Wxoutlooksblog
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The faster it comes out east the weaker it will be. WX/PT
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Some changes on the GFS this morning, not sure if they are real. The ridge over the Plains states starting to break down around 246 hours and a trough begins to take shape. In the longrun the Gulf of Mexico could open up, we'll see. We already see more activity swinging through from west to east with another Great Lakes runner around Nov 27th. WX/PT
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Totally agree with this. With a ridge over the center of the country the GOM moisture is cut off to any system moving across. I think moisture content of even an important low pressure system will probably be less than it usually would be. WX/PT
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Looks like parts of our region could get close to 80 on election day and November 6th. The ridiculous warmth and drought continue. WX/PT
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Odds strongly favor you will be correct. I would say different than the ones we've seen in recent previous years. I would be surprised if we didn't get more snow and colder temperatures than recent years. Then again, I see below average precipitation continuing so I'm not looking for it to be special. WX/PT
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We are trending towards a chillier and drier than normal pattern. It's been a very long time since we've had a colder and drier than normal winter pattern. The odds would say we're due for one. But the large scale pattern patterns do suggest that a ridge in the east builds just as winter would be establishing itself here. WX/PT
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How many days in a row now have we seen winds out of an easterly quadrant? It seems like since the first week of September. WX/PT
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Still looking for warmth at some point during the first ten days of October probably out ahead of a likely to be developing hurricane somewhere in the GOM or off the east coast. WX/PT https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ec-fast/2024092512/ec-fast_z500_mslp_us_10.png
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I'm getting a feeling of an extremely warm second period in October from around the 6th-10th. We'll see, lots can and will change. WX/PT
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I'm going to guess based on what I see, maybe early October 50% chance then the stuck up pattern reloads for most of October and a complete break from this pattern in late October or early November. WX/PT
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Here's what the GFS is impressed with. And it makes some sense. The cut-off over the Ohio Valley sucks it right up along the coast. But it's a long ways away and could just as easily end up in the Gulf of Mexico. WX/PT https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2024091700/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_49.png
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Winds out of an easterly quadrant for virtually the entire month. Amazing. I still think any rain amounts in the NYC Metro would likely be on the lighter side this week. Next week maybe better. Temperatures continue above normal but not as much so. WX/PT
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I still have a hard time seeing much if any of the rain to our south getting in here during the mid week period. I think the dry high pressure ridge will win out with maybe somehow a few light showers working their way across our region (drier especially NYC and points north and east). I think it remains generally on the dry side through this week with continued above normal temperatures. The models continue to flip back and forth. I tend to dismiss the wetter runs. A chance of showers is reasonable in the forecast for Wednesday into Thursday. WX/PT
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The big low in the north Atlantic will locks in the high pressure ridge and in turn does not allow the significant rainfall to get any further north or northeast. The coastal low will heads out to sea from this point. WX/PT https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2024091500/gfs_z500_mslp_atl_21.png
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Watching a series of upper lows in the north Atlantic. They have a tendency to flatten the high pressure ridge in the east if they are far enough south. This in turn allows for a little more normally west to east progression of weather systems and also allows the moisture from low pressure to move northward then northeastward affecting the NYC Metro Region Tuesday night into Wednesday. Because of the strong high pressure ridge over us, the moisture and associated low pressure to the south can also be sheared apart if it tries to move to the northwest around the ridge or kicked out to sea. The European model is showing a full variety of these options from run to run. It seems now reasonable to forecast a chance of rain from Tuesday night into Wednesday night. The Euro then rebuilds the ridge to fill in the weakness that was created behind the exiting and dissipating low pressure. WX/PT https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2024091400/ecmwf_z500_mslp_atl_53.png
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