Wxoutlooksblog

Most Augusts even many of them during hot summers there is a lull in the heat around mid August before one or two last surges of heat later in August or even in September, therefore this is not surprising. I would think we would have a cooler stretch from about August 10th or 11th until August 17th or 18th during which time WAR would probably be absent from the picture. WX/PT

Beautiful day out there though some locations may hit 90. The possible heatwave would start Tuesday or Wednesday. It will be interesting to see which school of thought prevails in reality with regards to the evolution into, duration, and extent of the heat. The European model is certainly the hottest case scenario at the moment. I question the NWS forecast of upper 80s on Monday with the warm front approaching the area. More than likely there will be clouds at the very least with the possibility of a few showers and I would doubt temperatures get much above 80 if they even get that high. WX/PT

ECMWF now also a little too far south with the placement of WAR to allow for a record breaking or prolonged heatwave for our area at least through August 6th. A weak b-door front coming through late on Aug 5th or the night of the 5th. It does not preclude a record-breaking or prolonged heatwave from happening a little later during the month of August and the ensembles continue to show a favorable pattern of it. WX/PT

GFS breaks down the WAR too fast so it moves a cold front right into it on Aug 9th and then displaces it to the south and east. If it's scenario were true the heat would probably build back in no later than Aug 14th anyway. Either way or even with the CMC maps we got some heat whether it's a prolonged heatwave or record-breaking heat we do not know yet but the ensembles consistently point to some very hot conditions. WX/PT

Here we go again with the GFS being schooled by the other models. Now the inconsistent but improved CMC the relatively cool model again, still hot. WX/PT

Following these models and the pending heat later next week is interesting tonight. Last night the CMC was much cooler and had backed off of the heat in the east. Tonight it is the GFS which is abbreviating any bit of heat with kind of a backdoor cold front. The extreme heat back into Minnesota on the GFS. But the CMC has almost come around to the last night's GFS. I think the deal is this. The question, the exact strength and position of the Western Atlantic Ridge and GFS I believe is having difficulty picking up on exactly that. It's placing W.A.R too far south and too weak thereby allowing high pressure to slowly work its way southward along the coast while the CMC has a robust W.A.R less suppressed and it is able to dominate any feather which tries to come south. As a result on the GFS tonight there's no genuine heatwave and no extreme heat. I think it's wrong but we'll see. WX/PT

The operational models will go back and forth on the heat (or in the winter on the snowstorm) until 2-4 days from the event then kind of draw a line in the sand. The GFS sometimes draws and line in the sand at that point and is still wrong. The compelling factor here are the ensembles which have been and continue to be quite hot. That tilts the scale towards favoring more heat or even extreme heat. WX/PT

The Euro about a day slower bringing in the heat. WX/PT

Burn baby burn. Cold fronts drop down, weak high pressure systems behind them get swallowed up by and absorbed into the W.A.R. This should give us 3 H's, near or over 100 degree heat for a day or two, and perhaps another prolonged heatwave. WX/PT

Tonight it's WAR doing it. GFS seems determined to attain the 3 H's and that 100 degree heat at Central Park. WX/PT

Yes I posted a map like that late last night then this morning's run dropped it and 18Z brought it back. But it is very much in the time-frame during which the GFS is extremely poor and not to be relied upon. I posted to the map just to show what 100 degrees and the 3 H's would look like but we're nowhere near there yet. If the maps keep showing that and if other models jump on board, we will definitely have reason to talk it up some more and I do think it's possible that that may happen at some point in the next 8 weeks. Even though this current heatwave has ended in NYC we're still very much in an above normal temperature pattern. WX/PT

I'd give it at this point a 50% chance for Central Park. The point is that the front isn't getting here until overnight and we do not know exactly where the heaviest rain will fall as this first batch of showers/storms moves through. There could be a break and skies could partially clear out for an hour or two this afternoon in between showers/storms and it could get to 90. WX/PT

This is in the fantasy range on the GFS but if this ever happened, we'd have the 3 H's and very likely 100+ degrees in Central Park. WX/PT

I think everyone reacts differently to the heat and humidity. For some a tropical type climate is comfortable and others prefer the desert. WX/PT

Did Central Park drop off the map again? WX/PT

I think you'll be seeing the 3 H's in about 3 weeks. WX/PT

Park hit 92 and are now down to 77. WX/PT

Weak front passing through in combination with the sea breeze front doing a number over Long Island probably for the balance of the afternoon. WX/PT

Certainly. The latest maps have the appearance of one of the hottest summers of all time in this area. I'm not sure we can verify all the guidance, but if we do, we have a shot at the top 5 hottest summers. WX/PT

I'm totally on board for a hot week ahead. I'm also on board for numerous showers/storms today and tonight and most notably the likelihood of a line of storms busting through during the early morning hours Monday and a severe threat during the late afternoon and evening hours Monday with another storm possible Monday night. What I am questioning is the daytime heating hours on Monday. Several of models keep most of the action to our north and west over that time. It that is true temperatures could over-perform on Monday. While the old NAM has winds too southerly to allow that to mean much, the 3K has more westerly wind component along with the RGEM. In other words, upper 80s to perhaps 90 might not be out of the question for Monday prior to the severe threat later in the day and evening. The hottest days of the week as of now look to me to be Wednesday & Thursday. Central Park should pick up 4-5 more 90+ days this week bringing the monthly total to 8 or 9. WX/PT

Again, I think the models continue to overdo rainfall. Otherwise, I had started out with a prediction of 7 90+ days this month at Central Park and am now thinking we just might have a shot at their getting 8-10. WX/PT

IMO the rain is overdone on every model. We've seen them do this time over time recently. WX/PT

I agree with this. NYC's Central Park probably will not reach 90 this afternoon but IMO there is a 30-40% chance they do reach it. WX/PT

Unlikely but possible. I'd rank it a 30% chance. WX/PT

This front and its associated showers/storms never likely to ever get here. WX/PT