Wxoutlooksblog

I'm seeing most folks are going for Central Park high temperature of 88 this afternoon. I'm thinking they're going to over-perform and end up at 89 or 90 (#25). Tomorrow may bring another shot at 90 in spite of the rapidly lowering humidity levels. The next two shots IMO would be Saturday and Sunday. A little more in the way of showers and thunderstorms later Sunday or Sunday night followed by slightly lower temperatures on Labor Day as it appears now. WX/PT

Longterm brief thought--sort of off topic, but maybe the idea of wild swings back and forth for the late fall into winter with a few opportunities for slow moving major storms possible. That doesn't mean we get any of them but maybe we do. Looks like potential for very hot weather after the holiday weekend. WX/PT

Backdoor cold front Sunday September 4th maybe? Could it cool us down for Labor Day? It's on the GFS and GGEM tonight and the ECMWF had hinted at it. Either way it's easy to see how there could be more heat beyond that point. WX/PT

Yes more heat is on the way. I suspect the marine layer could roll back in later this afternoon or this evening after high temperatures top out in the low-mid 80s, cooler at the shore but there's really no end yet in sight to either the dry and hot conditions. As we've said, maybe a thunderstorm or two Tuesday afternoon or evening scattered about the region as the cold front passes but that will not bring much if any relief to the drought. 2 days of temperatures in the low-mid 80s followed by more upper 80s to lower 90s. Then we watch (is it) Danielle meander off the east coast possibly moving out to sea and more hot dry weather cover the region through at least September 12th. As I've said I think we're going to around September 20th with this kind of weather pattern the fire danger only getting worse until we get some significant rainfall here. WX/PT

Central Park has touched 90 for the 24th time this season. Today getting there was not even expected. They should get to 90+ for a 25th time Tuesday though there is an outside chance for Monday (just as there was an outside chance for today). Now I'm expecting the Park to get there 26-30 times for the season before all is said and done. WX/PT

I've called it as September 20th for a while now though maybe it can even go a week later, we'll see. WX/PT

I'm doubtful that the Park will get to #24 90+ days today it's a little too active in terms of t-storm development. WX/PT

Where did all these "cool folks" come from, looking at every model run and pulling the coolest solutions of them out and going by it. The fastest way to debunk the "cool" solutions is one look at the EPS. We (Central Park) still have at least 3-6 days of 90+ to go and probably 6-12 of 85+. Enjoy the heat! WX/PT

22 times for Central Park as they made it to 90 late this afternoon. They're still on track to end up with 24-28 90+ days this season by the time its all said and done. I'm looking for them to hit it tomorrow, maybe Friday, probably not over the weekend, maybe Monday, almost certainly Tuesday and possibly Wednesday (next week) which will depend on the timing of the cold front. Another few 90+ days perhaps during September. WX/PT

W.A.R. is protecting coastal sections from getting the significant rain amounts they need. WX/PT

Some scattered storms around the area now as is expected with the slight uptick in humidity levels. But Central Park is on the edge of notching their 21st 90 degree day of the season. I'm finding it easy to see the Park getting to 25 maybe more than that by sometime in September. After today the next possible 90 in the Park being Thursday the 25th with an even better chance Friday the 26th. WX/PT

I have the feeling that for the NYC Metro Region 90 degree heat could occur off and on through September 20th followed by 85 degree warmth off and on through October 15th. It looks like a warmer than normal autumn ahead for our area with drought conditions contingent upon any tropical moisture that can wander up this way. WX/PT

Posts on the demise of the 2022 Atlantic Basin Hurricane season could be premature if tonight's' GFS is any indication. There are four hurricanes on this map. Of course the model lacks much accuracy but once in a while it gets something right. WX/PT

Why wouildn't I? I think we'll notch at least 2 more this month and about 3-5 in September. We might even get to 26. But it may be more unusual heat with low humidity and not classic heatwave heat. WX/PT

19? I got my count from UOFIAMI99 and we added it up to 17. If it's 19, 24 90+ days for the season should be no problem. I was just away on Cape Cod for about 11 days. I think we'll flirt with 90 probably upper 80s this weekend, but I think we'll get heat from the 27th or 28th on and into September. WX/PT

I am counting 17 90+ days so far for Central Park this season and I think they're going end up with at least 21. None this week as near to below normal temperatures continue. It looks as though the surface winds will be more light variable or southerly at first as heat and humidity try to rebuild late next weekend into the following week so 90+ is unlikely at first. But later in the month the ensembles have come around to a warmer look over the last few run cycles so I do think eventually the Park will see 4-7 more days of 90+ weather perhaps including another heatwave. WX/PT

More hot weather maybe late this month into next month? GEFS supports it. GEPS and EPS do not at the moment but did a day ago. They are flipping back and forth. We'll see. WX/PT

As of now I think we'll be chilly and wet on Wed but that heavy rainfall amounts most likely will be confined to eastern LI and New England. This could change. WX/PT

I do not think Central Park will get to 90 today, tomorrow, and maybe not even on Thursday. Thursday a 50% chance. The winds are now forecast to be more southerly right off of the relatively cool (but not so cool--mid/upper 70s) Atlantic Ocean. The models are generally in agreement on this. If the Park is to hit 90 they probably have to do so by 1 or 2PM the latest. Afternoon onshore winds, storms forming along seabreeze fronts perhaps. But now with the Euro more and more washing out the front on Friday night, I don't even think we're going to get much precipitation then. I think it's mostly scattered to isolated in nature and while there could be locally heavy amounts it would be very confined to locations where storms do occur. Friday through Monday the Park should hit 90 but not without a struggle. Then cooler air arrives next week Tues or Wed. WX/PT

Tonight of everything I've seen the CMC makes the most sense. The Friday front never really gets here. The storms out ahead of it do but by the time the front would move through it's pretty much washing out. Saturday and Sunday are extremely hot then maybe a cold front Sunday night and back into the heat next Wednesday for one day. I would not be surprised if Central Park didn't quite make it to 90 today or Wednesday. I think for the Park the 90 degree readings start on Thursday, we'll see. WX/PT

If the frontal boundary were to remain to our north and west and stall out before ever reaching us it would still be possible for us to have that. It just does not seem likely at this point in time. Then again, the modeling isn't very good though the best of them, the Euro, has been the hottest. WX/PT

In order for the hottest temperatures to occur we really need a downsloping westerly or even west northwesterly wind. In order to get that, we need a strong westward extension of the Bermuda HP and not too far south. While we could see that if the models have over-estimated the southeastward movement of the alleged cold front Thursday night through Saturday, I'm not really just yet sold on it. The proximity of the front bodes well for thunderstorm development more than it does for record-breaking heat here at the coast. And if the Bermuda HP flow is southwesterly some cooling breezes here are also a reasonable possibility with storms possibly forming on seabreeze fronts each day. We'll just have to wait and see day by day how this unfolds. NAM this morning came out with lower temperatures for tomorrow and Wednesday than on previous runs for whatever that's worth. But as we know, NAM is not terribly reliable. WX/PT

My thinking is that if winds are from too southerly a component coastal sections and NYC are not going to be as hot as expected tomorrow and Wednesday. This possibility needs to be watched. WX/PT

Don't be surprised if you feel differently in about 6 more weeks. July yes hasn't been too bad the low humidity being a highlight. But once the Western Atlantic Ridge takes hold I think you'll feel the humidity and heat this week and though afterwards there'll likely be a break, it seems likely that there'll be more heat later in the month with this pattern continuing. WX/PT