hstorm

For those who can access, the Euro 150k shows a big hit.

Temp isn't really rising today. My low this morning was 29 (after being at 30-31 most of the night) and we are only at 34 right now.

RGEM is slightly north too, at least with the overall precip field. 12k NAM has 1”+ snow up to around Fredericksburg.

6z NAM is way NW. 3k NAM is less aggressive but also significantly NW.

ICON gives Richmond ~10 inches. It's not that far from a hit.

The good news here is that a 400-mile north shift would still give us the 2.5" that Savannah gets on this run.

IAD report seems low. We ended up with somewhere between 9.5 and 10 and we are typically pretty close to IAD on accumulations. Would be surprised if they had 2” less than us.

As a Pats fan, game was almost as intense as the storm. 20” would be nice but I’ll take our 9+ inches of snow/sleet.

We have ticked down a bit further to 15.6. Assume any temp rise for those to the east should stop soon.

16 here in Great Falls. Temp has actually dropped ~2 degrees here in the past hour.

Just measured 7.5” actual depth on the ground. Likely means 8-8.5” in total accumulation.

Just measured 6” on the ground in Great Falls. Likely some compaction already from the sleet, so probably somewhere closer to 6.5” so far. Sleet is pouring down.

One thing that the HRRR captured well on yesterday’s runs was the slowing/wavering of the sleet line towards far Northern VA. That certainly happened here this morning. HRRR was too slow on timing (NAM was closer) but good on this aspect.

Wow. Dumping snow now.

Still mostly snow in Great Falls. Hard to call this a bust … we are certainly getting the rates we need with the pre-flip snow.