Wxoutlooksblog

Interesting, all the cool fresh air masses and cold fronts are gradually washing out as they move se out of Canada. WX/PT

For most of the immediate NYC Metro Region those chances have been very low, most areas remaining dry. I suspect that that tendency will continue for a while. The models are overdoing moisture. WX/PT

I generally agree. The GFS and even the ensembles have been all over the place one run cooler one run hotter back and forth and continue to be. The Euro has been more consistent and accurate. I think this weekend will be increasingly muggy leading into some hot weather next week and that the first heatwave for NYC probably occurs next week. WX/PT

It depends on exactly how far westward it builds, and what exact position the ridge is in. It can push storms into the coast over the southeastern states or allow them to move up the coast or even force them (less likely) into the Gulf of Mexico. Or if the ridge is too strong, it can even hinder the development of tropical systems. Rules do not usually work in the world of weather because there are so many factors. La Nina ridge usually favors an active Atlantic tropical season but there are exceptions. WX/PT

I don't know about that. September maybe. But the blocking doesn't have to completely end in order for us to get a heatwave here. 2012 had a number of heatwaves with blocking. It is where exactly the weather systems are that set up the block and where we are within the jet stream flow at the time. There is more than one way to skin a cat and now the 18Z GEFS has the ridges together as one. The timing is getting better. We're still in the stage of 1-2 day surges of heat. What's next? We do not know. WX/PT

I have thought that the GFS is rushing it. I think we are still at this time prime for the 1-2 day surges maybe 3 in the 7/16-7/18 time-frame of the western ridge. I think WAR or a merger between WAR and the western ridge would more likely give us a prolonged heatwave particularly after 7/22. WX/PT

Another way of looking at it. We can continue to have extreme blocking but if the location of the blocking weather systems shifts to the east, we could end up in the western heat ridge for days and days with heatwaves. In other words, our location within the flow changes. So, there is really more than one way we can establish extended heat around here. WX/PT

I really prefer the ECMWF depiction of W.A.R. building westward over the GFS extending the western ridge northeastward. The GFS has been doing what it's going for a long time and it's been wrong time after time. Note the western ridge actually retrogrades a little bit too. It makes far more sense. There's still a little bit of blocking left here so I do not yet think we're into a heatwave at this point just another day or two. I think heatwave potential increases after the 20th or 21st. WX/PT

And here it goes, transition time: WX/PT

I don't know if this is going to happen, nobody does. But, it is easier and easier to visualize how it might happen. And you start out with a frontal system getting stuck on or just west of the eastern seaboard around July 16/17 time-frame. Western Atlantic Ridge retrograding and eventually you come around to this look and we're talking about weather that is the opposite of what the last two days were like. Could be a wet and stormy transition to more sustained heat and humidity. WX/PT

I think maybe I do actually. I do not know exact timing. But given the computer model output of the last few days it seems to me that the pattern is trying very hard to change. The blocking has to decrease to allow that to happen and something has to trigger the blocking to break down. And I can now see several ways that it might occur. The maps go back and forth and I think the GFS frankly is in a bit of a rush trying to change the pattern, it might be slower and later on. But the GEFS has been trending warmer with less blocking for the passed several runs and the EPS towards the end of its runs has begun trending that way as well. There is uncertainty and the blocking could return quickly. But if we're in a different spot in the flow and the blocking returns with our being under WAR, it's a whole new ballgame. And that's how we'd get a very long duration heatwave. WX/PT

Why do you say this? It's July 4th. We could get a ten day heatwave from July 24th to August 3rd and nobody would remember that we hadn't had a heatwave yet at this point. WX/PT

There's a chance but I wouldn't bet on it. WX/PT

Dew points seem to be dropping slowly from west to east. I think the t-storm threat is primarily north and east. If the cirrus were to thin out Central Park could still have an outside shot at 90 today. I think they also have an outside shot Tuesday ahead of the next cold front and t-storm threat. WX/PT

I think some locations from NYC south and west will hit 90 on the 7th or 8th. It will depend on the coverage of storms with the warm front then cold front. I think there are more *possible* 90 degree days than initially meets the eye. WX/PT

Just wait until we get that ridge over us in August. WX/PT

Almost all of the models are timing the front for Saturday mid-day. Tomorrow night kind of a pre-frontal trough will most likely ignite storms. The question being will there be enough sun to lift the temperatures to hot levels Saturday before the storms pop back up along the front as it passes to our south. WX/PT

It probably is not a question of "if" but a question of "when". Now the cracked up GFS which at this point has ZERO support (someday it will be right, maybe) is saying goodbye to the blocking around July 10th as it builds the ridge out west eastward over and around what was originally a cool Canadian HP on July 8th. If you cancel the blocking this is actually a logical outcome and transition. The question being is it real? The answer at this point in time is "probably not". We'll keep an eye on the ensembles for any developing support of this idea but frankly I doubt we'll see it this early. Later on? There's a better chance IMO. WX/PT

The big quesstion now has to be will the dome of heat which has dominated the center of the CONUS stay there most of the remainder of the summer or will it finally shift to cover the northeastern states including NYC during the second half of July and August? It has remained nearly frozen in the same place for the better part of the last 6 weeks with a little piece of it breaking off into our region for a day or two every ten or so days. If it is to shift to cover the northeast states later in the summer exactly what will be the mechanism to cause that shift and how will it occur? Will the ridge retrograde further and further allowing WAR to work its way in from the south and east or will blocking over the North Atlantic subside allowing the ridge to expand and build in from the west? Or will we remain in this relatively average temperature pattern (below average over parts of New England) with heat every ten days or so throughout summer? WX/PT

Don't be so sure. For now yes there's no heat in sight. But remember, 1955 started out very very slowly in terms of heat and featured a blocking pattern like we've had this June. And they ended up with 14 90+ days in July and 10 90+ days in August. Frankly, if the pattern does flip, you can reverse that for this summer (if the pattern flips) and make it 10 in July and 14 in August, then add a few in September. It *could* happen, not saying that it will. WX/PT

Again, heat doesn't have a chance to build as cold front approaches. WX/PT

A kind of shriveled up shrunken ridge and low pressure off the Carolinas does not bode well for heat. Just days ago the heat ridge on the models stretched from coast to coast and up at least to the US/Canadian border. Now it's a mini ridge over the nations' mid section. WX/PT

Heat is generally considered to be 90+ temps. There are lots of problems with getting that right now particularly in NYC. The heat ridge is out west and there's an absence of WAR. There will also be a stationary front or trough setting up somewhere near the eastern seaboard acting as a conduit for waves of low pressure and/or possibly some tropical cyclone development down the road. All in all it's a pretty bleak picture for heat at this point in time. Yes there could be some briefly warm/muggy conditions over the next week or so but it won't last. WX/PT

Cool/wet pattern continues with no signs of heat in the northeast on any of the overnight operational model runs. WX/PT

GFS has July 4h weekend hazy hot and humid but from what we've seen the last two weeks that means about as much as the tooth fairy. WX/PT