Wxoutlooksblog

On the UKMET there's a south-southeasterly wind which really looks like a warm wind out ahead of deep southern storm center and around the high pressure out in the Atlantic. I would think most of us will have temperatures in the upper 30s to lower 40s at the very least, possibly warmer than that. WX/PT

Nobody, I hope, is looking for a big winter this year. But a La Nina and an El Nino can yield a similar synoptic pattern. My words not referencing sea surface temperature anomalies but the actual jet stream and real weather outcomes. WX/PT

Pattern on the maps for late January and beyond now starting to take on a very 1966-ish feel. Anyone else here personally remember winter 1966? 65-66? WX/PT

The 26th is now the day to watch IMO. CMC shows rain changing over to snow as the low exits while the ECMWF shows a bomb in the benchmark. My concern is the lack of a good 50/50 low but HP around the storm (antecedent and incoming) is cold enough. The question being will the next runs trend towards a coastal hugger or track the low over interior southeast NY State. WX/PT

We'll see how the EPS trends and then tonight's guidance but there are so many particulars which have to fall into place for Sun-Tues to work out for us here and right now it just seems as though the odds are they won't all do so. We need a cold enough air mass to start, we need to see it lock in with a 50/50, we need the low track close enough but not too close, it just doesn't seem likely we're going to get all of that. WX/PT

Maybe some snow according to this for interior se NY, nw Ct, and interior eastern Ma but most likely all rain for NYC. WX/PT

50/50 lows are transient (phantom) without some higher latitude blocking which we do not and probably will not have in the near future. The time-frame that always had the best possibility of being the exception was Jan 22nd give or take a day or two, currently modeled for Jan 23rd and on the current maps there is a lack of cold air. WX/PT

This map is in the fantasy range but one major problem has been and will probably continue to be that there's no high latitude blocking which means there'a also no 50/50 or confluence to lock in a cold air mass. WX/PT

Maybe. But how windy the system actually is will not have much effect on its eventual track. What's going on on the West Coast and over the Great Lakes and Ontario/Quebec, and Atlantic will. WX/PT

And to finish our possibly favorable period we might (if the Euro is correct) have two more shots at some wintry precipitation. WX/PT

So it's right on the NJ shoreline as compared with last night's. WX/PT

Unfortunately this ends up as a phase-up and NOT where the Euro had it last night but right off the central NJ coast--coast hugger. A cold rain, probably 34 and rain. Last night's run colder and snowier with no phase and the southern system ending up further s and e. WX/PT

In order to get snow you have to have some cold air. And tonight's European model run has some at the end. Maybe this will be the start of something new. WX/PT

50s? I'm not so sure. The maps are volatile noting the Euro just tried to pop a coastal at 120 hours. Not that it has very large implications but heavier rain and more easterly winds would tend to hold down temps. Let's see what happens there's still some uncertainty. WX/PT

We are going through the usual cycles of model swings the only problem being for snowlovers along I-95 the big cities and coastal locations that the swings are too far west. The most easterly swing (about 4 days ago) was by two out of the three models a coast hugger and the most westerly swing took the primary to just about Green Bay Wisconsin (GGEM several runs ago). So it does not really appear that there's much of a chance at this point for an all-out snowstorm here but we can keep just a slight bit of hope for some snow or sleet on the front or back end particularly away from the coast. Central and northern New England along with parts of Pennsylvania and central/western NY State have a better shot at snow. But tonight the models have come east again. I do not know how far but it is my guess that they're not going to shift east beyond the easternmost track of several days back and that they may eventually shift to the left a bit once again. For most of us in my opinion this is mostly a rain event. WX/PT

Some of the set-ups the GFS is coming up with are incredibly dynamic and a little too perfect to believe at this juncture from such an inconsistent model. The lack of a solid 50/50 low for the 22nd-23rd is noted. But I love the antecedent and incoming high pressure locations nearly perfect. The zipper low on the 22nd kind of functions as the 50/50 but it's highly uncertain whether or not that would work out. The second storm is a classic Miller A but starts so far south. Usually those storms do not make it all the way up the coast. So there are lots of variables to keep an eye on with a sense that sooner or later something big could happen. WX/PT

The Euro is definitely pumping up potential for this Thursday. It's just going to be difficult to sustain enough cold air here without cold HP locked in to our north and a good 50/50 low. Then again the actual storm track it is depicting would seem to be a rain to snow track with possibly accumulating snows region-wide. Still, I'd need to see more runs showing this to have much confidence in it. WX/PT

Emerging is a blocky pattern which can yield big and long duration events depending on how the overall weather pattern sets up but with the mostly strongly -PNA odds favor storms tracking initially well to the north and west of the forecast area then they run into the block and tend to re-develop south and east on the east coast near the east coast, etc. But it is the precise location of where these storms re-develop which will determine precip type. Factors stacked against us include higher than normal heights over the southeast tending to force re-development further north and the -PNA. It could take most of the winter season before we get a system in this pattern to re-develop in the sweet spot but not always. In the meantime a very rainy dreary and mild week ahead. WX/PT

The models are still going back and forth with the storm track for late next week and pending 50/50 low. CMC while showing rain for most areas aside from northern NY State and Ontario-Quebec has shifted its storm track well to the south and east from last night. But the ECMWF has become a bit more La Nina-ish with a less amplified ridge out west. I think in the end initially southern storms might tend to cut while Alberta Clippers may or may not but behind each one a reinforcing shot of icy cold air. We just have to wait and see how this pattern develops. Snow showers and flurries later this afternoon and evening could set the mood. WX/PT

00Z GFS has the 50/50 back maybe it will keep the clipper to our south. WX/PT

This does not look very La Nina-ish. Brrrr. We'll see. WX/PT

The analog idea does not mean that in the season being forecast/discussed the analog year's snowfall is identical. It's more that the overall pattern would be similar. And you know how many situations pop up in any season when a difference of 30-100 miles can be the the difference between no snow and a foot of snow. But yes, 01-02 and 75-76 were not good. WX/PT

Once the pattern does flip to a colder one we probably will see many many clippers this season. I do think we'll be switching winter on and off abruptly and regularly with some very cold weeks but mostly near to above normal temperatures at other times. Odds are the cold episodes will be mainly dry but I cannot rule out a couple of cold fronts stalling out nearby and some snow as waves of low pressure move along them to our south. This sort of thing probably more the exception than the rule. I like analogs 1975-76, 2001-02, maybe 1964-65 or 1965-66. less-so 1988-89. WX/PT

Some locations in the NYC Metro Region are getting some really soaking rains from the remnants/leftovers of Ian. But if my take is correct, we are still in a drier than normal overall weather pattern while above normal temperature pattern has shifted into a below normal temperature pattern. I don't think this current event necessarily means that the drought is over. Even if a few spots ended up with 3.00" of rain from this, if the next 8 weeks are very dry, we're very close to being back in the drought. We are lucky that we ended up in the right spot with Ian and the same luck is unlikely to happen again though not impossible. Most of the computer guidance having systems accelerating w-nw to e-se across the northern tier of the country with cold fronts one after another dropping down from Canada does not give me confidence in more sizable rain events after this one. We'll see if the tropics have more to say. WX/PT

I think it's probably real to some extent. To what extent exactly? I'm not sure yet. WX/PT