue. WX/PT
-
I think 1-2"/hour rates are not out of the question for whoever is under the best dynamics. 2-5" nw 4-7" se sounds reasonable with a few isolated 8" amounts mainly over eastern LI and southern Ct. WX/PT
-
We have to keep a sharp eye on maps tomorrow. If by chance the low develops faster a little further south and still tracks up the coast it could increase amounts dramatically and we'd be talking 6-10". WSW criteria. I do not think that's going to happen but it's not out of the question. Tonight has been definitely a trend towards more robust a storm. WX/PT
- 527 replies
-
- 10
-
-
Enso state quite different but in some other respects tomorrow night's 1-4" storm could analog well with an early January storm in another dead winter, 1980 (79-80). I think it might have been January 3rd. Initially this storm could over-perform to our south and west over some areas. As it moves in however, it moves out as dry air lessens snowfall rates and the storm moves rapidly e-ne. WX/PT