Sydney Claridge

Interesting enough SPC includes a significant hail risk today (4/19) for half of the DFW Metroplex, primarily Dallas and Collin counties eastwards.

Would definitely be interesting to see the severe storm potential start to move further north. So far, the Gulf Coast states look to remain prone to severe thunderstorms and tornadoes for the next couple of weeks. Given what happened in Mississippi on Easter (and with said areas still recovering), it would be nice to get the severe storm potential away from that area. But they have another significant risk for tornadoes tomorrow (also including Louisiana once again, so still relevant to this subforum), and the 22nd and 23rd are also looking like potential severe weather days in that same area once again. With all that warm water in the Gulf, it would not surprise me that whenever the severe storm potential marches north, that things could get intense with plentiful low-level moisture. As for the traditional Tornado Alley, this is a Dixie Alley pattern, but parts of Texas may get in on the action (I don't want to necessarily rule out the I-35 corridor or the Southern Plains of TX/OK completely, especially if the storm systems come in northwest of where they are modeled, but everything looks like it will be east of there). I'm just a little surprised that it has remained quite cold in the Midwest and Great Lakes regions, but they will probably get their turn for severe storms once this warm, humid air can move further north than Dixie.

Storm moving into Birmingham looks like more of a straight-line wind threat, at least for now. What might be interesting is if this storm has left behind an outflow boundary that the storms approaching from the SW could exploit. Overall storm mode continues to look really messy, however.

Correlation coefficient might be suggesting debris north of Holt as well.

Storm in the Tuscaloosa/Northport area seems to have that supercellular look to it. EDIT: just as I said that a severe thunderstorm warning comes out. Storm motion is towards Birmingham, although the orientation of the polygon is pointed more towards Hoover and the southern Birmingham metro area (possibly taking into account a right turn).

Definitely a couplet on that storm. May need a tornado warning soon.

Tuscaloosa reporting 72/70, so there is plenty of humidity around. While the circulation near Union is weakening, the situation could change quickly given other parameters.

Couplet on lead cell is moving towards Union, AL; second cell has a couplet moving towards Emelle, AL.

Rotation also ramping up north of Meridian, about to cross over into Alabama.

Surprised those storms from Meridian to Tuscaloosa are not stronger. Inflow should be somewhat unimpeded. Not that I would want them to be any stronger; I have relatives of my family that live in the Eutaw, AL area.

Baton Rouge seems to be on the back edge of the discussed activity. Storms out by Hammond look to be more of a concern.

Lead cell just a left turn and is now headed for Meridian, that's is why that tornado warning is oriented the way it is.

Tornado emergency wording taken off of the lead cell NE of Pachuta. Now just states "severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado." EDIT: Actually both cells are no longer tornado emergencies, but the warning for the second cell near Taylorsville says that there is a confirmed tornado.

Possible debris ball between Macon and Brooksville, MS.

Low-level lapse rates are better ahead of that line in southern Louisiana (now moving through the Lafayette/Baton Rouge areas). This might be one area to watch.

Those cells down by the Gulf Coast, currently moving over Lafayette, LA, also have my attention right now.

Looks like we might be seeing initiation there. If so, that would be very concerning, but it might not mature until it passes the Jackson area (but you never know).

Moderate risk remains intact for the 1630z outlook. Concerns about convection surging ahead of the surface-based instability precludes a high risk upgrade. MDT extension into TN is for a 45% hatched wind risk; the 15% hatched tornado risk stays south of the TN/AL border.

That line east of Shreveport may be encountering storm relative helicity of up to 700m^2/s^2 per SPC Mesoanalysis.

New tornado warning includes Leander and Cedar Park. This is very concerning now that highly-populated areas are in the path.

Uptick in precipitation cores over Parker, Tarrant, and Hood counties could be a problem for DFW if they intensify. All the precipitation in the area should be stabilizing things, but SPC Mesoanalysis still indicates plenty of CAPE in the region. Not thinking too much of it though. There may even be twin tornadoes south of Marble Falls. Two tight couplets are showing up on radar velocity.

Right turn in the storm approaching Round Mountain could be a problem for the northernmost suburbs of the Austin area (especially Leander and Georgetown) if it continues on this track.

Correlation coefficient suggests tornado on ground E of Eckert, TX.

That cell definitely seems to be falling apart. It is no longer severe-warned. Question is if less convection tonight means there will be less junk convection across the southeast during the day tomorrow. Though I guess that could depend on the forward motion of the “main round” to develop in the next few hours.

The supercell just north of Uvalde seems to have taken somewhat of a left turn, now aiming it towards the San Antonio metro area, provided that it holds together and remains on this track. The most intense part of the storm is probably about halfway between Del Rio and San Antonio now, though I would not expect the storm to impact the San Antonio area until after 12am (likely sometime after that).