Sydney Claridge

Tornado warning now in effect for northern Dallas County, including the Park Cities and Garland.

Looks to be a hook (possibly) trying to form on the radar over Southlake. That storm seems to be intensifying too. EDIT: new SPC MD seems to suggest that then environment is favorable for tornadoes, though fortunately these storms seem to be struggling to show more significant rotation: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2090.html

A hatched tornado risk area is now present on the new SPC outlook within most of the 10% area (in NE TX from just north of DFW, SE OK, and W AR). EDIT: and there is now a tornado warning west of La Grange, much further south along I-10.

Looks like storm initiation may be starting SW of DFW (around Stephenville) based on radar and satellite imagery.

Just keep in mind that West Yellowstone's climate is subarctic (by virtue of its elevation), so it will get colder than you are used to in the winter. At your longitude, you would have to get into far northern Ontario or Quebec before you found a subarctic climate, although West Yellowstone would still be (on average) warmer in the winter than those locations are. Though in terms of climatic extremes, West Yellowstone has recorded the coldest temperature of any populated community in the lower 48 states. The climate in somewhere like Rexburg, ID or Idaho Falls would probably be more manageable, though the surroundings are less scenic.

I had a tree uprooted in my west Fort Worth neighborhood.

Definitely noticed a few models potentially showing a tornado threat for southeastern Ohio (today's 09z RAP, the last few NAM3K runs), and perhaps into central Ohio (especially in the last few NAM runs) as well, that is if some isolated storms can get going. These models show some high EHI values in these areas (and the 12z NAM3K extends high EHI into western PA as well). GFS is much more bearish though. Would like to see some more model consistency, but over the last day or so the models suggesting a potential tornado threat do seem to have reduced the amount of forecasted VBV in the Upper Ohio Valley region.

Tonight's 0z NAM and ECMWF are trying to bring mid-60s dewpoints into Ohio for Sunday, though the NAM shows some VBV issues (I don't have access to ECMWF upper-level winds). SPC has a broad ENH risk from GA/AL all the way up to southern Ohio (just south of KCMH). The NAM and ECMWF bring this warm sector further north than the ENH risk, up to at least Mansfield or so (around the north end of the Slight risk or so), and ECMWF gets 60-degree dewpoints as far north as Cleveland. Would expect to see the ENH moved north (to include Dayton and especially Columbus) if NAM and/or ECMWF verify. SPC says damaging winds are the primary threat, though they predict tornadoes will be possible near and west of the Appalachians. I'm slightly skeptical with the VBV issues (and with the GFS being less aggressive into the OH/KY/WV area), but we'll see what happens. This would be with the same system responsible for tomorrow's severe in east Texas and LA/AR (and that is where the bulk of the tornado threat with this system will likely be). The 6z NAM run is a little less aggressive in the Ohio area I would say, with slightly lower dewpoints and lower temperatures, and less EHI present.

The GFS-based models (GFS and GFS-FV3) are placing the warm front with the Saturday system just south of DFW on the 0z runs. Those models do seem to have moved the front's location slightly further north with each of the last few runs. The 0z runs puts DFW in the upper-50s for dewpoints with mid-to-upper 60s dewpoints just to the south and SE. It will be interesting to see how far north the warm front can come, as well as what the NAM has to say about it as it comes into range.

Me too. GFS is showing a pattern suggestive of cold waves in the Northern and Central Plains (along with surging cold fronts) but I'm not counting on that to translate into the Southern Plains as I've always noticed a cold bias with the GFS in the longer ranges.

And we're down to a Slight Risk now. According to the reports so far the Moderate Risk seems like a bust, aside from the Columbus tornado. (there's not many severe reports in the former MDT zone)

Just wanted to pitch in and say that today's 0z NAM3K solution looks a bit ominous for W TN and N MS, with broken cells traversing across a fairly high-EHI environment. 0Z HRRR is even more ominous, showing isolated cells from south-central MS up into central IL (with dewpoints >= 60F even there), with particularly severe-looking cells ahead of the cold front (which itself has broken cells along it) from south-central MS into southernmost KY, though I'm aware that specific model can be somewhat overdone.

NE Texas is in the Day 6, so they might get involved it seems. Like you said, barring a westward shift, north-central Texas and DFW probably will not be involved. Seems like a potential western Dixie and mid-Mississippi/Lower Ohio valley event based on the SPC outlook thus far.

