Wxoutlooksblog
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Not in my memory. I think it can work both ways. A few examples of extremely hot summers followed by great winters correct me if I'm wrong---1966, 1993, 1995, 2002, 2010....just to name a few. But of course hot summer of 1983 was followed by a not so great winter of 83-84. So I think it works both ways and that it's not a great correlation. Another hot summer 1991 was followed by a not very good winter 91-92. WX/PT
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I'm again not believing the hype for heat at the end of this month. We keep seeing interludes where it looks real on the models only to rapidly disappear into onshore southeasterly or easterly winds marine layers galore yes higher humidity but probably also periods of rain. The heights come up some but with the developing El Nino jet stream energy and storms passing over us or even to our south, jet stream about 750 miles further south than normal, I say a cooler wetter than average summer is on the way. Now that doesn't mean there won't be the isolated days of heat in between the rain and fog makers. Maybe even a rare two days in the row at times. But I see this summer ending up with a grand total of 5-15 90+ days at Central Park. WX/PT
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Though .35-.55" rainfall tonight was not a very big deal most of the models suggest above normal rainfall for the next ten days. We should see more rain on Wednesday. WX/PT
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Anything is big after 2022-23. I'm guessing (first guess) we'll get 10-20" of snow next winter. WX/PT
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Heights building but no heatwave with an easterly wind. WX/PT
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What we're looking at here is temperatures gradually warming up over time but a pattern closer to winter 1960-61 than any pattern we've ever seen during a summer. Maybe a Donna look-alike will come up the coast. WX/PT
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Also back to my cooler summer outlook. When a piece of the heat ridge breaks off unfortunately this is where the high pressure will often end up. This is a cool outcome with surface winds off of the relatively cool ocean waters. WX/PT
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Thank you Brian. The best of the ridge remains west of us with only a piece breaking off and moving eastward once in a while. I would be surprised if July averages out much if at all above normal in NYC. WX/PT
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When the models indicated a change to much warmer/much colder, building ridge, deepening trough and kept postponing it usually never happened. This needs to be watched. It is not impossible that we are in the beginnings of cool summer from beginning to end with only a few isolated hot days and NO prolonged heat or even warmth. We've had these before--1996,1997, 2004, etc. WX/PT
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I'm a little skeptical that the cool weather pattern is going to change before the last two days of June or even early or mid July. WX/PT
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I think this is only the beginning of a busy day we'll see. Eyes to the radar not the models for these. With cold air aloft and energized jet these could pop at a moments notice as we get just a little daytime heating. WX/PT
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Just had a one boom and it's over kinda thunderstorm with very little rain. WX/PT
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With the exception of the brief 2 days warmth June 1st-2nd the cool late spring into early summer continues. Though we could see another brief shot at warmth or a day of heat sometime between the 12th and 20th any prolonged heat should wait until after June 22nd. I'm forecasting temperatures this summer here to average near to below normal temperatures but with several very hot periods. I believe it's a summer of extremes, when it's hot it could be very hot and when it's cool it could be very cool. And I believe this summer will have its share of cool wet weather as well with precipitation overall near normal. WX/PT
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We could add one next week but I think the odds are against it with light winds and probably onshore afternoon breezes. It looks to me more like mid to perhaps upper 80s for the city and coastal areas before the onshore breezes kick in. WX/PT
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I'm now looking for temperatures this July and August in the NYC Metro Region to average near to slightly below normal. We've had 2 90 degree days at the Park so far, I'm looking for 3-13 more. WX/PT
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But today's guidance was considerably warmer for later next week--mid-upper 80s outside chance of a 90 day. We'll see. I'm still not gung-ho for heat yet. WX/PT
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I'm starting to consider the real possibility that the NYC Metro Region could experience a summer of near to even somewhat below normal temperatures. There's no Bermuda HP to speak of and really no signs of one. And the developing El Nino is likely to keep the south energized with upper lows and moisture with hybrid low pressure systems over the western Atlantic sometimes affecting the eastern seaboard. Ridging over the central U. S. also a factor.. WX/PT
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I'm skeptical about much if any heat prior to the second or third week of June. WX/PT
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The timing is uncertain but you're always promoting warmth. That's awfully nice of you. But the models are mixed as to whether there'll be much if any. It's predominantly slightly below normal temperatures to slightly above normal temperatures and there's no sustained or big-time warm-ups or heat on these maps. Whenever there is the highly energized storm track to cut it off. Below is an example: WX/PT
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I am NOT seeing any prolonged or sustained warmth in this pattern. We break out of the current cold pool in the upper atmosphere and enjoy moderation to near or perhaps slightly above normal temperatures for a day or two next week (thinking mainly upper 70s perhaps one day lower 80s) but I think we're going to re-load the extremely wet pattern of the last 6 days by around the 11th. For sustained warmth or even heat I think we'll have to wait until the last ten days of the month or in June. WX/PT
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Some hail here. WX/PT
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I think a few warmer days like 60s to around 70 or low 70s. It looks basically near to below normal temps to me until a brief shot (one or two days at most) of warmth or heat around May 12th-13th then back to cool and wet. WX/PT
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Lots of flash flooding in eastern Queens in the usual spots on Northern Blvd. WX/PT
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I've been wearing my down jacket all week. WX/PT
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I totally agree. Now the gfs in it's fantasy time-frames is going to occasionally do what it did last night and heat us up at 300+ hours. But I'm not even close to buying anything like that. In fact with El Nino getting ready to take shape all bets are off on what type of summer is ahead. This pattern would be closer to what we'd want to see in January. WX/PT
