DDweatherman

I don't think so good sir, GFS had about .5-1" for some I think? AI has been baiting us since yesterday back and forth. That was one of its more aggressive runs though.

Obligatory post for obs purposes to say its a bright & sunny 25 degrees this morning, still about 3-4" snowcover in the yard It is amazing up there, congratulations on the business move and the success. My wife would never let us move from somewhere not far from here, but I've been toying with where I'd want that second place to be. It was FL before, and to be honest, these winters have made me care less and less about snow thanks to the repeated screw jobs... but we're all weenies at heart. The other place I'd consider is out near Denver in the northwest hills - Black Hawk or somewhere at some higher elevation where snow is more frequent but there are plenty of sunny days and its 20 degrees warmer 2 days after snow.

Jealous, I've chased LES events there and its a wonderland... should be fun. Wonder how they statistically do in ninos up there?

That’s the same way I feel, it’s absolute bullshit. Especially up here in the pretty far N/W burbs, where that storm can absolutely drop 18” if we don’t have bad trends the last 24-36 hours to penetrate the primary so much more north and a razor thin ass warm nose at 925…

Well, the problem is Will is an ass and posted an hr270 24hr snow map so that’s not for this weekend…

It has been warm 2 of the last 3 trips out there. Was enjoying 60 degree afternoons last week, sure I love snow, but that was a weird place to get relief from our subzero wind chill days.

Yep, was just there last week. I go about once a month for work to Denver/that area. The burbs aren't cheap these days.

Sorry to anyone who saw the increase of pages since about 6pm and said WOAH what happened only to see nothing did on the models…just debate club.

I’m hoping to hear about some 20” numbers down that way, tons of drifts I assume to go with it.

Absolutely does, except his map this time isn’t even the euro lol. Wish he was right…but he’s not

Does SV have the AI too? Didn't realize since we usually see the pretty maps.

A lot easier and less misleading.

I’m not out, but this one is on life support for us.

There is the right chance for a backside phase.

How about 18z?

It’s a bit confusing too. Kicker is somewhat there, but not enough in my eyes to usher things out to sea that way given the h5 leading in. It’s indeed more positive and slightly less sharp on those frames.

Interesting indeed. I’m looking for the hint, and through that frame I’m having a harder time finding it. Dropping in further west and ridge is pumped a bit higher in the rockies/PNW. Heights slightest bit lower in east but shouldn’t hurt it as badly at that hour. Must show up more in the next frame or two.

I didn’t look at any h5 to say one way or another, just if something woulda got picked up. Seems like the biggest factor as I said in another comment is basing this off the tilt of the closed UL. Even if this originates a bit west of the prior runs, the real improvement needs to come in the orientation of things with that.

The tilt is arguably more important than location, especially with the origin of this.

Not a criticism, genuine question. Would a met reading and doing pbp have been able to see things there and say “well h5 is displaced west of 18z kinda nicely now however XXX happens negating those positive developments”

Not looking at the runs, but it’s evident everything being west now isn’t everything for willing it closer. The line to be drawn on the coastal obviously has everything to do with tilt of the trough regardless of the location&base.

Now we’re starting to see where the complexity of this could wreak havoc on modeling.

It’s there but it’s not that close, weird evolution of the low. Interesting to track.

Ggem should be an improvement over 12z by the looks of things through h72

Yep, even near Asheville to Raleigh would be great. Not a ton of mechanism to yank it poleward per the gfs.