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DDweatherman

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Everything posted by DDweatherman

  1. DDweatherman
    Just like HighRisk reminded us that the short term US models do know thermals, do need we to remind you the Euro’s resolution is better than that of all models outside the 3k NAM?
  2. DDweatherman
    Especially important when the thermal profile is determined by rate dependencies…everything in a WAA thump with advancing ML warm intrusion.
  3. DDweatherman
    I agree it’s had value before, but that doesn’t diminish the horrible accuracy of the NCEP short term model suite. The blanket NAM sucks might be silly, but it’s also the anomaly on precipitation amounts vs the other suites. There’s a reason they’re all being decommissioned, and SOME of them don’t even make it to commissioning at all.
  4. DDweatherman
    Hope you taking the Nam over the euro is as dumb as it SHOULD be.
  5. DDweatherman
    Happens every run, never learn.. it was better earlier, then it got past its useful range of 12 hours out.
  6. DDweatherman
    Eh the r/s line is a fair bit south out in the TN valley and so is the overall precip shield.
  7. DDweatherman
    Anyone in Nashville have accumulations to report? Looks like it’s been snowing nicely there for a while.
  8. DDweatherman
    Good thing it starts in 15 hours, that does help.
  9. DDweatherman
    That’s definitely sleet unfortunately.
  10. DDweatherman
    All for Boston to laugh at us when they pick up 20” in this…fitting end to yet another disaster for us. Just hope it thumps, and when it doesn’t we can sail off into the sunset.
  11. DDweatherman
    Just need to root for the best model in the world and its AI companion. I guess if we’re down to the end here, it’s a good teammate to have.
  12. DDweatherman
    Closer to hour 30, even worse. It’s QPF inconsistency is volatile even when we’re tracking inside hour 12.
  13. DDweatherman
    If 13z went out as far, it would be different. The US mesoscale sweet is literal trash outside of 25%-40% its range. (HRRR hr 12, Nam/3k hr 36, rap and RRFS hour 0)
  14. DDweatherman
    Wxmodels page doesn’t have kuchie like pivotal for icon, 10:1
  15. DDweatherman
    6z RRFS map
  16. DDweatherman
  17. DDweatherman
    Basically, Euro folds to the GFS then the GFS folds to what the Euro or the warmer models were. Lost 1-2 inches in most places from 0z-6z gfs; 6” line moved NW. Lost 5” IMBY.
  18. DDweatherman
    The 6z suite quite frankly was a disaster for the sub forum. RRFS was its worst run yet. GFS was warmer, drier, and NW. Don’t want to give off panic, but I don’t like these trends after the best euro run yet.
  19. DDweatherman
    The 6z RRFS and ICON were not very good runs for the region.
  20. DDweatherman
    Why not just do it Sunday at 2pm? I do think that nowcast does bode well for us, less ML warm tongues out there.
  21. DDweatherman
    The model war will definitely continue into the final day, willing to bet.
  22. DDweatherman
    Even if these models are right, it’s such a bad idea to use them in their extended range. The HRRR is wrong often at hour 6 much less post hr 18.
  23. DDweatherman
    Down to 18 degrees here!
  24. DDweatherman
    That’s 18z again, but regardless they’re very close.
  25. DDweatherman
    Let’s get crushed by the GFS and let it be the beacon of consistency/improvement we like/need.
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