Wxoutlooksblog

I'm starting to consider the real possibility that the NYC Metro Region could experience a summer of near to even somewhat below normal temperatures. There's no Bermuda HP to speak of and really no signs of one. And the developing El Nino is likely to keep the south energized with upper lows and moisture with hybrid low pressure systems over the western Atlantic sometimes affecting the eastern seaboard. Ridging over the central U. S. also a factor.. WX/PT

I'm skeptical about much if any heat prior to the second or third week of June. WX/PT

The timing is uncertain but you're always promoting warmth. That's awfully nice of you. But the models are mixed as to whether there'll be much if any. It's predominantly slightly below normal temperatures to slightly above normal temperatures and there's no sustained or big-time warm-ups or heat on these maps. Whenever there is the highly energized storm track to cut it off. Below is an example: WX/PT

I am NOT seeing any prolonged or sustained warmth in this pattern. We break out of the current cold pool in the upper atmosphere and enjoy moderation to near or perhaps slightly above normal temperatures for a day or two next week (thinking mainly upper 70s perhaps one day lower 80s) but I think we're going to re-load the extremely wet pattern of the last 6 days by around the 11th. For sustained warmth or even heat I think we'll have to wait until the last ten days of the month or in June. WX/PT

Some hail here. WX/PT

I think a few warmer days like 60s to around 70 or low 70s. It looks basically near to below normal temps to me until a brief shot (one or two days at most) of warmth or heat around May 12th-13th then back to cool and wet. WX/PT

Lots of flash flooding in eastern Queens in the usual spots on Northern Blvd. WX/PT

I've been wearing my down jacket all week. WX/PT

I totally agree. Now the gfs in it's fantasy time-frames is going to occasionally do what it did last night and heat us up at 300+ hours. But I'm not even close to buying anything like that. In fact with El Nino getting ready to take shape all bets are off on what type of summer is ahead. This pattern would be closer to what we'd want to see in January. WX/PT

I think at least the first two thirds of May will likely be a little cooler than normal but cooler than April? Maybe. But I really do think alot will depend on whether or not and how much temperatures rebound in the last ten days of the month. It's possible they could just rebound to near normal and not above normal. It's also possible that a wet pattern could reload after a drier period in the middle of the month. We'll just have to wait and see. But as of now, the operational Euro continues to have us in a northwesterly flow aloft on May 7th. That does not bode well for warm or even near normal temperatures. WX/PT

I don't see any sign of it. Could the cooler than normal break for one or two days? Sure. But I think it would be for a one day shot of near normal". I see no sign whatsoever of a ridge in the east which is necessary for prolonged above average temperatures. For that I think at the earliest late in the third week of May--17th-24th....at the earliest. At the latest second week of June. WX/PT

I anticipate at this point that any return to above normal temperatures for the NYC Metro region would probably occur late during the 3rd week or 4th week of May. We might get into near normal temperatures a few days to a week before then. WX/PT

Rolling thunder here with rain as the line moves in. WX/PT

An onshore flow will keep temperatures cooler than previously expected today, tomorrow, and Saturday with 70s to near 80 only over some spots well inland well north west and northeast of NYC as our temperatures stay mainly in the 50s and 60s. WX/PT

I suspect April finishes out on the cool/wet side and the first ten days of May are near to below normal with regards to temperatures. Precipitation for the first ten days of May very uncertain at this point. WX/PT

Initially most of the shower and t-storm activity will be focused over Pa and western NJ but I think it will drift eastward this evening and if it doesn't wash out before it gets here most of the NYC Metro Region will get some rainfall very late this afternoon or more likely early tonight. I think tomorrow is mainly dry aside from some low clouds and patchy fog. WX/PT

Well, the Park made it to 90 for the second consecutive day. There could be an outside shot at 90 around the 23rd but I really think the next one is during May. WX/PT

Close call for 90 at the Park in the next hour or so then high cloudiness begins to stream up from the south as the winds gradually kick around to more southerly. I think it would be the last 90 at the Park for at least 2-3 weeks if they even get there. WX/PT

I think for somebody 90 is within reach. WX/PT

Actually there was. Almost every GFS operational run then CMC and Euro showed it clearly. In April when you get 564dm thicknesses here on light northwesterly winds or light variable winds and no moisture around you're going to be above normal. WX/PT

EPS is right about normal. I'm really not at this point seeing ensemble maps that would support above normal temperatures for the last 8 or 9 days of April. WX/PT

I think that this month may not end up in the top ten warmest Aprils. It looks to me like the NYC Metro Region has two very above normal days then a little less above normal for a day or two then probably near to perhaps slightly below normal normal for the rest of the month and kind of wet. My thinking is that we might have to wait several weeks before we get into more above normal temperatures again, sometime around mid May. But Thursday & Friday this week could be mid-upper 80s with a chance that somebody hits 90. WX/PT

NAM now gets NYC to 80 tomorrow. Maybe they'll get there. Extremely warm pattern ahead with a reasonable chance that Central Park gets to 90 degrees at some point this month. WX/PT

West of NYC. WX/PT

Not impossible. Will depend on cloudcover and how southerly vs. westerly the winds. WX/PT