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Wxoutlooksblog

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  1. Wxoutlooksblog
    50% chance. More clouds and storms in the area. WX/PT
  2. Wxoutlooksblog
  3. Wxoutlooksblog
    I think twice is most likely, a shot at three times, also a shot at one or zero times. It will be interesting to see how this unfolds. Daily high temperatures probably occurring earlier in the day than usual. WX/PT
  4. Wxoutlooksblog
    Looking at the GFS tonight I think there's a developing possibility that Central Park may not hit 90 degrees all week into the weekend. Yes it still may be a long shot, but on the latest GFS maps the high pressure is too far north and it does not really move south, it moves east and what replaces by the weekend is a backdoor cold front, a weak one at that, but enough to trigger showers thunderstorms and lots of clouds to keep temperatures down. We shall see about this. WX/PT
  5. Wxoutlooksblog
    I knew this. There is no question in my mind that they had 26. There might be another missing too. I recall there was more than one in September. WX/PT
  6. Wxoutlooksblog
    Of course it could and actually exceeded that number as recently as 2022. WX/PT
  7. Wxoutlooksblog
    We'll see if the over the top heat scenario doesn't repeat throughout this summer. I do not often remember this from way back in the 50s and 60s and only on rare occasions in the 1970s. Could it be partly a function of climate change that has almost permanently relocated summertime ridges further north that they would have been years ago? If this continues it will have the effect or reducing the overall number or 90+ days at Central Park. Maybe the park ends up with 5-11 90+ days rather than the 25+ which might have been while Burlington Vt notches the 25+. WX/PT
  8. Wxoutlooksblog
    Correcting myself after viewing the 12Z GFS. Daily high temps NYC Mon-84 Tues-89 Wed-91 Thurs-93 Fri-94 Sat-88 Sun-89 So you have a 3-day garden variety heatwave in NYC. Readings are for Central Park. WX/PT
  9. Wxoutlooksblog
    I think it's way to early to know for sure but it does now feel as though we are entering a 1966 type summer pattern. On the shorter range guidance however, the heat initially goes over the top. I'm noting on NAM that Burlington and Albany are the hottest spots on Tuesday and even Boston is warmer than NYC. So NYC may barely make it to 90 on Tuesday while the other locations easily get there. By Thursday or Friday mid-upper 90s are likely for most of the area. WX/PT
  10. Wxoutlooksblog
    Which Monday? Very unlikely the 24th. A cold front will likely have come through late on the 22nd or the 23rd. WX/PT
  11. Wxoutlooksblog
    I did that in August 1974 during a largely over the top heatwave. I remember enjoying the near or record warm temperatures at the Lakes of the Clouds Hut. WX/PT
  12. Wxoutlooksblog
    Yes this is one of the things I've mentioned as we watched the different model solutions come in. The over the top can still bring us a few hot days but less likely the 100 degree kind of heat and afternoon onshore winds drop temperatures nearer the coast meaning our daily maximums tend to be at or before 1PM. So while it may be 100 degrees in Burlington Vt Central Park can be 89 or 91 and struggling to get even there. Also this kind of set up can minimize our number of 90+ days. In prior posts I've mentioned I thought we might see this sort of over the top this summer season. WX/PT
  13. Wxoutlooksblog
    To further illustrate the point I just made, this is probably not 90+ degree heat for most of the NYC Metro Region. A b-door front came through on the 20th and winds here are light but right off of the ocean from the southeast. A backdoor front such as this could eliminate 2 or 3 of the potential very hot days at the end of next week holding temperatures in the mid-upper 80s or lower. Then if you do follow the 18Z run of the GFS which I personally wouldn't take too seriously at this point, when the winds finally do back around they are from the south-southwest ushering in 75 degree dew points and not 95 degree heat. There are worlds of differences from one model to another and run to run on the same model right now. So while I tend to believe it's going to come back to at least 3 days of heat, I'd be careful about betting on 5 at this moment. WX/PT
  14. Wxoutlooksblog
    And it depends on your location. My posts usually reference Central Park with statistics. There's lots of uncertainty where the core of the heat next week is going to end up. How any backdoor cold fronts may affect it. Thunderstorm activity, etc. Yes we could have 4-6 90+ days at the Park if the European model maps of yesterday and today verify. WX/PT
  15. Wxoutlooksblog
    And might have two or three. WX/PT
  16. Wxoutlooksblog
    Situation where backdoor fronts can make it hotter because there is little if any genuinely cooler air behind them and they force the winds to go more west-northwesterly out ahead of them downsloping and compression making it hotter. Now I'm seeing some 100s. WX/PT
  17. Wxoutlooksblog
    I'm looking for historic heat next week because the Euro has been hinting at it but the GFS is not showing it. Normally the GFS is the model that would go nuts with this kind of heat. But it's showing winds too southerly, looks like for coastal sections and the big cities relatively typical lower 90s if that and cooler at the shore. But Euro suggest the more westerly winds and higher temperatures. We'll see. The map below would be low-mid 90s for most of us big cities and closer to the coast. WX/PT
  18. Wxoutlooksblog
    Looks like heavy showers & storms overnight tonight. The 12Z GFS has heat from 6/17 to the end of the run. It is all beyond 300 hours and will probably change but who knows. WX/PT
  19. Wxoutlooksblog
    Most of the heat this season IMO is likely to go over the top or be very short-lived. The jet stream is going to set up and already is set up further south of normal, the Bermuda HP further south and east of normal. This in combination with the recurrent upper low over eastern Canada and the nw Atlantic wrapping b-door fronts and the like, days of cyclonic flow and of course the blocking. I'm projecting 5-11 90+ days mostly from mid July to mid August. Of course overnight minimums will keep us above normal overall on temps. But I'm not seeing an extremely hot summer incoming. WX/PT
  20. Wxoutlooksblog
    I think slight variations on this pattern could last most of the summer. I'm not looking for much heat but if there is some most of it from mid July to mid August. Then we'll see the tropics perk up with most vulnerable areas IMO the Gulf Coast, southeast U.S. coast, and islands in the tropics. I'm looking for early recurvature thinking that all features will be slightly south and east of their usual position on the maps. WX/PT
  21. Wxoutlooksblog
    I'd say any heat in the northeast is very unlikely prior to June 15th with a lower than normal probability of any heat for the remainder of June. Out west, it's the reverse. They will bake. WX/PT
  22. Wxoutlooksblog
    Not really seeing how we can get any heat into the NYC Metro Region with a pattern like this. WX/PT
  23. Wxoutlooksblog
    I'm not sure if these maps are the stuff low 90s are really made of in this pattern which has only slightly and temporarily changed. But I could see borderline heat in the 86-91 degree range across the region each day. And maybe Central Park just barely touches 90 one or two of the days. I could see that, especially Wednesday. WX/PT
  24. Wxoutlooksblog
    I think that if anything, temperatures will probably over perform this week Tues-Thurs especially Wednesday. WX/PT
  25. Wxoutlooksblog
    From what I am observing on the maps it would appear that there could be at least a couple of days of early season borderline heat next week per the Euro Op, Euro AI, and the CMC. GFS is totally not on board for this. We are talking upper 80s to perhaps low 90s. Winds are w-sw. WX/PT
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