Torchageddon

Got a non-storm that just brought heavy rains, was put under svr warning for no reason as usual. Not even a clap of thud. Attempt #11 fail.

The weekend and Monday were cold and windy, mid-afternoon it was 15C and overcast. I'm sure I don't have to state how I feel about that one. Today was better high of 20C with lots of fluffy clouds. Today was the 15th anniversary of the historic Ontario tornado outbreak that had the highest number of tornadoes recorded in one day. One was close to me, the Durham F2 that claimed the life of 1. Most from SON recall the Vaughan tornado which is among the most filmed ON tornado of all time.

I put this into ChatGPT 4: "how many tornadoes occurred in Illinois during the month of July 2024?" Pathetic. These AI Chat LLMs suck for weather queries. The point is for me not to have to dig for these stats if its connected to the web!

I had a tornado warning issued at 11am this morning by EC from a suspicious cell with a bean shape over Clifford. This is the earliest tornado warning I've recalled for mby. Tornado warnings before noon in Ontario are very rare in general. At one point there were 3 tor warnings at once in SON. Mine was dropped within 8 mins and replaced with a svr t-storm warning that gave me some light showers which have been on and off every 30-60 mins today. I didn't even hear thunder! The cell in question fell apart rapidly. Some peaks of sun at times with more cells from the south ongoing.

We had the perfect summer weekend here with a very rare instance of blue skies with almost no clouds at all Sat/Sun!! On Sat there wasn't any clouds for over 100km around me on Satellite - can't say that happens much around here. Sat evening was among the best of all of 2024 with low wind, quiet, just the right amount of green. More smoke the last few weeks and increasing. About a week ago I finally got a t-storm but it was a dry one. I had 3mm during the early evening with some cracks but then at 10pm Tues there was a spicy cell that side-swiped me with good lightning and thunder. No precip at all from it.

Attempts #8,9 both failed for any storms since Monday mid-day - I correctly knew it would just be steady rain in place of garden boomer early this morning. Nice evening last night and a repeat of yesterday for the first half of today. 5mm of rain. This very active storm pattern giving me not even a clap of thunder for weeks is an exceptional blowout. The Weather Network site has finally finished off any creative touch they once had and forced the switch to their mobile layout on PC unifying it this afternoon . Lame how they pretended to have a new beta for desktop users just to save some more for their dying suncreen-promoting platform. Very plain, drab, terrible layout somehow the stinkiest of all time. 7 and 14 day forecast layouts are abysmal! Maybe I can ditch my bad habit of checking since the accuracy is so damn awful anyways. There are a few pros like having a better radar static image on the main condition page so I don't have to load the bloated interactive page for it. Its now come full circle back to what it was when the site first launched just plain info with minimal tinsel.

Last week my attempts at getting a storm both failed, then yesterday the MCS formed to my east in the afternoon - which I was happy about since I don't need the rain since Weds 60mm deluge. That was attempt #8 fail since early May. I had high pops too for Sunday and then evening's chances removed, followed by not a drop all night where I had 40% pops. Now I have same for later this morning for a few hours then all overnight Tues chances of "strong storm" which translates to "chance of rainshower". It was a warm overnight 21C roughly. Very comfy humid wx. Other than Weds its been a wonderful wx streak!!

Yesterday it was suppose to storm or have a strong storm during parts of Sat and instead I got a rain shower around 4. Just some light precip in the region as a svr t-storm watch was issued! Best part was 100 km/h winds were indicated in my watch lol. I don't even think there was any storm in SON - the watch was quickly dropped around 5-6pm. Storm Attempt #5 fail! Today was mainly awful with mid-fall temps (13C with chill) and lake effect mist showers first half. The worst June day maybe since 2015. By evening it cleared up. Very windy too like the past few months have been.

I was thinking last night how I'm grateful I am that we don't have all that smoke blotting out the sun and stinking up May/June. My forecast failed again today as rain at times moderate was expected mid-day and some into early evening - got some drops in late aft but really nothing like 5-10mm it didn't even register as trace. The skies looked dark at some points. Very windy again. Weds some light sprinkles now in there - me no likely I'm tired already of all the cloudiness. 7 Day lowered all my highs by quite a bit .

Yesterday had perfect wx, one of about 12 days you'd get during the warmer months. It was 24C humidex of 27 with blue skies, just the right breeze, and even some cumulus off in the distance for decoration. Made sure I got a lot of that sun as today is overcast and windy, rain delayed and reduced. This windy June thing is still going.

