Wxoutlooksblog

Tonight it's WAR doing it. GFS seems determined to attain the 3 H's and that 100 degree heat at Central Park. WX/PT

Yes I posted a map like that late last night then this morning's run dropped it and 18Z brought it back. But it is very much in the time-frame during which the GFS is extremely poor and not to be relied upon. I posted to the map just to show what 100 degrees and the 3 H's would look like but we're nowhere near there yet. If the maps keep showing that and if other models jump on board, we will definitely have reason to talk it up some more and I do think it's possible that that may happen at some point in the next 8 weeks. Even though this current heatwave has ended in NYC we're still very much in an above normal temperature pattern. WX/PT

I'd give it at this point a 50% chance for Central Park. The point is that the front isn't getting here until overnight and we do not know exactly where the heaviest rain will fall as this first batch of showers/storms moves through. There could be a break and skies could partially clear out for an hour or two this afternoon in between showers/storms and it could get to 90. WX/PT

This is in the fantasy range on the GFS but if this ever happened, we'd have the 3 H's and very likely 100+ degrees in Central Park. WX/PT

I think everyone reacts differently to the heat and humidity. For some a tropical type climate is comfortable and others prefer the desert. WX/PT

Did Central Park drop off the map again? WX/PT

I think you'll be seeing the 3 H's in about 3 weeks. WX/PT

Park hit 92 and are now down to 77. WX/PT

Weak front passing through in combination with the sea breeze front doing a number over Long Island probably for the balance of the afternoon. WX/PT

Certainly. The latest maps have the appearance of one of the hottest summers of all time in this area. I'm not sure we can verify all the guidance, but if we do, we have a shot at the top 5 hottest summers. WX/PT

I'm totally on board for a hot week ahead. I'm also on board for numerous showers/storms today and tonight and most notably the likelihood of a line of storms busting through during the early morning hours Monday and a severe threat during the late afternoon and evening hours Monday with another storm possible Monday night. What I am questioning is the daytime heating hours on Monday. Several of models keep most of the action to our north and west over that time. It that is true temperatures could over-perform on Monday. While the old NAM has winds too southerly to allow that to mean much, the 3K has more westerly wind component along with the RGEM. In other words, upper 80s to perhaps 90 might not be out of the question for Monday prior to the severe threat later in the day and evening. The hottest days of the week as of now look to me to be Wednesday & Thursday. Central Park should pick up 4-5 more 90+ days this week bringing the monthly total to 8 or 9. WX/PT

Again, I think the models continue to overdo rainfall. Otherwise, I had started out with a prediction of 7 90+ days this month at Central Park and am now thinking we just might have a shot at their getting 8-10. WX/PT

IMO the rain is overdone on every model. We've seen them do this time over time recently. WX/PT

I agree with this. NYC's Central Park probably will not reach 90 this afternoon but IMO there is a 30-40% chance they do reach it. WX/PT

Unlikely but possible. I'd rank it a 30% chance. WX/PT

This front and its associated showers/storms never likely to ever get here. WX/PT

Interesting, all the cool fresh air masses and cold fronts are gradually washing out as they move se out of Canada. WX/PT

For most of the immediate NYC Metro Region those chances have been very low, most areas remaining dry. I suspect that that tendency will continue for a while. The models are overdoing moisture. WX/PT

I generally agree. The GFS and even the ensembles have been all over the place one run cooler one run hotter back and forth and continue to be. The Euro has been more consistent and accurate. I think this weekend will be increasingly muggy leading into some hot weather next week and that the first heatwave for NYC probably occurs next week. WX/PT

It depends on exactly how far westward it builds, and what exact position the ridge is in. It can push storms into the coast over the southeastern states or allow them to move up the coast or even force them (less likely) into the Gulf of Mexico. Or if the ridge is too strong, it can even hinder the development of tropical systems. Rules do not usually work in the world of weather because there are so many factors. La Nina ridge usually favors an active Atlantic tropical season but there are exceptions. WX/PT

I don't know about that. September maybe. But the blocking doesn't have to completely end in order for us to get a heatwave here. 2012 had a number of heatwaves with blocking. It is where exactly the weather systems are that set up the block and where we are within the jet stream flow at the time. There is more than one way to skin a cat and now the 18Z GEFS has the ridges together as one. The timing is getting better. We're still in the stage of 1-2 day surges of heat. What's next? We do not know. WX/PT

I have thought that the GFS is rushing it. I think we are still at this time prime for the 1-2 day surges maybe 3 in the 7/16-7/18 time-frame of the western ridge. I think WAR or a merger between WAR and the western ridge would more likely give us a prolonged heatwave particularly after 7/22. WX/PT

Another way of looking at it. We can continue to have extreme blocking but if the location of the blocking weather systems shifts to the east, we could end up in the western heat ridge for days and days with heatwaves. In other words, our location within the flow changes. So, there is really more than one way we can establish extended heat around here. WX/PT

I really prefer the ECMWF depiction of W.A.R. building westward over the GFS extending the western ridge northeastward. The GFS has been doing what it's going for a long time and it's been wrong time after time. Note the western ridge actually retrogrades a little bit too. It makes far more sense. There's still a little bit of blocking left here so I do not yet think we're into a heatwave at this point just another day or two. I think heatwave potential increases after the 20th or 21st. WX/PT

And here it goes, transition time: WX/PT