MIstorm97

Not gonna have confidence till the flakes are done falling. In the bullseye right now, but that south trend may not be done EPS mean and control:

We are the king of 6-10” snowfalls after all. Heck there’s been multiple 9-11” ones as of late. Would be nice to break the 12” hump once again

Seasonal trends die hard, but it plays into my benefit.

That NAM run is a thing of beauty. Still not on the hype train, but if trends continue today...The slowing of the main vort definitely allows for better phasing. There would be a legit period of snow and gusty winds in SEMI should a NAM-type solution verify. It would be something to get three 6"+ storms in a warm winter like this. DTX also mentions the possibility of some "rather impressive snow showers" on Thursday with the combination of wraparound moisture, lake effect activity, and the strong CAA. The ceiling for this one is pretty high if the phasing comes together well. Not sure we'll hit that, but feeling better with a decent hit.

Taking this to the bank

Detroit is going to steal this once again

Told Stebo this elsewhere, but a 6" storm would put me at 20" for the month imby. Just think if one of the earlier systems this month phased well. It would've been a really good month. Another 6"+ storm would also push my seasonal total to at least 44.5". Euro is definitely coming in south this run...

You still have all the random Iowa tornado days to look forward to

EPS trended a little better for the Chicago area

Sure do^ CHI-DET will reel this one in

Reading the DTX AFD this morning, they’ve tossed the GFS solutions. Can’t argue against that really, poor skill scores and recent performance has been “ GFS and its ensemble on the other hand appear to be struggling right off the bat with the east Pacific energy, rendering it an unusable outlier in the other direction - thus the preference for a CMC/ECMWF consensus at this time.” Feel cautiously optimistic for this storm.

Don’t make me bring my alter ego out

I don’t know what sacrifices I have to commit or how many souls I have to sell, but I’ll do it to get that UKMET run to happen. Legit blizzard in Detroit. Too bad it’s not going to happen.

This is a pretty decent signal. Factoring in ratios, that’s a nice mean this far out. Definitely a fair amount of big dogs

10:1 at 138hrs is widespread 9-11 for Chicago. You know the kuchera maps are going to be hype when they're available. EDIT: weenie fuel

I'm doing even better than DTW , I just want to see some deep snowpack again. That's what has been missing downstate this winter.

Get your barbecues ready, get your propane tanks ready, get your toasts ready, get your juice ready, get your water ready, get your weather radios ready. Frankie^ I do hope this ends up being a decent storm for the Chicago-Detroit area. Need one with this winter.

I think I need to head up into the UP. Hit up Tahquamenon, Pictured Rocks lakeshore, some falls near Munising, maybe a lighthouse or two, and more. That snowpack is too good, considering there’s been none downstate.

Hey that’s what I’ve been saying in the discord. Lock it in. rare alek optimism, gonna be a shame when it’s a DAB

It’s the running theme this month so why not

...then we exit Feb and move on to eternal winter***

Gonna be either an amped rainer or sheared out 1-3 incher. Story of the winter

michigan lol there hasn’t been an EF3+ tornado since 2012 and EF4+ since 1977. Bad climo stanks