Wxoutlooksblog
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Again don't agree. If we are getting heavy snow or moderate snow, it's the day after tomorrow. There is lots of time or corrections either way. Anyone remember Boxing Day? WX/PT
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In other words, the snow would begin in about 36 hours but you are tossing all the global model runs other than the ones from the last 7 hours? I don't agree with that. The weather forecast models over history have notoriously shifted back and forth prior to storm events whether they verified or not. I think it's early and very exaggerated with such a close call to at this point say the NYC proper is "pretty much out of it". WX/PT
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That's one run on a weekend. WX/PT
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Yeah, I wouldn't bet on NAM but would I bet on any of the others? Not really. There's still lots of uncertainty. These models are not as good as they should be. If I were at this point with the NGM and ETA I'd feel better. WX/PT
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If NAM were right (rare prior to 6 hours in advance) we would have normal or above normal snowfall for winter 2022-2023..lol. WX/PT
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Though the insane high amounts now shown on the models are possible, forecasting this storm I would wait one more model run before going crazy. Tomorrow is going to be all rain. There's 12 more hours to alert the public and 36 more hours of shopping time. And half of this 24" of snow for LGA falls on a northwest wind. Very unusual but with those vertical velocities it's possible but extremely rare. So for now, I'm going for 6-12" for the NYC Metro with more north and west and higher elevations. Winter Storm Watches should be up for the entire area no later than tonight. WX/PT
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Great analysis!
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When it's this close it's over until it's over. The ECMWF which last run had the low near Boston now has it over Cape Cod which is an improvement. It also intensifies further south, also an improvement over last run. And on Wednesday it moves away extremely slowly and there would probably be, if these maps are correct, precipitation rotating around the storm's center back into parts of the NYC Metro from the north and east until around mid-day. WX/PT
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I would not entirely agree that there's no cold air supply. The cold is not extreme and it is marginal but to say there's no cold air supply is wrong. There is a HP system wrapped around the Norlun signature trough and that HP is marginally cold enough. In addition, if the low is as tucked as NAM shows you'll see a period of east southeasterly winds off of the relatively warm ocean causing temperatures to rise into the 40s. If you get that and then dynamic cooling you're not going to cool enough in the NYC Metro to see accumulating snow until it's too late, maybe not even then. WX/PT
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There are some patterns in which the NAM performs better and some when it's performance is horrible. It's been pretty bad lately more towards the bottom of it's performance levels. WX/PT
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If what the NAM shows tonight were the final track most of the NYC Metro Region would see little if any snow. Maybe a period of rain/sleet/snow mix at the start and then just heavy rain. The low hasn't even begun to bomb out as the European has repeatedly indicated it would and it's tucked into the NJ coastline. Not good. But the NAM's accuracy range is about 6 hours and we are a long ways off from that. WX/PT
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I would much rather see the Euro where it is at this point than closer in. Anything too close probably ends up tracking right over us or to our west and all rain. The current track and energy transfer is perfect to me at this range for evolving into a mid March frozen precip event. WX/PT
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Still a couple of significant wintry weather threats IMO including next weekend. I think consistently spring type temperatures 50s/60s are still at least two-three weeks away. We'll get a day or two here and there in between bouts of cold in the meantime. WX/PT
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I don't know why you'd say that so certainly. There's plenty of cold air still and as we know, the maps more than seven days out are rarely correct. While the later it gets the chances of significant wintry weather decrease there have been major winter storms into April and as long as there's cold air around, there'a a chance. WX/PT
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Some of what appear to be snow bands just about now moving into upper Manhattan appear to be increasing in areal coverage and intensity. The next 2-3 hours could feature 1-2"/hour snowfall rates at times leaving some locations with up to 6" or possibly even a bit more. I'm thinking North Shore LI, Coastal Ct. WX/PT
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Here in eastern Queens on the north shore I'm not expecting much more than an inch or two if that. WX/PT
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I think some folks on LI who may be expecting 3-5" may get disappointed. It's just not cold enough and there's not enough vertical velocity with most of it being offshore or to our north and west. The s-se wind doesn't help either. This air can only cool so much and in order to pile up you need maximum intensity which I don't think is going to last long enough or steadily enough. WX/PT
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I think wet snow as this second low center moves away is a stretch but not impossible. I'm very skeptical. Anyway, beyond this it's just warmer and warmer and warmer. We'll probably hit 70 sometime this month. WX/PT ,
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I don't hold the blowtorch of this week against the event next Saturday. We've had a number of snowstorms which followed warm-ups even to 60 or 70 degrees (in late Feb or March). The problem is the likelihood of a relatively poorly organized storm system and lack of really cold air available at the time of the event. WX/PT
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I think it would be quite difficult for coastal areas to get accumulating snow out of this no less any snow at all. Temperatures probably in the upper 30s at best. WX/PT
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My condolences on your mom's unexpected passing. WX/PT
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I don't even consider the first one cold. The discussion previous was primarily about later in the week/weekend. I guess if I'm not pinpoint specific you're going to assume I'm making an incorrect comment. 2-3 posts above mine nobody but you are even mentioning the airmass for Tues-Thurs and by my words it is clear what I'm talking about. WX/PT
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There's a reasonable chance it ends up colder than forecast just because of the cold air's origins and it's track into the lower 48. It's not dumping south then coming east it's coming down across the upper Great Lakes and Ontario and the winds will blow right down the Hudson Valley which often brings us our coldest temperatures here in NYC. WX/PT
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Nam has been awful. I think the verdict is still out but it continues to be very difficult to get accumulating snow at Central Park. And anything frozen that falls would be over quickly not lasting more than 45 minutes if that. Models could look still different by tomorrow. WX/PT
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At 216 hours not necessarily. As shown now, yes. But let's see what future runs show. WX/PT
