Wxoutlooksblog

Timing? Just as I drove by the speed camera on Northern Blvd on my way back from the gym in Great Neck I saw a flash. I think it was lightning as I was only going 29mph in a 30mph zone. Anyway 1" on my car in Great Neck and it looked like an inch on the ground in Great Neck, a little less here in Douglaston with light snow falling. WX/PT

Agree. 1-4"NYC Metro. 2 miles done 1 to go. WX/PT

Rain/sleet mix currently at Planet Fitness in Great Neck. Will it be snowing after I do my 3 mile run and ab exercises? 50% chance. WX/PT

I would make that between 5-8pm and cut amounts near the coast to a coating to 2". WX/PT

Light dusting on grass here with drizzle. WX/PT

Douglaston drizzle. This now 2-3 hour event 5-8pm WX/PT

For coastal sections I am downgrading my call to 1-4". We are losing time. Here in Douglaston light snow with nothing on the ground or car tops or pavement and little if anything on the grass. WX/PT

Steady light snow here now. WX/PT

Larger flakes starting to mix. Nothing on the ground yet Douglaston. WX/PT

Yes but will we get the inch per hour for 3-4 hours? That's the big question now. It's going to be close as this system is going to move very quickly northeast and the timing of the heavier precip and influx of cold air is all important. WX/PT

Snow is just nw of me. Graupel/sleet just sw of me. Hoping the colder air works its way in in time for snow to pile up more than an inch or two here. I still have Snizzle. GGEM may be out-performing other models we'll see. WX/PT

Nothing steady here in Douglaston yet. Light snow and drizzle mix or as I say "snizzle". WX/PT

Flurries here. Douglaston Queens. WX/PT

I think the slightly elevated temperatures that the clouds locked in will cause some locations to lose an inch or so in the first hour or two of this event. Therefore I'm shaving an inch off my forecast amounts to 2-5". WX/PT

We've still got to watch Tuesday night-Wed and even more-so Thursday night-Friday. Then I like another threat at the end of the month or very beginning of February. WX/PT

I expect generally 3-6" region-wide with a few 7" amounts possible north and west and parts of eastern LI/South shore closer to 2". WX/PT

This looks about right. I'm calling it 2-6". WX/PT

I would not be so certain that there might not be a monster in our not too distant future. Now I do assume with regards to monsters you are referring to 15" or more. We did have quite a number of those from 2010 to 2020, very unusual to have that many in a decade. As long as we can keep the cold we'll have a chance as the jet stream gradually slows down. WX/PT

I was really surprised to discover how inactive the group is on numerous snow threats next week. I figured there'd be 2 or 3 threads going for 19-20, 21-22, and the 24th. I can see amounts between 3-6" in many locations late Sunday into Sunday evening. I do not think there's going to be much rain around the region except for a rain/sleet mix for an hour or two way out east on LI, maybe along portions of the south shore. I really do think it's a snowstorm. Then Wednesday probably has even a higher ceiling if the storm were to come closer as does Friday which is a pure coastal. WX/PT

On another note, most of the long range guidance seems to favor our moving into a warmer than normal pattern as February and March roll around. Is anyone seeing anything different than I am on this? In the actual pattern I do not see it happening but maybe after the Jan 19-25 time-frame the pattern could flip to warmer. I'll believe it when I see it. WX/PT

Next time frame to watch for measurable snow as we pile it up this season January 19th-25th with a stalled out front to our south and cold high pressure to the north. CMC and European models show the potential with overrunning and stable waves of low pressure moving northeastward along the front to our south. We'll see if anything comes out of it. WX/PT

Don't give up on this season. There's a long ways to go. And in February and March you normally get a lot of deep storms and the jet slows down allowing more amplification of the jet stream. WX/PT

I think the floor is a lot lower than the ceiling is high at this point. We'll see if it amounts to more than yesterday. It could be 1-3"/2-4", remote chance of up to 5", better chance of a coating to an inch, or almost nothing at all. It's going to move quickly probably in Friday night late and out by Saturday afternoon. We have to slow this jet stream down significantly to allow a trough to dig and to get a major storm up here. WX/PT

I do not see that. It looks cold just like what we've been having. Severe cold to me is lows 10-15 highs 20-25 or lower. Don't see it. WX/PT

Oh I think this is going to end up much closer to the ECMWF track. I'm not taking the GFS seriously. WX/PT