Wxoutlooksblog

On the Euro you have a 970 or so mb low over Martha's Vineyard the chances are it's been snowing for 18 hours here at times heavily. This is not bad at all. The only problem I detect has been there all along. It's the western upper Great Lakes system which is to some extent acting as a kicker. But this run was in my book excellent. The storm's still there. It didn't swing east like the GFS. WX/PT

A bomb over Cape Cod-just about Martha's Vineyard at 96 hours. Most of us here in the NYC Metro Region should have just barely gotten into the heaviest snowfall if this right. It should be ending early Saturday night. West and northwest of NYC less snow should fall. It's a little faster moving but no major changes. WX/PT

Euro differences tonight mainly noise. At 72 hours it's a hair east southeast of last run and slightly weaker system but it's really insignificant in the scope of things. It's still in a good spot and likely to bomb out. WX/PT

It reverts back to before the models slowed this storm down yesterday. The old pattern and she takes off like a rocket. A relatively shorter period of snow with significantly lower amounts and western sections barely get anything. WX/PT

As I said last night the GFS is stubborn with these solutions. The other models will jump around a bit more. All we need for a snow forecast here is for the European model to hold where it is. If we see the European model start trending further out to the east our big snowstorm is in trouble. WX/PT

NAM is in range at 6-18 hours. We have a couple of days yet prior to then. Explaining this. There are certain patterns in which NAM does very well out to 48-60 hours. I do not think we're in one of those patterns. WX/PT

Nam is worthless until you're within 60 hours really. Even then, take it with a grain of salt. WX/PT

For the NYC Metro Region for now though I'm not yet mentioning exact amounts in my official forecast, if the European model track holds and other models trend towards it I'm thinking of this as a 12-18" storm for NYC & points north/east/southern NJ, etc. Less as you go north and west. But if the track is a hair further to the left, you could bump this up another 6". If the track is a hair to the right you could bump this down 6-8". If the track becomes too tucked in, then you go 5-10" with mixing or temporary changeover issues. Again, not going official with these numbers yet. While an outlier, there is a history of these kinds of storms in this kind of winter slipping altogether out to our south and east leaving us high and dry and that possibility is still IMO not out of the question. WX/PT

Potentially blizzard conditions someplace. Maybe here. WX/PT

I think that's still a little uncertain. Certainly forward movement has slowed on all of the models. I'm just a little concerned because it's still early. The tick further left with the track and we're looking at an even bigger more intense storm. Given the bombogenesis and the current track, the intensity of the snow could be amazing....we'd be talking 1-3"/hour rates. We'll see what happens in the next 2-3 run cycles. WX/PT

Euro looks like about 12-18" snow. I do not have precip maps but given that track, it's a historic storm for coastal sections. WX/PT

This looks pretty good to me. Unless it were to turn due east or e-ne from here this would be a big hit for coastal sections. It's a hair to the left of last night's run. WX/PT

You also need it tucked inside to get rain over coastal sections. WX/PT

I continue to be impressed with how the forward movement of the storm is slowing down on all of the models. We've gone from Saturday evening in the Gulf of Maine to Saturday evening just e of Cape Cod. This is a big improvement and changes this from potentially a 12 hour event to potentially a 17 or 18 hour event. The GFS is trending towards the ECMWF. Do not be surprised if the 18Z run changes back a hair. The most important thing now is that the Euro is consistent with itself. If we can hold the Euro, improve on the CMC and the UKMET the GFS will eventually come around fully. WX/PT

Good luck with that. Sometimes it takes a few run cycles. GFS is notoriously erratic and CMC likes to stick to its guns. WX/PT

It is correct that this becomes a longer event. It's still moving fast but the Euro gave it another 4-6 hours on tonight's run. There's a little bit of confluence out ahead of it which is helping. The kicker low approaching the western upper Great Lakes is helping this to not come too close to us. Tomorrow and Wednesday we'll begin to find out where we're going with this event. WX/PT

If this happens, it could be historic. WX/PT

Through 96 compared to last run deeper trough but storm is just a hair ne of where it was, just noise really. WX/PT

We are not yet close to knowing exactly where this storm is going. Certain factors compared to last night favor a track closer to the coast while others favor a track further offshore and we do not know yet which set of factors is going to be predominant as we get closer to the weekend. For one, the eastern trough is sharper/deeper. This can work in our favor or draw the storm too close and flip us over to rain. However because of the progressive nature of the pattern, that right now does not seem likely. There's another storm approaching the western Great Lakes as our ocean storm is trying to gain latitude. That can act as a kicker. But it is very interesting to note as the storm moves northeast on the CMC, the further north it gets the slower it moves. This is a good thing. And the UKMET has trended a little to the left, also a good thing. We definitely do not want too strong a trend to the left because if it were to happen, we'd flip to rain. So I still think we're in a reasonably good position with where this could be going. WX/PT

Exactly. And there is little if any blocking here so beware. That's one of my concerns. When models start to tick left with the track we do not want to see them tick further left than what the Euro is doing (last 3 runs). WX/PT

The key is we are moving towards an "amazing outcome". The trend is your friend here. You would not want the European to jump too far west here as we already have a result of that with the CMC. I think the Euro places this track in an ideal spot for this time-frame. An historic storm certainly possible at this point. Just need a hair further west track, and not too much further west. WX/PT

The Euro is pretty much a lock for 6" or more probably a foot or more especially coastal locations wind driven snow zero visibilities the whole spectrum of blizzard conditions. WX/PT

That could become a problem. It could trend too far west. WX/PT

This beginning to have a February 5, 1978 feel to it. Of course many things are different. But that storm also started with a low over the ocean down off the southeast coast and came closer and closer to us as time went on. WX/PT

This is insane. The pressure gradient over eastern New England is ridiculous, 75mph+ winds. I do not have precip maps but given the track I would guess we are on the western edge of the heavier snow with the heaviest snowfall to our east. But the Euro is another model trending closer to us so we watch and wait: WX/PT