Wxoutlooksblog
-
Posts
1,034 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by Wxoutlooksblog
-
This front was on the GFS two days ago and on a few runs of the NAM 3KM. I noted it in my last post. It's going to be difficult for Central Park to hit 90 today and tomorrow, today because of cloud cover and showers/storms and tomorrow because of a light onshore breeze. This is not a heatwave for NYC in my opinion. WX/PT
-
Don't be shocked if NYC does not have a heatwave at all. The problem being an extremely backdoor front which would affect coastal areas as far west as NYC itself from NYC to Maine. The coastal b-door front would move from the northeast Monday night. So maybe we would hit 90 on Sunday or Monday but more likely high temperatures at Central Park are around 88 or 89. And Tuesday we could be dealing with onshore winds almost all day. Now I'm not sure if this scenario will come true but it can be seen on the regular NAM and NAM 3KM and it would be consistent with the history of our potential heat for the last 6 weeks. WX/PT
-
Still have a shot at 90. Sun broke through in last hour. We'll see. WX/PT
-
Too much cloudcover and the cold front is moving in quickly. Central Park will probably top out at about 86. WX/PT
-
I think Monday is the best possibility for a 90. Very slight chance Sunday. Beyond then, again if you believe the GFS there could be a chance Thursday or Friday but the GFS performance has been extremely poor particularly beyond 4 days so I'm not ready to take it very seriously. WX/PT
-
Again the GFS with a very abbreviated glancing blow of heat for Monday followed by potentially severe storms Monday evening as a cold front crosses and unseasonably cool weather later Tuesday through Saturday....if you believe the GFS. CMC is basically the same idea. This not a forecast but just what these particular model runs suggest. WX/PT
-
Of course you finally get your backdoor at 216 hours. But the only support right now this solution has the GFS from 5 days ago. That's not a strong yes vote. And the idea of the LP kicking the first HP behind the first b-door front out to sea seems not right for no other reason than it hasn't happened all summer. WX/PT
-
But what happens when the heat is expanding and the HP dropping behind the b-door front is weak and only a nose from a HP in central Canada. The HP becomes a LP and our heat is extended possibly throughout next week. We'll be questioning this solution today for a while before buying it. WX/PT
-
And at 168 hours your b-door front is almost here. But we are pretty solidly in this heat for a day and a half possibly 2 days. WX/PT
-
And yes at 144 we are looking at an expanding heat dome of very hot air. I would be careful about the idea that this will in fact occur. I think right now the odds weigh more heavily in favor of a b-door front around the 22nd but this run at 144 hours makes it look like a longer heatwave. WX/PT
-
May have to eat my words as at 120 while not as warm here the heat dome is building into Canada on the Euro. It's going to have a hard time bypassing us completely if this run is correct. WX/PT
-
Euro through 96 hours is coming in cooler than last night's run and less aggressive with the hot air mass over the central U.S. We'll see how this run completes but I think we're moving towards a consensus that we'll be on the edge of the hot air mass for 24 hours Sun-Mon and then cooler. WX/PT
-
I have yellow jackets all the time in my apartment as do my nextdoor neighbors. We are attributing it to an abundance of construction going on next door to us on our block where an 8 story building is going up. Yellow jackets can deliver a mean sting which is worse if you're allergic. I have not been stung yet. They do not live long once they're indoors. WX/PT
-
Is this is a special bug thread? Anyway, not to be off-topic, CMC forecasting some high heat Tuesday and Wed of next week we are inside of 582dm thicknesses. Probably close to or around 100 Tuesday and about 98 before the b-door front comes through Wednesday if CMC were correct. Much cooler Thursday on brisk n-ne winds. GFS and ECMWF much different each model indicating one marginally hot day if that probably on Monday. We'll see which is right. WX/PT
-
I see them all the time. WX/PT
-
Looks like a few days of heat coming up starting next weekend. I do not foresee anything extreme or crazy like the GFS has shown on many of its runs. As for last night's storms, the lightning was great where I am, the thunder I've heard louder. WX/PT
-
It looks like 2 or 3 surges of heat the first one borderline heat around the 12th-13th then a little more from the 17th or 18th-19th a break and then more heat from the 21st perhaps. The GFS is kinda nuts. I'm following the EPS mostly. WX/PT
-
They're actually in the warm sector. WX/PT
-
Basically agree. It's weakening. WX/PT
-
You might be rushing the heat and humidity back in. I think it takes until August 15th for us to have our next 90+ threat. WAR tries to build in earlier but is short circuited by a few backdoor and other weak cold fronts with showers and storms. Starting about the 15th I think we could see a little more prolonged heat. Of course NYC (Central Park) has not had an official heatwave (3 or more days 90+) this season so far. I think they will have two or three more shots at one between now and September 10th.....probably two shots in August. Around Aug 15th-17th and again Aug 20th-23rd. WX/PT
-
Amazing changes on some of the models tonight. Initially, GFS is notably cooler than previous runs through the first half of its run with a a bit of a trough in the east and the heat ridge out west. Later in the run around August 15th the WAR builds in the east. However, the CMC has reversed the whole picture with a trough in the west and a massive ridge in the east by 240 hours. Interesting to see where we're going with two ideas competing to see which is correct. No heat vs. heat for our region. WX/PT
-
Euro now showing a second low pressure accompanied by another cold front possibly delaying the heat/humidity from 8/14 to 8/16. Just ahead of that front it appears we could see a day of warmth possibly heat and humidity on the 12th. WX/PT
-
Yes all the models showing strong low pressure moving across the upper Great Lakes to a position north of Maine early next week dragging with it a strong cold front which could initiate a severe weather threat August 7th-9th across most of the northeast. Behind that high pressure which is initially on the cool side builds in but the longer range models/ensembles show how WAR swallows that HP system up and back builds a heat and humidity pump around it for mid August. WX/PT
-
Having been here quite a while it's been a long time since I've experienced as pleasant a stretch of weather in early August as this. Maybe 2014 but I was still receiving chemo and radiation so my memory could be a little blurred. In spite of some of the modeling for later this month which has us in nearer to normal temperatures I do think we will see more hot weather this summer. WX/PT
-
This is not 2002. There should not be any comparisons. I'm not saying we're going to have 10 consecutive 90+ days in August. Just that we may average more above normal temperatures than the rest of the summer has had here. It often happens after a normal or cooler than normal first half. WX/PT
