Wxoutlooksblog
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Next potential of 90+ temperatures in NYC delayed to July 6th-9th and may actually get delayed until even later. Onshore winds, marine layers, and showers/storms in the area (not necessarily rain where you live) will keep most of us from getting there for a while yet. WX/PT
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Not terribly extended but July 4th-7th perhaps. At least there are signs on most of the models and ensembles. But the Euro last night backed off of it a little keeping it stormier. WX/PT
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They've really fallen apart over the last 30 minutes as they moved quickly across the area. Hopefully it will work out better tomorrow. WX/PT
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Here they come Staten Island, Manhattan, Brooklyn, Queens, Nassau. Our turn has arrived. Still plenty of lightning and thunder with these even though they're slightly weakened from an hour earlier. They still pack a punch. WX/PT
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Storm zone is gradually starting to shift to the east just a bit tonight. The period of time from midnight to mid morning Tuesday has potential to be a bit noisy with heavy downpours from time to time. Strong to severe storm potential resumes tomorrow PM and may even recur Wednesday PM....not sure about Wed. Thursday could be a little drier again. WX/PT
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With the upper low to the west the storms develop and hook to the left. As the upper low moves out slowly to the north and east development of storms will further east but also further north. NYC area residents looking to get their lawns watered have to hope the shift is now not too far the north and more to the east. The positive is that there's so much moisture and lift in the atmosphere over the Ohio Valley that has to sooner or later come east the odds are most of us will do well particularly later Monday into Tuesday when some severe wx is possible. WX/PT
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Next potential 90 in NYC 7/3-7/5. Then much wetter weather resumes with the next potential for heat 7/11-7/15. WX/PT
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For the radar look to the Virginia coast. Rain with some embedded thunderstorms there is headed up the eastern seaboard and if it holds together it should produce for all of LI and possibly NYC later tonight into early Saturday. WX/PT
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Again, temperatures are going to warm for the July 2nd-5th time-frame. I think it will be just be a question of how much of the rain and associated clouds with all these disturbances moving across the country affects us as to whether or not we can get into the upper 80s to lower 90s during this time frame. If we can dry out for a couple of days, maybe the 4th/5th, we could have a shot at 90. If clouds and rain persists, we will not have a shot at 90...maybe low-mid 80s. WX/PT
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I think the next 90+ potential comes during the July 2nd-5th time-frame but that doesn't mean we'll definitely get there. But I do think we have a shot at upper 80s to lower 90s over that time. Initially it looks as though the winds might again be too southerly so honing in on and hoping for July 4th, 5th. WX/PT
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I tend to agree with a somewhat bullish forecast for showers and storms over most of the NYC Metro this weekend. With dew points slowly rising if the sun breaks out for just a little with the lift moving in the atmosphere should destabilize and showers and storms should pop. I think over time these shower and storms will affect the entire region but not necessarily inland areas at the same time as coastal areas. Also, I'm beginning to get a feeling we may actually see a day or two of heat interrupt this gloomy pattern sometime on or just after the July 4th weekend. WX/PT
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If it were possible I'd be in 200% agreement. WX/PT
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There are so many things now going against a hot summer here. Firstly the models almost all agree on varying depth of an upper low in the northwest Atlantic. One after another we see disturbances moving in off of the Pacific, the jet stream about 400-500 south of where it normally is during the summer months. And as for the ridge out west, it really looks as though it's mostly going to stay there. Now to the south of us, it's a different story as from time to time pieces of the ridge break off and move east but they are mostly suppressed south of the NYC Metro with the upper low over the northwest Atlantic dominating NYC points north and east for the majority of the time, and if not temporary HP onshore winds and marine layers. Meanwhile, fronts look as though they'll get stuck right over us bringing at times above normal cloudcover, showers and storms and sometimes rain. I am thinking 15 or fewer 90+ days at the Park and fewer than 10 wouldn't shock me. Enjoy! WX/PT
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Look for that to continue. WX/PT
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I think there is still uncertainty beyond three or four days whether we get a good Bermuda HP to build or one with an upper low denting the western side of it. The models go back and forth this morning's runs so far more along the stronger HP again with perhaps at least a couple of 90+ days. But I'm not totally convinced yet. WX/PT
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If the Bermuda HP that builds is too strong or displaced further north the heat will be in Burlington Montreal, Albany, and Bangor but not here. It's another one of three possible outcomes. WX/PT
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If temperatures warm dramatically once the rain ends don't be surprised to see some showers and storms pop. But we'll see if there is too much cloudcover or if it takes too long to get out from underneath what's over us. WX/PT
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The Euro drew up these kinds of solutions for a week only to drop them in favor of a stronger Bermuda HP for one and a half days now back to its original thinking. You think it flips back to a strong Bermuda HP? Maybe but I doubt it. WX/PT
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European model back to wetter less warm scenario now with the upper lows over the southeast and southeasterly winds here. It goes back and forth. Followed by a mid Atlantic soaker. WX/PT
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Getting some good rain now here. A few rumbles in the distance. WX/PT
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Most of the models now seeming to adjusting to a considerably warmer look for the last 8 days of June. We'll see if they don't flip back to the extremely wet pattern but the 00Z models tonight so far showing an outside shot at 90 on at least a couple of days in the last 8 days of of the month. The coastal storms and inside runners of only a couple of days back seem to have pretty much vanished on the most recent maps. WX/PT
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I'm sandwiched for lunchtime between that one and the one to my e. I think the Astoria storm eventually has eyes at me and eventually will be a hail producer. WX/PT
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I had that a half hour earlier now here I go again. WX/PT
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Meanwhile here's what was supposed to be one of the 2-3 hot days at the end of June today on the GFS. WX/PT
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We could talk about if El Nino wasn't setting up but I think things would be very different right now if that wasn't happening. Entering into El Nino will not be good if you like a long hot summer here. Once the El Nino is established or weakening could also be a very different story. WX/PT
