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Wxoutlooksblog

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  1. Wxoutlooksblog
    Nam has been miserable lately and you're talking about rainfall it generates 48-84 hours away. It completely missed on the thunderstorm activity 3 nights ago, and has been enthusiastic in terms of rainfall at times when we've gotten almost none. Let's wait with Nam and see what it looks like 12 hours in advance. It may look very different. I would go with a compromise between the ECMWF, GGEM, and GFS meaning that we'll still be on the northern flank of the precip but it could be ocasionally heavy in a few spots particularly as the GGEM has, way out east. I like the earlier/faster timing. WX/PT
  2. Wxoutlooksblog
    It appears to me at this time that the potential for any more 90 degree temperatures at Central Park has rapidly diminished this afternoon. I'd say looking at the latest model data that the only outside chance, and really unlikely IMO would be for Sunday the 18th. Newark might have a shot Sunday or Monday. But I do not see how the Park can get there Monday and it appears the pre-frontal trough and cold front are going to be charging south and east quickly Wednesday night and Thursday cutting off the flow of warm air into the region by mid-day Thursday and not allowing either Newark or the Park to get much above 82 or 83. That's my take at the moment given the latest guidance. And I think we are moving into a Autumn pattern pretty quickly that could also put an end to our long stretch of well above normal temperatures. What I'm saying is all subject to change as the models have been very poor and inconsistent for the last eight weeks, but that's how I see it now. WX/PT
  3. Wxoutlooksblog
    Yes GFS just now slowed up the front but the Euro has been speeding it up. GGEM about 12 hours faster. There's definitely timing uncertainty. WX/PT
  4. Wxoutlooksblog
    If you're talking about Newark, you have a shot at 90 on all 3 days. Central Park may not get there any of them but has probably the best shot depending on the timing of the cold front on Thursday. WX/PT
  5. Wxoutlooksblog
    It's amazing the tug of war the models get into as they're trying to sort out all the data only 7 days prior to a ridge building into the east on top of some kind of tropical system and two models completely different tracks differing by almost a thousand miles as to where this tropical system will go. GFS into the Atlantic threatening the eastern seaboard or GGEM into the Gulf of Mexico threatening the Gulf Coast. The GFS solution at this point brings more heat into the northeast, perhaps two days of around 90 degree temperatures while on the GGEM we are just on the edge of the ridge the same two days but could hit 90 on at least one of them. The models will continue to go back and forth and probably even swap solutions at some point before they settle on what's going to happen. The low confidence in choosing sides right now is that the only ensemble which supports the above scenarios slightly is the GEPS. We're still waiting for the EPS and GEFS to lend credibility to what the operational models are doing. WX/PT
  6. Wxoutlooksblog
    Things to look for this afternoon. Over the summer, the EPS was the leading model in forecasting the heat. It beat the operational Euro by a lot. If we're going to get that ridge to build in, the chances are we'll have to see it forecast on the EPS and the European model. The Euro may be a run cycle or two later in showing it but as of now keep in mind, the EPS does not really show a good WAR building in. That will probably have to change and it's something to look for. The GEPS does show the ridge building in but this season, the GEPS has had a tendency to lock in solutions which adjusted abruptly at closer range. So IMO the EPS is most important to watch for at this time. WX/PT
  7. Wxoutlooksblog
    GEFS no WAR no Cane. And that's how this works. If you do not have a classic WAR a hurricane in the southwest Atlantic is unlikely to become a major factor. WX/PT
  8. Wxoutlooksblog
    Actually, the GGEM depicts a far weaker tropical disturbance which is more suppressed and never gains latitude. We just sit uneventfully with a split ridge, a day or two of borderline warmth/heat. WX/PT
  9. Wxoutlooksblog
  10. Wxoutlooksblog
    Quite a fun run after the autumn-like treats of 00Z. The way to get a hurricane up the coast, put an upper low over the upper mid west, build WAR on top of the hurricane blocking it so it can't' escape, and have enough ridging under it to allow it to gain latitude. And here you go. Now prior to the madness, GFS does build WAR back in from the south and east giving us a day or two of 90+ heat. GGEM is a little diffferent but not much. We wait for King Euro to speak. WX/PT
  11. Wxoutlooksblog
    I doubt it at this point. I think the latest maps are more showing low-mid 80s with perhaps one day of mid 80s to near 90 (looks like the 21st). Then the pattern seems to revert to the June pattern of keeping the warmth and the heat to our west and we actually do get into more of a autumn-like pattern with a series of cold fronts. I'm not saying we will have seen the last days of the warmth/heat for the season, but we're close to it and maybe the se ridge or a piece of the western ridge pops in for a day sometime in October. WX/PT
  12. Wxoutlooksblog
