Wxoutlooksblog

I would think we could have an isolated warm day or two during the first half of April but a "warm pattern" probably not. I think that in the cool or possibly even cold pattern we could see a warm day if a warm front lifts just north of us briefly. There's still leftover confluence over northern New England and the Canadian Maritime provinces and the duration of any warmth should be very brief. Later in April possibly as early as sometime during the second or third week of the month may be a different story where we could have an isolated cool/cold day in a much warmer pattern (70s/low 80s). WX/PT

To some extent at least for the first week or ten days of April I tend to agree with Accuweather if that's what they're going for. I think that towards the end of the second week of April or the beginning or middle of the third week of April the pattern will somewhat dramatically flip/flop bringing warmth to most of the East Coast from D.C. to NYC. When I speak of warmth in this case I am speaking of 70s and lower 80s, not 90. WX/PT

For the potentially warm or snowy period 3/28-4/3 depending on what you look at, I'm looking for the warmth to get stuck just south of NYC with fog/drizzle then showers/storms temperatures in the 60s mostly. 73 up to Newark maybe. But I could see rapid warming during the second or third week of April perhaps up to mid 80s region wide for a time, and 90 first or second week of May. I think we'll see a strong Bermuda HP set up early and often this season. WX/PT

It looks as though we might transition back to a colder wetter pattern for a while beginning next weekend. WX/PT

I think the coldest we are going to see from this point is highs in the lower 40s and lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s but I think over most of the next 2 weeks except for just a couple of days 50s+ we'll see highs upper 40s and lows lower 30s. I do not think the NYC Metro Region will see any more accumulating snows. Maybe a flurry. I think there is a 50% chance we hit 70 degrees briefly on one of the warmer days in the next 2 weeks. WX/PT

Though not shown on the HRRR I do believe there will be a general dusting to an inch across most of the NYC Metro Region tomorrow afternoon and evening. WX/PT

Not for Long Island and most of Queens. WX/PT

We've come around to many of the models now showing light snow for at least a time with at least 36 more hours to go. Additional changes possible/likely. WX/PT

We'll see it could also go the other way and the winter pattern could last until the first week of April, but I hope not. Some of the longer range climate models had a change to warmer in the east around mid March but they've been essentially wrong for most of the winter. WX/PT

I think the second half might be. WX/PT

I do believe that there's a likelihood that this comes back a bit. How much is the question. The models have done their typical fluctuations and in the end it is normal and typical for this kind of storm to come a little closer than the wide swing to the right indicated. WX/PT

I've seen 70s to near 80 and snow 3-4 days later. March is a time when the temperatures often swing wildly back and forth. WX/PT

My gut feeling right now is that it probably won't come back but I cannot draw that conclusion absolutely for a few more run cycles, probably 12Z tomorrow and 00Z Tuesday. At the moment all we have for hope is the NAM (which is not much) and a few outlier ensemble members. Everything else is a "not happening" and in the last 8 hours has been getting worse, not better. But in the passed we have sometimes seen an unexpected reversal in trends within the last 72 hours. So I wait until tomorrow night or Tuesday 12Z to sound the "all clear". WX/PT

I wouldn't be sounding an "all clear" for this storm until tomorrow night the earliest, Tuesday night the latest. WX/PT

If you get a trend back from Icon it will probably be 6-12 hours prior to the onset of snow (if there is any). Icon is not one of the top tier models. ECMWF is still the best, GGEM very good, UKMET good. I'd look for changes in one of those three models to signal a reverse in trends if it is to be. Icon and GFS would not be first to the punch bowl. WX/PT