Wxoutlooksblog

Overrunning/CAD event possible Thurs-Fri Dec 26-27th reference Euro and GFS. WX/PT https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2024122206/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_17.png

I saw 1.8" on the PNS. WX/PT 84 NOUS41 KOKX 211403 PNSOKX CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-220152- Public Information Statement National Weather Service New York NY 903 AM EST Sat Dec 21 2024 ...SNOWFALL REPORTS... Location Amount Time/Date Provider ...Connecticut... ...Fairfield County... Stamford 1.0 S 2.5 in 0800 AM 12/21 COCORAHS Ridgefield 2.4 NNE 1.7 in 0700 AM 12/21 COCORAHS Bethel 1.5 in 0724 AM 12/21 COCORAHS Fairfield 1.5 in 0730 AM 12/21 Public Norwalk 1.5 in 0700 AM 12/21 COCORAHS Ridgefield 1.5 in 0650 AM 12/21 COCORAHS Monroe 1.0 in 0600 AM 12/21 COCORAHS Bridgeport Airport 0.8 in 0700 AM 12/21 Official NWS Obs Brookfield 0.8 in 0700 AM 12/21 COCORAHS ...Middlesex County... Higganum 1.0 in 0800 AM 12/21 COCORAHS Clinton 0.8 in 0736 AM 12/21 Broadcast Media Durham 0.5 in 0700 AM 12/21 COCORAHS ...New Haven County... Naugatuck 0.7 in 0700 AM 12/21 COCORAHS Madison Center 1.3 N 0.5 in 0700 AM 12/21 COCORAHS ...New London County... Pawcatuck 0.7 in 0700 AM 12/21 COCORAHS Norwich 0.5 in 0600 AM 12/21 COCORAHS ...New Jersey... ...Bergen County... Oakland 4.0 in 0800 AM 12/21 COCORAHS Montvale 1.8 ESE 3.8 in 0800 AM 12/21 COCORAHS Fair Lawn 3.0 in 0714 AM 12/21 COCORAHS North Arlington 2.5 in 0700 AM 12/21 COCORAHS ...Essex County... Essex Fells 4.5 in 0700 AM 12/21 Public West Orange 4.0 in 0700 AM 12/21 Public Livingston 3.4 in 0820 AM 12/21 Public Montclair 3.2 in 0730 AM 12/21 COCORAHS Maplewood 2.6 in 0700 AM 12/21 COCORAHS 1 NNW Newark Airport 2.2 in 0700 AM 12/21 Official NWS Obs ...Hudson County... Harrison 3.0 in 0800 AM 12/21 COOP 1 WSW Hoboken 2.9 in 0800 AM 12/21 COCORAHS ...Passaic County... Little Falls 4.0 in 0825 AM 12/21 Public Little Falls 3.7 in 0700 AM 12/21 COCORAHS Hawthorne 3.4 in 0740 AM 12/21 Trained Spotter ...Union County... Scotch Plains 3.4 in 0720 AM 12/21 Public Cranford Twp 0.6 NNW 3.3 in 0700 AM 12/21 COCORAHS Westfield 3.3 in 0630 AM 12/21 COCORAHS Plainfield 2.8 in 0700 AM 12/21 Trained Spotter Westfield 0.8 WSW 2.8 in 0700 AM 12/21 COCORAHS ...New York... ...Bronx County... 1 NW Mott Haven 2.0 in 0550 AM 12/21 Public ...Kings County... Midwood 2.7 in 0740 AM 12/21 Broadcast Media ...Nassau County... 1 ENE Glen Cove 2.2 in 0619 AM 12/21 Public Hicksville 1.4 SSE 1.9 in 0700 AM 12/21 COCORAHS Massapequa Park 1.3 in 0700 AM 12/21 COCORAHS Syosset 1.0 in 0732 AM 12/21 COOP ...New York (Manhattan) County... New York 1.8 in 0700 AM 12/21 Official NWS Obs ...Orange County... Warwick 4.8 in 0700 AM 12/21 COCORAHS Warwick 3.9 W 4.6 in 0600 AM 12/21 COCORAHS Port Jervis 4.5 in 0630 AM 12/21 COCORAHS 3 NNE Unionville 4.2 in 0430 AM 12/21 Public Monroe 4.1 in 0620 AM 12/21 Trained Spotter Greenwood Lake 4.0 in 0800 AM 12/21 COCORAHS ...Putnam County... Cold Spring 2.7 in 0715 AM 12/21 COCORAHS Nelsonville 0.3 S 2.5 in 0715 AM 12/21 COCORAHS ...Queens County... Little Neck 0.3 SE 2.7 in 0730 AM 12/21 COCORAHS 1 W Elmhurst 2.0 in 0640 AM 12/21 Public Howard Beach 2.0 in 0700 AM 12/21 COCORAHS 1 E Jackson Heights 2.0 in 0700 AM 12/21 Official NWS Obs NYC/JFK 1.8 in 0700 AM 12/21 Official NWS Obs ...Richmond County... 1 E New Dorp 3.0 in 0730 AM 12/21 Public ...Rockland County... Stony Point 3.0 in 0700 AM 12/21 COCORAHS ...Suffolk County... 1 NW Dix Hills 2.1 in 0710 AM 12/21 NWS Employee Commack 1.3 SW 2.0 in 0700 AM 12/21 COCORAHS Centerport 1.9 in 0700 AM 12/21 COOP Islip Airport 1.9 in 0700 AM 12/21 Official NWS Obs East Quogue 1.0 in 0830 AM 12/21 NWS Employee Mount Sinai 1.0 in 0800 AM 12/21 COOP Blue Point 0.3 ENE 0.8 in 0700 AM 12/21 COCORAHS Upton 0.6 in 0700 AM 12/21 Official NWS Obs Baiting Hollow 0.5 in 0700 AM 12/21 COOP ...Westchester County... Shrub Oak 2.0 in 0700 AM 12/21 COOP Pelham 1.5 in 0745 AM 12/21 Public South Salem 1.3 in 0715 AM 12/21 COCORAHS &&