I was noticing that on the model runs as well. What are the probabilities that north-central and NE TX gets involved here? (though it's probably a bit early to say) Today's 12z and 18z GFS runs are at least hinting at the idea (though somewhat earlier in the day), but that is just two runs of the same model. The potential event is still over a week out so the models will definitely become more refined as it draws closer, and perhaps more questions can be answered then.

I cannot help but notice that the models are depicting a fairly active pattern over the next few weeks, with multiple systems off the Pacific coast (some fairly strong), and some staying fairly strong as they emerge onto the Plains. If we can get sufficient moisture return (the big "if" in February), perhaps we might be entering a favorable pattern for severe thunderstorms soon if the models verify.

And the slight risk is back into the DFW metro as well, and even now extends south of DFW for wind and hail. Highest tornado probabilities (5% within 25 miles) are in the northern section of the metro northwards to the Red River and over towards NE TX, SE OK, and central AR. It's also interesting to see the elevated thunderstorms in NW OK, where there is a severe thunderstorm warning in effect for an area where some of the surface temperatures are hovering near the freezing mark. Now if only that activity was in the warm sector...

I know it's still early, but I'm already starting to get a bit concerned for this year's severe weather season with the arctic outbreaks happening over the eastern US, especially if the whole pattern with western ridging and eastern troughing gets established; to my understanding, this pattern ruined the severe season many times in the middle of this decade. With drought expanding in the west there may be more concern for western ridging. That said, if a western ridge can be combined with a ridge over the East Coast and troughing in the central U.S. (as the aforementioned CPC outlook seems to suggest) then maybe we will get several storm systems that move from the southern Plains towards the Great Lakes region. To my (limited) understanding this would be better with La Niña conditions though if you wanted to bet on tornado outbreaks. I'm going to be a bit more optimistic here and guess first high risk on April 11th in the southern Plains, with 1200 tornadoes overall.

Agreed. Even just looking at the RAP used on the SPC Mesoanalysis site, that model placed the freezing line about three counties too far west. At least most of DFW seems to be above freezing (though just barely) now, though some places in Tarrant and Denton counties still seem to be at or just below the freezing mark.

Interesting note regarding the location of the freezing line. Some of the personal weather stations on Wundermap (accuracy is a concern though) are averaging around 32 in portions of southern Dallas County (and close to it in Irving and NW Dallas County), and even in the areas that based on radar data appear to be just plain rain in SE Tarrant are averaging around 32 as well. Here in west Fort Worth a light coating of ice has formed on my tree branches. It will be interesting to see how far west the freezing line shifts over the next few hours, and part of me wonders if it will not shift as far west as forecasted. Hopefully the freezing line shifts west out of DFW in the next couple of hours as forecasted, before there is an opportunity for ice accumulation to become a major issue.

I'm on the west side of Fort Worth and there is currently a light rain with temperatures just below freezing (31F), with most of Tarrant County (aside from the easternmost portions) also at or just below freezing. Paved surfaces seem wet and not icy at the present moment, although there does seem to be a little bit of ice on surfaces that are less likely to retain warmth (like leaves and the metal railing just outside my house). Concern for icing seems to be further west where precipitation has yet to develop (but will), as per SPC mesoscale discussion.

Should be interesting to watch, that's for sure. And in fact, this morning's 6z NAM run is showing a potential icing event from the Hill Country up towards DFW, with greater ice accumulations showing up around Llano and Gatesville (with the event ongoing at the end of the run, though it's too early to delineate where winter precipitation may accumulate at this time). But like you mentioned, the GFS and other global models are not picking up on anything.

I wonder what everyone is thinking about the severe weather potential tomorrow in Texas? Currently SPC has a slight risk in place for an area roughly bounded by Fort Worth to the NE, Killeen to the SE, and Abilene to the W. Multiple NAM and NAM3K runs are getting some pretty high EHI values into parts of the north-central Texas region, though SPC is calling the NAM overdone. Just waiting for what the 18z HRRR run has to say, though; that said, the 12z HRRR run does keep the surface-based instability south of the DFW Metroplex by about 2 counties or so.

Tornado warning now for Collin County, including highly populated areas of McKinney and Plano.

Seems a bit weaker on radar now, but there is a severe-warned storm just to the west on its heels. The storm near Celina also seems to be developing a hook with what appears to be some rotation on radar.

That storm only took like 20 minutes to go from a blip on the radar and then go severe... talk about explosive development. The atmosphere is indeed very unstable.