Wxoutlooksblog

I think at least the first two thirds of May will likely be a little cooler than normal but cooler than April? Maybe. But I really do think alot will depend on whether or not and how much temperatures rebound in the last ten days of the month. It's possible they could just rebound to near normal and not above normal. It's also possible that a wet pattern could reload after a drier period in the middle of the month. We'll just have to wait and see. But as of now, the operational Euro continues to have us in a northwesterly flow aloft on May 7th. That does not bode well for warm or even near normal temperatures. WX/PT

I don't see any sign of it. Could the cooler than normal break for one or two days? Sure. But I think it would be for a one day shot of near normal". I see no sign whatsoever of a ridge in the east which is necessary for prolonged above average temperatures. For that I think at the earliest late in the third week of May--17th-24th....at the earliest. At the latest second week of June. WX/PT

I anticipate at this point that any return to above normal temperatures for the NYC Metro region would probably occur late during the 3rd week or 4th week of May. We might get into near normal temperatures a few days to a week before then. WX/PT

Rolling thunder here with rain as the line moves in. WX/PT

An onshore flow will keep temperatures cooler than previously expected today, tomorrow, and Saturday with 70s to near 80 only over some spots well inland well north west and northeast of NYC as our temperatures stay mainly in the 50s and 60s. WX/PT

I suspect April finishes out on the cool/wet side and the first ten days of May are near to below normal with regards to temperatures. Precipitation for the first ten days of May very uncertain at this point. WX/PT

Initially most of the shower and t-storm activity will be focused over Pa and western NJ but I think it will drift eastward this evening and if it doesn't wash out before it gets here most of the NYC Metro Region will get some rainfall very late this afternoon or more likely early tonight. I think tomorrow is mainly dry aside from some low clouds and patchy fog. WX/PT

Well, the Park made it to 90 for the second consecutive day. There could be an outside shot at 90 around the 23rd but I really think the next one is during May. WX/PT

Close call for 90 at the Park in the next hour or so then high cloudiness begins to stream up from the south as the winds gradually kick around to more southerly. I think it would be the last 90 at the Park for at least 2-3 weeks if they even get there. WX/PT

I think for somebody 90 is within reach. WX/PT

Actually there was. Almost every GFS operational run then CMC and Euro showed it clearly. In April when you get 564dm thicknesses here on light northwesterly winds or light variable winds and no moisture around you're going to be above normal. WX/PT

EPS is right about normal. I'm really not at this point seeing ensemble maps that would support above normal temperatures for the last 8 or 9 days of April. WX/PT

I think that this month may not end up in the top ten warmest Aprils. It looks to me like the NYC Metro Region has two very above normal days then a little less above normal for a day or two then probably near to perhaps slightly below normal normal for the rest of the month and kind of wet. My thinking is that we might have to wait several weeks before we get into more above normal temperatures again, sometime around mid May. But Thursday & Friday this week could be mid-upper 80s with a chance that somebody hits 90. WX/PT

NAM now gets NYC to 80 tomorrow. Maybe they'll get there. Extremely warm pattern ahead with a reasonable chance that Central Park gets to 90 degrees at some point this month. WX/PT

West of NYC. WX/PT

Not impossible. Will depend on cloudcover and how southerly vs. westerly the winds. WX/PT

Again don't agree. If we are getting heavy snow or moderate snow, it's the day after tomorrow. There is lots of time or corrections either way. Anyone remember Boxing Day? WX/PT

In other words, the snow would begin in about 36 hours but you are tossing all the global model runs other than the ones from the last 7 hours? I don't agree with that. The weather forecast models over history have notoriously shifted back and forth prior to storm events whether they verified or not. I think it's early and very exaggerated with such a close call to at this point say the NYC proper is "pretty much out of it". WX/PT

That's one run on a weekend. WX/PT

Yeah, I wouldn't bet on NAM but would I bet on any of the others? Not really. There's still lots of uncertainty. These models are not as good as they should be. If I were at this point with the NGM and ETA I'd feel better. WX/PT

If NAM were right (rare prior to 6 hours in advance) we would have normal or above normal snowfall for winter 2022-2023..lol. WX/PT

Though the insane high amounts now shown on the models are possible, forecasting this storm I would wait one more model run before going crazy. Tomorrow is going to be all rain. There's 12 more hours to alert the public and 36 more hours of shopping time. And half of this 24" of snow for LGA falls on a northwest wind. Very unusual but with those vertical velocities it's possible but extremely rare. So for now, I'm going for 6-12" for the NYC Metro with more north and west and higher elevations. Winter Storm Watches should be up for the entire area no later than tonight. WX/PT

Great analysis!

When it's this close it's over until it's over. The ECMWF which last run had the low near Boston now has it over Cape Cod which is an improvement. It also intensifies further south, also an improvement over last run. And on Wednesday it moves away extremely slowly and there would probably be, if these maps are correct, precipitation rotating around the storm's center back into parts of the NYC Metro from the north and east until around mid-day. WX/PT

I would not entirely agree that there's no cold air supply. The cold is not extreme and it is marginal but to say there's no cold air supply is wrong. There is a HP system wrapped around the Norlun signature trough and that HP is marginally cold enough. In addition, if the low is as tucked as NAM shows you'll see a period of east southeasterly winds off of the relatively warm ocean causing temperatures to rise into the 40s. If you get that and then dynamic cooling you're not going to cool enough in the NYC Metro to see accumulating snow until it's too late, maybe not even then. WX/PT