It's definitely getting weaker. You can see weather systems moving significantly slower all across the country. WX/PT

On the European model the Friday night storm system is a bit further northwest of last ECMWF run. I'm not sure it's going to make a difference. We'll see what tomorrow brings. Again this has very little time to turn into anything. WX/PT https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ec-fast/2024121800/ec-fast_z500_mslp_us_4.png

The weekend system at least for now is done. Almost no chance of anything from this as the Euro takes it further out to sea. WX/PT https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ec-fast/2024121712/ec-fast_z500_mslp_us_4.png

The Euro is a jump to the west and a stronger storm is being generated offshore. But it has very little time in which the trough must go negative and that's not happening just yet. But it might. Also noticing that the clipper is dropping a little further south. If the trend continues we could be in business but it's just so little time in which this all has to come together I'm still skeptical. If we were in business because of the speed I think it would be a quick hitting inch or two at best if it even accumulated. You cannot get a big storm with anything moving this fast. Give me some more blocking and retrograde the ridge out west, different story. WX/PT https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ec-fast/2024121700/ec-fast_z500_mslp_us_5.png

When you get the low that much further north in that position look at what else is further north. The antecedent HP is practically off the map and it wasn't that cold to begin with. Incoming HP now a bit far to the west. You could have a r/s line nw of the NYC. But I think that's the only model showing the HP and LP that far north. It's going to be difficult to make this happen, not saying it's impossible. WX/PT

It's not nearly enough for what you're hoping for and the jet stream is still incredibly fast. I just still cannot see this trough going negative in time for a snowstorm in NYC but I agree it still bares watching. WX/PT

But by using this data as proof you are saying we cannot have more decades of 6 or 7 winters per decade of 30+. I'm not sure I buy your conclusion because there are many weather pattern changes from winter to winter for many reasons and not only global warming. In fact many changes from winter to winter could have nothing to do with global warming. And certainly lack of cold is not why we have had no snow this December. WX/PT

