Sydney Claridge

70/40 tornado probabilities too. The watch does cover a large area (DFW all the way up to the OK/KS border), though.

I'm definitely keeping an eye on that area of showers currently over the DFW area (and more generally along and west of the I-35 corridor in north Texas), to see if any supercells try to go up within the next few hours.

If that tornado was on the ground that entire time, I suspect it would be one of the longest tornado tracks on record (if not the longest track) for the areas near/around DFW. While we are at the southern end of Tornado Alley, north-central Texas has actually had very few long-track (25+ miles) tornadoes in its record.

There's definitely a significant temperature/moisture boundary (warm front?) over DFW right now. Upper 70s and 80s with 70s dewpoints to the south of DFW at the moment, with 60s and low 70s with dewpoints in the 40s north of DFW. While hail and wind will be the biggest threat, I also want to be mindful of any possibilities for tornadoes when such a boundary is in place, as there is often localized enhancement of tornado parameters near/along these sort of boundaries.

This area needs to be watched very closely as it moves into Westerville and New Albany.

Not going to rule anything out, but it looks like that storm moving into Cincinnati seems to be getting cut off by outflow. There may be some spin-up potential around Lebanon, OH as well. There's also the storm moving towards the northern Columbus suburbs. Places like Plain City and Dublin will soon be in its path, and perhaps Westerville and New Albany down the line. On the other hand, SPC Mesoanalysis is showing a sudden drop-off in tornado ingredients around the Columbus metro, but I wouldn't count on the storm weakening before it impacts the Columbus metro, either. This storm is well-isolated from other storms, so there is definitely potential for concern. EDIT: rotation tightening between Mechanicsburg and Plain City.

Those training supercells lined up southeast of Indianapolis are reminding me of the storms that trained north of Oklahoma City yesterday, had those storms in Oklahoma not become outflow-dominant (of course the OK storms had a higher parameter space had they not become outflow-dominant, but still…).

It just escalated. Severe thunderstorm warning with a destructive damage threat tag now out for the Moore area, with 80 MPH wind gusts possible.

Me too. There's nothing too concerning on that storm around Gracemont and Binger just yet, but it wouldn't take much at all for that to change.

The debris ball has even stronger reflectivity now. My heart just sank upon seeing this.

The storm approaching Barnsdall, if it holds together, is on a track that would take it into (or at least close to) Bartlesville in around 30 minutes. Hopefully that line to the west will catch up to this supercell soon.

Thank goodness, because the other ingredients in place would allow for strong tornado activity if a supercell went up.

I don't think I've ever seen a VTP as high as 20 before. The ingredients in place over central and northern Oklahoma are absolutely insane.

Looks like there are now attempts at initiation south of I-40 now. This needs to be watched very closely, especially down the line as the storms near the OKC metro.