My county was put under a tornado warning Sat evening, some cell off Huron had rotation but was elevated so this large country was blanketed once again even though I'm 25 miles at least from the storm moving ENE... So how did the heatwave end storm wise here? With no thunder and just steady on and off rains! Fail #4!

As the heatwave winds down (it was a great one here), my temps have been comfy with even some hints of a cool breeze the other early evening, however the cloudiness is getting too pervasive again. Its fairly dark this morning, brightening up some in the last hour. Stormy day forecast with increasing rain chances by evening. I expect nothing storm-wise but underhyped = watch out!

My low was 24C overnight so no dice on the legend of 25C like in July 2011. Yesterday I got at least to 34C maybe 35 as my ws had 39C at one point and it runs 4C too hot during mid-afternoon. Its been very cloudy so far today.

On Sun night I had 30% pops for showers, my hourlies had nothing despite a MCS sagging slowly south from the bruce penn. - this PMX engine not being able to clearly assimilate this is yet another embarrassment in a long list of such. I could see the edge of the storm for hours with flickers of lightning within the shield. Then after midnight (a theme recently) I got a quick 2mm of downpour and more cracks of thunder. Rain was falling from the east.

Steamy overnight low of 23C, felt hot at 8am just walking with the heat of the sun already cooking. Im at 30C/86F again already at 10am, humidex of 38! High back to 34C/43. My coming overnight low now shows the once a decade (or rarer) 25C with a chance of storms! That alone would put this heatwave in high regard. Edit: Bumped my high to 35C now since TWN shows 32C 11:20am.

It did get warmer at 4pm so I didn't bust low, probably 33C humidex of 40 at least. What is outstanding is how warm this evening is even on my hottest summer nights. The hot air is continuing to foment leading to a 8:30pm reading of still 30C!! Rare. Seeing new insects out too.

My high was lowered today to 33C, I don't trust my station nor the obs for Hanover so I split and estimate I'm at 31C currently. This morning was great, still windy as usual. Places south like K-W really aren't that hot as a MCS came through at noon so til 230pm they were still at 24C!! Couldn't believe that. This is lame.

2nd day of perfect wx here, its been abnormally windy too. Blue skies the whole weekend! Its the stuff I wish I could lock in 365 days a year, with the longest daylight.

My TWN point for tomorrow still has 95F/36C as the hottest day, however what stood out on this cycle was for this week there are 5 days of chance of strong storms - maybe among the highest number generated here but def a dream pattern. The other is my low doesn't drop below 19C for the next 7 days with 5 being above 20C!

This may be one of the most incredible heatwaves modeled for my locale for intensity and duration! The 00z Euro run was a saver, jaw-dropping mega death ridge with a 600dm over NYC. There may be only one other run I've seen that had 594+ over me for similar length of time which was a crack GFS run in Aug 2016 I think. My 7 Day: Never seen 93F/34C forecast 4 days in a row before.

Well that big severe event for me tonight ended up giving me less than .25mm of rain, during the supposed height of the storm the skies brightened up and what wetness from the drops is evaporating!! The way the squall line evolved is a bit of a novelty as I was right at the bottom of the unzipping but it stopped and now I'm getting nothing! lol I was put under a svr warning and minutes later the sun comes out - love this storm season.

I just found out about the extreme heat wave for my locale this aft, I'll file my 7 day under "I'll believe it when I experience it" : Tantalizing!!

One of the best things I've seen modeled in 2024, epic heat on the way for the NE!

TWN really hitting hard with the severe for my region, I did get sun at noon and then starting at 3pm so I may have the juice to fuel something real this time. This will be attempt 2. Decent storms over Tobermory and north of Barrie so far.

Not good, when I saw TWN summer forecast showing a hot, above normal summer I grimaced as they have been wrong nine out of ten times with the summer seasonal one! Locally its been opposite if near normal wasn't shown. Atrocious conditions for days in SON, this shit is exactly what I fear especially in June. Overcast for days except some dawns and dusks the sun peeks out for a few moments - 13C for a high with windchills and rain showers. Thurs though was unexpectedly a good day. Feels like fall, heat has been on since early Sun. Feel the dryness despite the showers. The barfball of June 2015 made its way here!