FallsLake
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Everything posted by FallsLake
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As the east/ SE has been above normal, the NW into Canada has been cold/snowy. This is actually good (..at our expense), it builds up snow cover that can help build/maintain cold later in the year.
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So close, RDU down to 60 this morning. Maybe tonight. More likely on Sunday night but that would be Oct 1st when that occurred. So still a good chance that RDU doesn't see a below 60 night in September.
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Latest Euro is also on board for a big cool down next weekend. Still far out but gives us some hope.
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12z GFS has flipped from its earlier run and now shows a major cold front for the SE next weekend (8-9 days out). Do I believe it, not yet... Dew points for next weekend:
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Yeah the latest GFS shows no hope. There could be many areas that do not see lows in the 50s through the mid October. Usually we're tracking our first frost/freeze ~ mid October.
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Many of the analog years that have been floated around are CAD dominated; 2002-2003 is one of them (that was a fun year). And to be fair, I've seen a few analogs that were some of our worst years. But not as many. I think if we get our El Nino (..not strong and west) we'll be good. http://climate.ncsu.edu/climate/winter/database
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And the spiders. I've been running into webs every morning.
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12z GFS cooler for this weekend and early next week for NC northward. It shows lows in the 50s for northern NC into Va. Maybe I can open the windows for a few days.
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In this pattern we have to take what we can get. The latest 12z NAM has the CAD a little stronger for this upcoming Friday. **still it would be nice to get a "real" cold front to push through and give everybody on the board a break.
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The new south Florida!
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October is coming; and if the 6z GFS is right, we'll see a lot of 80s and 90s for highs. But the GFS has been flipping back and forth between a nice cool down and more of the same warmth. I'll be interested to see what the 12z brings.
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Sure hope so. It's got to break (this pattern) sometime.
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Hey guys here's some web maps my group put out over the weekend. Any GIS folks out there, please tell me of other map services if known. Look under Florence Support Maps and Apps: https://ncdot.maps.arcgis.com/home/index.html
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Been so busy with Florence, that I haven't been focused on the extended. Probably a good thing. The eastern ridge looks to continue it's dominance for at least the next 10 days. The GFS doesn't have a good cool down until the end of its run. We could be looking at the first part of October until ACs can be shut off.
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I would love to see that track. It loops it in a complete circle whereas on day 10 it's back on the SC coast. With cool air pushing southward it would then turn into a nor'easter and head up the coast. That would be some fun tracking..
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So there was a slight shift north on some of the 6z model runs. One (FV3-GFS) now has the 6" QPF line into south Wake County. Point is I don't think there will be a radical move north, but a couple more small shift north can put many big urban areas back under the flooding threat. Something to monitor.
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It then pushes inland moving NW past Greenville and over the mountains past NE Tenn. Mountains would get good rains with this path.
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Out to 108 and the 18z FV3-GFS is following the euro. Looks to be right off the coast at Charleston after a near hit at Wilmington.
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The HWRF would swamp much of NC with very heavy precip rates. The storm comes in near Wilmington and then slowly moves east/NE with heavy rain around the center and then to the north.
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Rain totals are not bad (compared to other model runs) for inland areas. 6z GFS at hr 174:
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I think it went right on through like Fran did. This probably would be a record for NC.
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Oh, and it takes 4 days to get through NC from the initial hit to when it leaves NC north of the Triad.
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Latest 6z GFS had another crazy option. It has the storm initially hit ~Ocracoke Island, dances around for some time, then slowly move SW down the NC coast, until it enters land ~ the NC/SC boarder. It then slowly moves NW, goes through the Triad area, and then starts moving NE through VA.
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Man, the HWRF would be bad for most of NC, southern VA, western NC/SC, and even into eastern Tenn. It just slowly moves east to west/SW through the state. Even at the end of its run (hour 126), the storm is sitting just south of Charlotte. Still raining...
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Yeah, it slowly moves west dropping lots and lots of rain over eastern and central NC.