While I believe the science of global warming and climate change I do not believe the above data is very good evidence of it. So far in the 2020s Central Park is ahead of the 1980s and tied with the 1970s. With 5 more winters ahead of us this decade this is IMO not evidence that our average number of 30+ seasonal snowfall amounts per decade is going down. We had two at second highest back to back 2000s and 2010s. WX/PT

I'd just add that it is kind of a pathetic situation. We have strong gusty northeasterly winds, high pressure is cold and in almost a perfect spot, there's even a bit of an inverted trough. You'd think somehow we'd be able to squeeze some flakes out of this. There is enough room for a system to develop further west but it doesn't. And I don't think it will. Sad. WX/PT

Tomorrow's 00Z GFS is faster and further out to sea with the weekend system/non-system than last run. WX/PT https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2024121600/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_22.png

I totally agree with what you say. While the above fantasy is possible and we cannot completely write off anything 6-7 days ahead, it is an extremely remote chance. WX/PT

No problem with cold air. But there is a problem this year with the fast west to east jet stream and the fact that no more than one model picks up on even the threat every one in five runs of it. The odds are heavily opposed to this threat materializing whereas in 2010 the odds were just not at all that way. It is a very different year, different jet stream pattern, just not the same. I know you want to say well this is similar and that is similar so maybe it will happen this time. And I say well maybe it will, or else I wouldn't have even drawn attention to it. But all probabilities right now oppose this year's threat whereas they didn't in this same way in 2010 when there was a very amplified jet not nearly as fast. WX/PT

During 2010 we were saying the same thing two days before the storm. This is 7-8 days ahead. I also do not think the La Ninas or the overall weather regimes are comparable. WX/PT

The Euro today brought the ocean storm Dec 21-22-23 closer to the area than previous runs (lately). I would still think this remains primarily an ocean storm but it does bear some watching because if it trended just a little closer we'd be getting some snow. WX/PT https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ec-fast/2024121512/ec-fast_z500_mslp_us_7.png

In the NYC Metro Region I do not think anything will accumulate if there is even any wet snow at all (which I doubt). The one threat I have noted several times that kept hope alive this month was for Dec 21-22nd. Right now IMO it doesn't look likely to come to fruition. But we'll see. Other than that unlikely threat, I see no accumulating snow threats for the NYC Metro Region for at least the next 2 weeks. WX/PT

Actually, it doesn't have to. It may or may not. WX/PT

The maps will keep changing. We know this because they almost always do. WX/PT

The 00Z operational Euro has it over eastern LI Thursday evening. I think it's going to be all rain at the coast but it's starting to look like heavy wind-driven rain, nasty. WX/PT https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ec-fast/2024112400/ec-fast_T850_neus_6.png

Surely some inland areas would see Thanksgiving Day snow from this map if it verified. I don't have precip type maps yet but for the coast it might be a close call for rain vs. snow. You do have an e-se wind initially but a good 50/50 low and incoming cold high pressure might help keep the storm south of the area and winds which could back around to north-northeast as the storm heads east south of LI could cause it to at least end as snow at the coast. WX/PT https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ec-fast/2024112200/ec-fast_z500_mslp_us_8.png

I think even the Bronx and north shore of Queens Cty could see some wet flakes later tomorrow. WX/PT

The faster it comes out east the weaker it will be. WX/PT

Some changes on the GFS this morning, not sure if they are real. The ridge over the Plains states starting to break down around 246 hours and a trough begins to take shape. In the longrun the Gulf of Mexico could open up, we'll see. We already see more activity swinging through from west to east with another Great Lakes runner around Nov 27th. WX/PT

Totally agree with this. With a ridge over the center of the country the GOM moisture is cut off to any system moving across. I think moisture content of even an important low pressure system will probably be less than it usually would be. WX/PT