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DDweatherman

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Everything posted by DDweatherman

  1. DDweatherman
    I guess I woulda been better 5 miles west of here on the other side of blue ridge summit? Haha
  2. DDweatherman
    Great spot indeed, similar zone to my yard. I had us basically at the border of 7-11 & 9-13, so our calls line up well. Definitely has some boom potential if we get the QPF outputs of the 18z suite.
  3. DDweatherman
    Don't you dare talk that dirty talk to me friend Where did you decide on setting up?
  4. DDweatherman
    Huge DGZ for us.
  5. DDweatherman
    Having map issues at the moment, so I'll give point forecast and ranges, I feel there will be a tight gradient on this one and the mix line will push north up through DC relatively quick but not all the way to PA with that much vigor. DC: 4-6" (closer to 6 in NW DC) Annapolis: 4-6" Baltimore: 6-8" Frederick: 7-10" Westminster: 7-10" Bel Air: 7-10" Winchester: 7-10" Hagerstown: 9-13" (right on the border of 7-10/9-13) York: 9-13" Gettysburg: 9-13"
  6. DDweatherman
    It got warmer the last 2 runs vs earlier, like it always does once it gets under 12 hours. It ALWAYS looks good at hr 18
  7. DDweatherman
    Did I miss your forecast map/call?
  8. DDweatherman
    Looks dry Thanks PSU
  9. DDweatherman
    I wish I knew why that saved as the smallest map of all time.
  10. DDweatherman
    Making a final call map, does anyone have a blank map for me to use over MD, PA, VA? I don't have the same archived map DB i used to
  11. DDweatherman
    14 degrees here at the moment. Don’t hate these temperatures.
  12. DDweatherman
    Models all on board minus the Nam, let’s cave for shits and giggles at 0z for poetic justice.
  13. DDweatherman
    Even the icon improved. AIFS has been strong for us during this too. Some of the mesos beefed up this afternoon. Nams need a 0z cave.
  14. DDweatherman
    Why is the euro doubling down on being basically the snowiest model for us? Gfs and UKMET were aggressive on 18z too.
  15. DDweatherman
    I gotta go back and check but that might be better than 12z for some? Definitely is juicy around our yards.
  16. DDweatherman
    Gfs was actually colder. N/W crew gets taken to the impound lot.
  17. DDweatherman
    I thought the fv3 was the next gen gfs? And I had heard here it wasn’t going to make it to the big game for a while still if it did
  18. DDweatherman
    that actually made me laugh out loud. Serious question for a sec, why did the FV3 GFS replacement never game big time? on this storm, it has been consistently colder and snowier for most than the other suites, but not all that different than the OP GFS. Does it have a published cold bias that just can’t be corrected?
  19. DDweatherman
    Just like HighRisk reminded us that the short term US models do know thermals, do need we to remind you the Euro’s resolution is better than that of all models outside the 3k NAM?
  20. DDweatherman
    Especially important when the thermal profile is determined by rate dependencies…everything in a WAA thump with advancing ML warm intrusion.
  21. DDweatherman
    I agree it’s had value before, but that doesn’t diminish the horrible accuracy of the NCEP short term model suite. The blanket NAM sucks might be silly, but it’s also the anomaly on precipitation amounts vs the other suites. There’s a reason they’re all being decommissioned, and SOME of them don’t even make it to commissioning at all.
  22. DDweatherman
    Hope you taking the Nam over the euro is as dumb as it SHOULD be.
  23. DDweatherman
    Happens every run, never learn.. it was better earlier, then it got past its useful range of 12 hours out.
  24. DDweatherman
    Eh the r/s line is a fair bit south out in the TN valley and so is the overall precip shield.
  25. DDweatherman
    Anyone in Nashville have accumulations to report? Looks like it’s been snowing nicely there for a while.
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