Not a criticism, genuine question. Would a met reading and doing pbp have been able to see things there and say “well h5 is displaced west of 18z kinda nicely now however XXX happens negating those positive developments”
Not looking at the runs, but it’s evident everything being west now isn’t everything for willing it closer. The line to be drawn on the coastal obviously has everything to do with tilt of the trough regardless of the location&base.
Yet again, I love how the wide swath is slowly moving closer to the sub. There’s a likelihood the wave itself may not be quite as deep/as far south, even if we get the tilt we want. That would put us all square in the meat and potatoes.
I can tell you with the trough neg where it is and the lobe with the tpv more disconnected…it sure should. I’d have to check where the 850 low is though.