    The models are really facing off as to whether or not the European/GEPS western Atlantic ridge together with the part of the western ridge will build in over the northeast next week. GFS, GGEM, GEFS, EPS now in the "no" camp and then you have the Euro and GEPS in the "yes" camp. The "no" camp seems to put us back into June 2022 pattern with enough blocking that WAR stays east and the western ridge stays west and we get some warmth of short duration and a number of cold front passages. I am leaning "yes" but confidence is not high. It just takes a lot this late in the season to get us into the duration of heat that the European model has been suggesting the passed 2 runs. WX/PT
  13. Wxoutlooksblog
    Yes I think there's an outside shot at another 90 degree day sometime in this general time-frame. Of course conditions wind direction etc would have to be almost perfect to get there but there's a chance up to September 27th. I am at the moment focused on Sept 21st and a day 3-5 days later for that 90 degree potential. Only using the word potential here to be perfectly clear that it's not likely but possible. WX/PT
  14. Wxoutlooksblog
    Tonight coastal sections should see a few showers increasing after midnight with an isolated thunderstorm or two. Heavy rainfall tonight over coastal areas looks to be in pockets so while anyone could jackpot with an inch of rain in an hour a mile or two away gets .25" or less. As of now tomorrow morning looks to be extremely bad/good depending on how you look at it with very heavy showers, possibly a thunderstorm over most of the area with many locations receiving over 2.00" rainfall. It continues to slowly diminishes tomorrow afternoon through Wednesday with pockets of an additional 1.00-2.00" or rain. WX/PT
  15. Wxoutlooksblog
    I'd tend to favor the CMC at this point. It is not a soaker unless you're in se Ct or until 222 hours. WX/PT
  16. Wxoutlooksblog
    WAR is really flexing some muscle here as it builds in front of Earl all across the se, middle Atlantic, and up to about us here in the NYC Metro. Precipitation likely to under perform through tomorrow night and temperatures likely to over perform. I'm not even so sure how well coastal areas will do on Tuesday at this point. Central Park got their 25th 90+ of the season probably looking at 1-4 more. WX/PT
  17. Wxoutlooksblog
    I'm seeing most folks are going for Central Park high temperature of 88 this afternoon. I'm thinking they're going to over-perform and end up at 89 or 90 (#25). Tomorrow may bring another shot at 90 in spite of the rapidly lowering humidity levels. The next two shots IMO would be Saturday and Sunday. A little more in the way of showers and thunderstorms later Sunday or Sunday night followed by slightly lower temperatures on Labor Day as it appears now. WX/PT
  18. Wxoutlooksblog
    Longterm brief thought--sort of off topic, but maybe the idea of wild swings back and forth for the late fall into winter with a few opportunities for slow moving major storms possible. That doesn't mean we get any of them but maybe we do. Looks like potential for very hot weather after the holiday weekend. WX/PT
  19. Wxoutlooksblog
    Backdoor cold front Sunday September 4th maybe? Could it cool us down for Labor Day? It's on the GFS and GGEM tonight and the ECMWF had hinted at it. Either way it's easy to see how there could be more heat beyond that point. WX/PT
  20. Wxoutlooksblog
    Yes more heat is on the way. I suspect the marine layer could roll back in later this afternoon or this evening after high temperatures top out in the low-mid 80s, cooler at the shore but there's really no end yet in sight to either the dry and hot conditions. As we've said, maybe a thunderstorm or two Tuesday afternoon or evening scattered about the region as the cold front passes but that will not bring much if any relief to the drought. 2 days of temperatures in the low-mid 80s followed by more upper 80s to lower 90s. Then we watch (is it) Danielle meander off the east coast possibly moving out to sea and more hot dry weather cover the region through at least September 12th. As I've said I think we're going to around September 20th with this kind of weather pattern the fire danger only getting worse until we get some significant rainfall here. WX/PT
  21. Wxoutlooksblog
    Central Park has touched 90 for the 24th time this season. Today getting there was not even expected. They should get to 90+ for a 25th time Tuesday though there is an outside chance for Monday (just as there was an outside chance for today). Now I'm expecting the Park to get there 26-30 times for the season before all is said and done. WX/PT
  22. Wxoutlooksblog
    I've called it as September 20th for a while now though maybe it can even go a week later, we'll see. WX/PT
  23. Wxoutlooksblog
    I'm doubtful that the Park will get to #24 90+ days today it's a little too active in terms of t-storm development. WX/PT
  24. Wxoutlooksblog
    Where did all these "cool folks" come from, looking at every model run and pulling the coolest solutions of them out and going by it. The fastest way to debunk the "cool" solutions is one look at the EPS. We (Central Park) still have at least 3-6 days of 90+ to go and probably 6-12 of 85+. Enjoy the heat! WX/PT
  25. Wxoutlooksblog
    22 times for Central Park as they made it to 90 late this afternoon. They're still on track to end up with 24-28 90+ days this season by the time its all said and done. I'm looking for them to hit it tomorrow, maybe Friday, probably not over the weekend, maybe Monday, almost certainly Tuesday and possibly Wednesday (next week) which will depend on the timing of the cold front. Another few 90+ days perhaps during September. WX/PT
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