Wxoutlooksblog

While there may be some similarities, the 2/13/14 storm didn't have a rapidly northeastward advancing warmer layer at 700mb. This one does. WX/PT

For the 10-14" numbers you need an intensifying coastal well south of our latitude. This one intensifies near Cape Cod, too late to wrap the cold air around at all levels. WX/PT

Spot-on. WX/PT

Why? Antecedent HP is retreating. WX/PT

Keep in mind, the primary low holds on and the coastal albeit too close to the coast, never takes over and becomes dominant. So the flow of warmer air at high levels is around the primary. Most of the precip is over, but most areas can still get a few hours of sleet or sleet/snow mix. Snow amounts are going to be a little lower than if we had rapidly deepening coastal low offshore completely taking over and the primary washing or nearly washing out. I think coastal sections are looking at 5-9" inland n and west 9-12". WX/PT

It might. But do not misinterpret what the Euro and to a greater extent other models have shown. The thrill of this event will be the heavy snow. When the dynamics begin to lift to our north and east some warmer air at upper levels causes some mixing and possibly a brief changeover Sunday night. But by the time this happens almost all the most significant precipitation most likely has fallen. Therefore the greater snow amounts we are seeing on the GFS and the operational Euro. Euro AI is probably overdoing the influx of warmer air at the upper levels as I suspect is NAM. WX/PT

I really do suspect that this is spot on. Unless there are repeated corrections in the modeling south and east, I think this will most likely be the summary of the storm. WX/PT

Morning or mid-day Sunday into late Sunday night or early Monday. WX/PT

And the answer may be in what happens with the 50/50 low and antecedent HP. And we have different schools of thought on that as well. WX/PT

Perfectly stated. And we do not know the answer for sure yet. We have two distinctly different schools of thought in the modeling. WX/PT

If a more amped situation verifies than what we see now, you're going mix or changeover to sleet and rain and have about 4-6" less than an all snow solution would give you. And there are still 3 days of modeling prior to the onset of the storm. Normally solutions closer in time do get a little more amped but not always. We'll see. But I can totally understand where Lee Goldberg was coming from. WX/PT

Following radar the models and surface obs another hour. WX/PT

I said it could. Now I believe it won't. WX

Dynamics are out over the ocean. Guidance never showed any. We need big flakes gonna be tough to get them. WX/PT

Those areas have been over-performing for 2 years or more. I think this time will be no exception. When I say there's a good chance this could over perform I'm not referring to all locations. There are different forces at play here. You have the signs that the coastal will indirectly enhance the snowfall rates here and colder air will also squeeze out a little more moisture. But there is also a drier punch of air which will move in from the west and the clipper moving across the northern tier will be trying to kick this system out to the east. So we just have to see what forces win out. The heaviest precipitation on the guidance was always late this afternoon and early this evening. To that extent nothing has changed. But this is NOT a big storm for us. Maybe we can squeeze out another inch or two some places another three like the north shore of eastern LI. WX/PT

Radar, temperatures, and the HRRR model which has been a little faster moving elements than is actually happening but otherwise accurate. WX/PT

I think there's a good chance. WX/PT

I believe we will go WAY over that for this season. WX/PT

We've only had one month. And in that month, this year beats 93/94. WX/PT

I like the western ridge position and the fact that the se ridge is slightly suppressed. We'll see. WX/PT

I was thinking that for later in January, even if the subtropical jet became a little more active, the tendency would be for the dominant northern stream to result in either phase up too soon with a storm hooking too far to the left or the streams remaining separate too long and a storm being overly suppressed initially. WX/PT

I was more referring to the subtropical jet with reference to our snow events this season. I should have been clearer. WX/PT

I think we can have a few snow threats possibly near misses or maybe we luck out. However, I think our best chances for a KU storm would likely come in February. Just a hunch here. The pattern is still a dry one and any subtropical jet activity has been almost if not completely a non-factor. This could continue another few weeks. I do think that in the longterm (Spring/Summer) we are on the road to extremely dry conditions. WX/PT

Count me as not skeptical at all. Winter has had a great start. We will get our snow when cold fronts stall just to our south and east and waves of low pressure move up along them. We are already ahead of the pace of most recent winter seasons on snowfall and look to continue the pace by mid January. As I previously noted, there's a strong cold front which was timed for January 12th and is now timed for Jan 10th or 11th. Patience. WX/PT

I think the models are gradually trending colder. Most of the guidance has been indicating a strong cold front around the 11th of the month. Yesterday the front was on the 12th so it's moved a day earlier on today's maps. I do have the feeling it's going to be below normal more often than above and that the duration of warmer temperatures is getting shorter. WX/PT