Wxoutlooksblog
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There are some patterns in which the NAM performs better and some when it's performance is horrible. It's been pretty bad lately more towards the bottom of it's performance levels. WX/PT
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If what the NAM shows tonight were the final track most of the NYC Metro Region would see little if any snow. Maybe a period of rain/sleet/snow mix at the start and then just heavy rain. The low hasn't even begun to bomb out as the European has repeatedly indicated it would and it's tucked into the NJ coastline. Not good. But the NAM's accuracy range is about 6 hours and we are a long ways off from that. WX/PT
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I would much rather see the Euro where it is at this point than closer in. Anything too close probably ends up tracking right over us or to our west and all rain. The current track and energy transfer is perfect to me at this range for evolving into a mid March frozen precip event. WX/PT
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Still a couple of significant wintry weather threats IMO including next weekend. I think consistently spring type temperatures 50s/60s are still at least two-three weeks away. We'll get a day or two here and there in between bouts of cold in the meantime. WX/PT
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I don't know why you'd say that so certainly. There's plenty of cold air still and as we know, the maps more than seven days out are rarely correct. While the later it gets the chances of significant wintry weather decrease there have been major winter storms into April and as long as there's cold air around, there'a a chance. WX/PT
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Some of what appear to be snow bands just about now moving into upper Manhattan appear to be increasing in areal coverage and intensity. The next 2-3 hours could feature 1-2"/hour snowfall rates at times leaving some locations with up to 6" or possibly even a bit more. I'm thinking North Shore LI, Coastal Ct. WX/PT
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Here in eastern Queens on the north shore I'm not expecting much more than an inch or two if that. WX/PT
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I think some folks on LI who may be expecting 3-5" may get disappointed. It's just not cold enough and there's not enough vertical velocity with most of it being offshore or to our north and west. The s-se wind doesn't help either. This air can only cool so much and in order to pile up you need maximum intensity which I don't think is going to last long enough or steadily enough. WX/PT
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I think wet snow as this second low center moves away is a stretch but not impossible. I'm very skeptical. Anyway, beyond this it's just warmer and warmer and warmer. We'll probably hit 70 sometime this month. WX/PT ,
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I don't hold the blowtorch of this week against the event next Saturday. We've had a number of snowstorms which followed warm-ups even to 60 or 70 degrees (in late Feb or March). The problem is the likelihood of a relatively poorly organized storm system and lack of really cold air available at the time of the event. WX/PT
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I think it would be quite difficult for coastal areas to get accumulating snow out of this no less any snow at all. Temperatures probably in the upper 30s at best. WX/PT
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My condolences on your mom's unexpected passing. WX/PT
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I don't even consider the first one cold. The discussion previous was primarily about later in the week/weekend. I guess if I'm not pinpoint specific you're going to assume I'm making an incorrect comment. 2-3 posts above mine nobody but you are even mentioning the airmass for Tues-Thurs and by my words it is clear what I'm talking about. WX/PT
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There's a reasonable chance it ends up colder than forecast just because of the cold air's origins and it's track into the lower 48. It's not dumping south then coming east it's coming down across the upper Great Lakes and Ontario and the winds will blow right down the Hudson Valley which often brings us our coldest temperatures here in NYC. WX/PT
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Nam has been awful. I think the verdict is still out but it continues to be very difficult to get accumulating snow at Central Park. And anything frozen that falls would be over quickly not lasting more than 45 minutes if that. Models could look still different by tomorrow. WX/PT
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At 216 hours not necessarily. As shown now, yes. But let's see what future runs show. WX/PT
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I'm beginning to re-consider my earlier assessment of Central Park not getting their first measurable snow on Wednesday. The models do look a bit colder this evening and I think they have a good shot at it. WX/PT
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I think there may be a clipper around the 28th and one more storm to end the month probably at least mostly rain. WX/PT
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I don't think NYC's Central Park, will see measurable on Wednesday. I suspect it will be 45 minutes to an hour of sleet with a few big wet flakes mixed in then all rain. Same for locations on Long Island. The HP to the north is moving out quickly. WX/PT
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I would not take the NAM verbatim but I think it is a little colder/drier and has the NYC Metro region closer to a mix/rain line both at the beginning of the precip and late Sunday night. We'll have to wait and see if this is anything other than just a cold rain but I'm still skeptical about any significant or measurable snow out of this. WX/PT
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Generally I'd agree but sometimes you get a few last minute changes in the upper levels. Let me be clear, I do not think this is going to happen. WX/PT
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Another thought if the high pressure to the north were to get locked in and a coastal did not develop or developed late we could end up with an ice storm. WX/PT
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If there was a chance with any of this series of storm systems (yesterday, 22-23, 25-26) I would have said 25-26 would be our best chance because of the high pressure to the north. But look how quickly it disappears. Now if it holds in place much longer, different story. But we would also have to get a coastal to develop quickly to lock the cold air in at lower levels and it would have to develop in exactly the right spot offshore. It's a tall order at this point IMO. WX/PT
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I have difficulty seeing any measurable snowfall in Central Park Wednesday at this point. Winds will likely be blowing out of the e-se with surface temperatures around 37/38 to start the event. We may see a mix of rain sleet and snow for 30-45 minutes, I doubt it amounts to anything. WX/PT
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I think our best chance is still the 25th-26th. There's more cold air around and a slight shift in track to the south and east would put the low pressure out over the ocean close enough to yield some significant snow to much of the NYC Metro Region. Still the odds are against it happening as the models all at this point depict a rainstorm here with the track of the low over us or to our north and west. But as I said yesterday I think this is the one to watch. WX/PT
