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Wxoutlooksblog

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  1. Wxoutlooksblog
    Surely some inland areas would see Thanksgiving Day snow from this map if it verified. I don't have precip type maps yet but for the coast it might be a close call for rain vs. snow. You do have an e-se wind initially but a good 50/50 low and incoming cold high pressure might help keep the storm south of the area and winds which could back around to north-northeast as the storm heads east south of LI could cause it to at least end as snow at the coast. WX/PT https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ec-fast/2024112200/ec-fast_z500_mslp_us_8.png
  2. Wxoutlooksblog
    I think even the Bronx and north shore of Queens Cty could see some wet flakes later tomorrow. WX/PT
  3. Wxoutlooksblog
    The faster it comes out east the weaker it will be. WX/PT
  4. Wxoutlooksblog
    Some changes on the GFS this morning, not sure if they are real. The ridge over the Plains states starting to break down around 246 hours and a trough begins to take shape. In the longrun the Gulf of Mexico could open up, we'll see. We already see more activity swinging through from west to east with another Great Lakes runner around Nov 27th. WX/PT
  5. Wxoutlooksblog
    Totally agree with this. With a ridge over the center of the country the GOM moisture is cut off to any system moving across. I think moisture content of even an important low pressure system will probably be less than it usually would be. WX/PT
  6. Wxoutlooksblog
    Looks like parts of our region could get close to 80 on election day and November 6th. The ridiculous warmth and drought continue. WX/PT
  7. Wxoutlooksblog
    Odds strongly favor you will be correct. I would say different than the ones we've seen in recent previous years. I would be surprised if we didn't get more snow and colder temperatures than recent years. Then again, I see below average precipitation continuing so I'm not looking for it to be special. WX/PT
  8. Wxoutlooksblog
    We are trending towards a chillier and drier than normal pattern. It's been a very long time since we've had a colder and drier than normal winter pattern. The odds would say we're due for one. But the large scale pattern patterns do suggest that a ridge in the east builds just as winter would be establishing itself here. WX/PT
  9. Wxoutlooksblog
    How many days in a row now have we seen winds out of an easterly quadrant? It seems like since the first week of September. WX/PT
  10. Wxoutlooksblog
    Still looking for warmth at some point during the first ten days of October probably out ahead of a likely to be developing hurricane somewhere in the GOM or off the east coast. WX/PT https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ec-fast/2024092512/ec-fast_z500_mslp_us_10.png
  11. Wxoutlooksblog
    I'm getting a feeling of an extremely warm second period in October from around the 6th-10th. We'll see, lots can and will change. WX/PT
  12. Wxoutlooksblog
    I'm going to guess based on what I see, maybe early October 50% chance then the stuck up pattern reloads for most of October and a complete break from this pattern in late October or early November. WX/PT
  13. Wxoutlooksblog
    Here's what the GFS is impressed with. And it makes some sense. The cut-off over the Ohio Valley sucks it right up along the coast. But it's a long ways away and could just as easily end up in the Gulf of Mexico. WX/PT https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2024091700/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_49.png
  14. Wxoutlooksblog
    Winds out of an easterly quadrant for virtually the entire month. Amazing. I still think any rain amounts in the NYC Metro would likely be on the lighter side this week. Next week maybe better. Temperatures continue above normal but not as much so. WX/PT
  15. Wxoutlooksblog
    I still have a hard time seeing much if any of the rain to our south getting in here during the mid week period. I think the dry high pressure ridge will win out with maybe somehow a few light showers working their way across our region (drier especially NYC and points north and east). I think it remains generally on the dry side through this week with continued above normal temperatures. The models continue to flip back and forth. I tend to dismiss the wetter runs. A chance of showers is reasonable in the forecast for Wednesday into Thursday. WX/PT
  16. Wxoutlooksblog
    The big low in the north Atlantic will locks in the high pressure ridge and in turn does not allow the significant rainfall to get any further north or northeast. The coastal low will heads out to sea from this point. WX/PT https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2024091500/gfs_z500_mslp_atl_21.png
  17. Wxoutlooksblog
    Watching a series of upper lows in the north Atlantic. They have a tendency to flatten the high pressure ridge in the east if they are far enough south. This in turn allows for a little more normally west to east progression of weather systems and also allows the moisture from low pressure to move northward then northeastward affecting the NYC Metro Region Tuesday night into Wednesday. Because of the strong high pressure ridge over us, the moisture and associated low pressure to the south can also be sheared apart if it tries to move to the northwest around the ridge or kicked out to sea. The European model is showing a full variety of these options from run to run. It seems now reasonable to forecast a chance of rain from Tuesday night into Wednesday night. The Euro then rebuilds the ridge to fill in the weakness that was created behind the exiting and dissipating low pressure. WX/PT https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2024091400/ecmwf_z500_mslp_atl_53.png
  18. Wxoutlooksblog
    I don't usually but I might tend to side with the GFS and Euro AI. The way the Euro develops a storm on or near the coast right after Francine's remnants dissipate looks suspect a-la February pattern with blocking HP over the Great Lakes and northeast. With such a strong ridge I don't think it happens and most likely the rain and associated low pressure never get this far north. I might be wrong, but that's my early take on this. WX/PT
  19. Wxoutlooksblog
    This looks like near record breaking heat from the mid west into Ontario and portions of Quebec and above normal temperatures for everyone in the northeastern U.S. and mid Atlantic States. WX/PT https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ec-fast/2024090812/ec-fast_z500_mslp_us_11.png
  20. Wxoutlooksblog
    You may have to be inland to be eligible but it's still not entirely clear. The GFS seems to have a fundamental error in developing low pressure (tropical or not) in the Atlantic near the east coast. Most of the other modeling seems to place a tropical system somewhere in or at leasts closer to the Gulf of Mexico which I think is probably closer to accurate. So the question remains how close to us HP will be as to whether our winds are sw or s-sw or light variable going to onshore during the afternoon and evening hours. This could make a 10+ degree difference in temperatures on and near the coast. So at this point best we can say is that NYC and points east will have high temperatures somewhere between and inclusive of the upper 70s to lower 90s. WX/PT
  21. Wxoutlooksblog
    There are a couple of 90 days on the EC-AIFS. We'll see. WX/PT
  22. Wxoutlooksblog
    There's no heat dome for the foreseeable future now at least not on the east. Maybe not until next season. It looks as though our area maybe have a few days in the mid-upper 80s but at least at this point, I'm not seeing any more 90s in NYC. I suppose there's an outside chance in the second or third week of September but the maps appear to be trending steadily cooler. We'll see. WX/PT
  23. Wxoutlooksblog
    Kinda back building. You think the storm is moving passed you but then you see more lightning ahead of you. Tremendous nocturnal energy that we don't see often. WX/PT
  24. Wxoutlooksblog
    Booming thunder here even though I think the storm is still southeast of me. WX/PT
  25. Wxoutlooksblog
    80s maybe 90s or near 90. WX/PT
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