DDweatherman
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Everything posted by DDweatherman
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Why waste our time sharing what looks better when the outcome keeps ending up worse. Such bullshit how it ends up looking at the frames leading in
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Doesn’t sound awful to me
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Well, if @Scraff is here to start it now, he can. If not we’ll have to run euro through this thread
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Let’s start it now, who wants the honors? Try and turn this bitch around
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This is honestly what we’re likely gonna need to happen to salvage this thing
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Thanks for dropping in and you’re right, this storm hasn’t shown its full hand yet. Something will pop up we’re not looking at 1 for 1 on the current model progs. I love Mike Ross from suits too
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Okay now we’re exaggerating a little bit. There were a few “scare runs” south and nyc wasn’t in the goods until late in the game.
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Those types of runs during big dog tracking and then rejoicing during the first flakes when radar looks sick or when the big rates start are my 3 favorites
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Anyone remember the original PSUhoffman storm? So much fun when the changeover brought insane rates and thundersnow out the ass
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This is accurate. Westminster didn’t get 6” to my knowledge.
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Models so a great job at identifying threats at long leads, that’s their key area of improvement. Close in we still have our struggles with difficult set ups
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Believe it or not, I kinda think so too. Like PSU said, I could see a miller b type solution popping up this aftn/tonight. Really unusual h5 evolution
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But you’re in Richmond, so you might have been lying.
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It’s a 3 day weekend squid, we might as well keep looking and see if we can develop an alternative path to victory. I’ll be here with ya
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Whoever gets .5” QPF could definitely score 8-10 in this one. If you’re in .25” you might get better than 10-1 but subsidence plays a factor on the edges and worse snow growth as well.
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Yeah and our victory path to 6”+ may come via the SS wave itself.
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I think we just need to start looking at the confluence and maybe seeing if the s/s wave can climb a bit more with strong WAA precip. In that event, separation of the streams isn’t the focus
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I try to spend some split time in there for obs during the storms and a little bit during tracking. This is just a much busier forum and a more consolidated geography. Yes, the climo for me is not all that dissimilar to state college (normally at least) compared to say Arlington or Annapolis. But this is where my online weather love kicked off 15+ years ago.
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This is where we have a chance to still score a warning level event. Ratios will be good and whoever is in the juice will have little to no problem producing dendrites thanks to solid fgen from a good vort & moisture transport from a s/s gulf interaction.
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Note to readers. This isn’t that bad verbatim. I’m more concerned what the h5 look upstairs is headed towards vs what the run actually showed for us.
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Was worried about this a few days ago, extremely fragile set up and easy to fail. We haven’t done well historically in Niña’s with big amplified phase events. That plus the seasonal trend of deamplificafion of shortwaves made this an uphill battle to hold onto the big solutions at d5
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@NorthArlington101 is almost always associated with bad news. I vote we keep him out of the thread for a bit and try to change the vibes. Sorry NA, nothing personal bud.
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I think at this point, it’s simple what we want, the Nam type solution where WAA precip comes in north and hot thanks to weaker confluence and the SS vort can climb a bit
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The gfs isn’t making friends this run
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I thought you’d start after your ex wife. Gfs is out to 42, little bit of positive change out west early, but unchanged for the most part.
