I think at a high level we just have to know our backyard's climo. Everything is relative to that. It does explain why someone whos just around or north of Baltimore like a few folks here have been in an extended rut while south, east, and northwest of them has done a fair bit better. The 6" snowstorm drought for some in here is very extensive, while your area has 2 of those this season. It being an anomalous set of outcomes in the bigger picture makes recency theory rear its ugly head.