FallsLake

Well c'est la vie..... Our storm is gone. As happened many times this winter, once it got to the day 5 mark the models lose it. You can say the models are now better closer to events; or I think they've become worse in the medium range. A lesson (or rule) for next winter; storms have to be modeled less than day 5 before taken seriously.

RAH: Monday through Wednesday, low confidence as model spread continues. We will carry a good chance of showers late Monday into Tuesday. However the storm track and timing are still in debate, along with the strength. For now, a low pressure track from the TN valley east across SC or far southern NC is favored, with cold high pressure to the north acting as a block from a more northward track. Most likely the temperatures will remain fairly cool, except possibly in the SE zones (if the warm sector can advance into that region). QPF could be significant again (1+ inch), but too early to pin this down. Much more on this potential system in the coming days.

Yeah it's just fun tracking something. I wont lose sleep if/when this thing disappears.

Or to make more folks happy, expand the coverage.

Snow depth:

12z FV3 back to showing a big event. Has RDU with a foot (10:1). Do I believe it?....No, but it's interesting to track.

6z GFS has backed off some but still shows frozen precip over northeastern NC into SE VA. The FV3 has less but is showing more potential then previous runs. My take looking at the current models, we could see some change over to snow for north-central NC eastwards into the north-central coastal plain then up into SE VA. But I wouldn't expect much accumulations.

18z GFS still has the storm. We know it's got to be right, it has the Wake County split....

From RAH: The next wx system will come during the first half of next week. It`s an interesting system with models depicting a closed H5 low dropping SEWD from the Central Plains to across the Carolinas. Thermo profiles would suggest perhaps a late-season p-type concern across the Piedmont, but given that this system is so late in the forecast period, inevitably the details will change below now and then. Will continue to monitor model trends, and for now will show increasing PoPs during this time.

This would be nice...

The 12 GFS continues to show the storm, but the FV3 pushed the low through too quick which didn't allow the high to the north push down in time to change rain over to snow. But that's just details. Players are on the field; just don't know how good they are....

Yeah until this year, a storm showing at this range would really peak the interest. We've even created storm threads for day 7 storms. But this year, I'm not sure when to take storm threats seriously.

Just looked at the euro and it's showing something too. Time to reel us in one last time and then crush our dreams --

I love it. The models (6z FV3 and GFS) wants to give us the middle finger for one last time this season with a day 7 fantasy storm. 6z FV3:

The thing that hurt so much this year was the amount of fantasy storms at day 7; which none worked out (..except the Dec storm). In years past something showing at day 7 had a decent chance for at least somebody getting something.

I would love to see you guys score. I think you got a decent chance.

I thought you guys got ~1 with the December storm; then it got washed away.

Yeah we can hope. Nothing to lose. Precip would be developing right over us, which can be a good thing; but very hard to model.

NE parts of NE SC and SE NC just might see a surprise event. Even a dusting would be a win.

The 12z RGEM followed the NAM in showing a light event for NE SC into SE NC. 10:1 shows > 1" for areas just inland.

We do have the latest HRRR:

The one good thing about the predominant trough in the west, is the fact that they're getting lots of snow across most of the western states mountain ranges (^^as you guys are stating). This is where the western folks get most of their yearly water supply. So in short, look for good deals this upcoming year on vegetables, fruits, and nuts. **bad side is there could be a larger burn season coming up this fall with all the spring growth.

RAH gives us a little hope. It's all we got: The EC, GEM, and NAM all remain dry through Thursday. However, the latest 2 runs of the operational GFS, along with a majority of the GEFS members have trended wetter Monday night and into Tuesday; with an area of precip blossoming east of the mountains, in response to shortwave perturbations embedded in the broad cyclonic flow aloft and resultant weak spin up of a sfc low across SE US. Will keep forecast dry for now, but will closely monitor as temps aloft and at the sfc would be sufficiently cold enough to support some light snow(liquid equivalent ~.10") across the NC Piedmont. cP airmass in place will begin to moderate on Thursday as the parent high across the area begins to break down, under zonal flow aloft. Significant model differences arise by Friday and into the weekend, as a series of shortwave troughs with Pacific origins eject east across the CONUS. While it looks like the arrival of the deeper moisture will hold off until Friday or even Saturday, like precip could spread into the area as early as Thursday night/early Friday morning. Given antecedent cP airmass in place, favorable nocturnal timing of precip across the area Thursday night/Friday morning, could support a brief period of frozen or freezing precip at onset, before changing over to all rain.

The 6z GFS looks similar to the 0z for the Wednesday event. Maybe we can pull something out of the hat.

It's definitely not over. We've seen the models back off in the past just to come back as we get to the day 4 period.