The_Doctor

What's the point of having a 60% hatched wind category if you're never going to use it? How do you only issue a Moderate risk at 20z when 20 minutes later you drop a PDS severe watch with double 95s for wind probs? Is the SPC just afraid of marking an event as "High" risk because that's some sacred territory that 8/10/20, 12/15/21, and now today somehow don't belong in (despite easily verifying the probability requirement)? IDK why this bothers me because it doesn't really matter, but jeez just make 60% hatch wind be Moderate already if that's actually the case.

18z GFS casually delivers the greatest snowstorm in SE Nebraska history at day 8-9. Including 2 ft in 6 hours on the clown Kuchera maps (hr 222), with 3.5+ ft totals.

Don't see that color on Radarscope too often...

Lol at that backward extension of the watch to accommodate the DBQ storm

13" rain incoming at ord

Just to add to the previous watch wind speed discussion, I believe a watch for the May 2009 super derecho had a 105 mph wind speed listed. Although that was a tornado watch IIRC. At an airport so I can't conveniently investigate further

They have quite the velo signature on radar right now.

Interesting, I always thought it was the other way around with the SPC consulting with the NWS office but ultimately having the final call. It makes more sense that the NWS office would cancel it

SPC has not been cancelling the watch in IN behind the line. They might be thinking the storms in S IL/MO will strengthen as they enter the western part of the watch area. Glancing at the vis satellite shows clearing behind this initial MCS.

Just south of Indy the storms were pretty meh, maybe 30-35 mph max gust.

I really just feel like we should be on Central time. Daylight savings time and time changes don't bother me, but it's ridiculous when the sun rises at 8:00 AM in the dead of winter and sets after 9:00 PM in summer. I feel that if everything was shifted backwards an hour all would be better. I lived in Illinois for a while as well, and the sunrise/sunset times seemed to make a lot more sense there, with the only issue being how early the sun would set in the winter.

A large enhanced did end up getting issued across northern Missouri and southern/western Illinois. These severe wind-producing MCSes are my favorite storms; unfortunately for me this one will turn southeast along the instability gradient long before it gets here. This particular system is actually fairly interesting on radar, with one severe line directly behind the other. The lines are separated by less than 100 miles in spots.

Derecho? A few more wind reports occurred east of Cleveland after the 12z cutoff. Not too shabby considering a lot of these areas had <=5% wind probabilities until the 01z outlook.

Joke right?

One of the odder looking probabilistic outlooks I've seen, with the sig area totally separate from the higher probs. This is the Day 2 outlook for tomorrow.