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DDweatherman

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Everything posted by DDweatherman

  1. DDweatherman
    If the Canadian solution occurs but we take into account your trend prediction, we’ll be getting double digits
  2. DDweatherman
    The dynamics of this one will definitely make the Meso's more valuable than globals as we get closer in. Not surprised the GFS doesn't have the same level of outcome on this evolution that the NAM & RGEM do.
  3. DDweatherman
    I haven't even looked at the GFS surface panels but looking at h5 thru 42 I'd suspect it will be a decent run. More amped s/s wave and some early interaction with the N/S
  4. DDweatherman
    ICON was its best run yet for us, QPF continues to increase. Slightest bit slower evolution as well.
  5. DDweatherman
    Do the prev run trend for the RGEM, improving nicely and quickly increasing QPF with each run.
  6. DDweatherman
    I won't forget about you again Mappy! I would tend to agree. 12z has been a good suite thus far.
  7. DDweatherman
    RGEM is a mauling for just about everyone CAPE N/W to FDK.
  8. DDweatherman
    Well other than the 12k NAM @ 6z, the rest of the suite came in more amped and more NW overall. The RGEM and Euro both showed nice moves.
  9. DDweatherman
    CMC doesn’t look too bad though
  10. DDweatherman
    It’s one suite Ji. Still a lot of reason to believe this comes N for us. The models moved hundreds of miles in 6 hours. Let’s see the next 2 cycles to really get an idea.
  11. DDweatherman
    Well, about all the 0z’s took a step back with amplification of the SS wave. That being said, tomorrow will likely provide a lot of clarity for us in the day before the “event.”
  12. DDweatherman
    Such minor features are going to have play on this up til the very last moment. You’d assume tomorrow during the day we’d get clarity being under 36 hours from game time...
  13. DDweatherman
    Agreed, but the evolution is quite a bit different for it being so close in the near term. One model is going to be right vs the other here.
  14. DDweatherman
    Can’t say I’d be surprised if this didn’t snap back SE tonight before a creep north into game time. Those were big moves NW which could have overcompensated initially. Yes the flow looks to allow it to come N (provided the fast flow like RGEM has doesn’t verify), but those were big moves over the course of 6-12 hours.
  15. DDweatherman
    Uh yeah that would explain the 2.5"/hr rates modeled at h60. There's going to be some great fgen/dynamics in this wave. Amp it up a bit more and folks will really be surprised by what's shown.
  16. DDweatherman
    Then we can really cash in over here being the favored spots aside, I like where we are atm. Curious to see if the ICON continues the rock solid consistency.
  17. DDweatherman
    I'll really be looking for some of the things the NAM did on that run upstairs on the rest of the 00z suite. The reality is though verbatim the run was a bit S for the 95 folks in the corridor, it was awfully close to being an even bigger run than what 18z showed. It is one of those setups where you can blow up a quick phase that drops double digit amounts and big time rates in places. Basically ninja'd by @MillvilleWx
  18. DDweatherman
    There's not really any confluence or block in the UL to make me believe it would suppress off the coast with any sort of amplification. It's easy to see where some of the more extreme ensemble members are coming from when you look at the ingredients upstairs and if everything came together.
  19. DDweatherman
    Interesting that we are starting to see interaction between the N/S & S/S with this. The ceiling is/was relatively modest considering the fast moving nature of the storm, but to bump my last post and to allude to what PSU said, this could raise the ceiling if we see another run with amplification of the s/s wave.
  20. DDweatherman
    Agreed with what PSU said, there were some improvements upstairs. If the S/W decides she wants to amplify more, this could move a bit slower and really blow up off the coast for us.
  21. DDweatherman
    They may not be that cold, but they are aren't that warm. It's only 34 a couple hundred miles SE.
  22. DDweatherman
    Wow what a run of the NAM, it's doubling down from last run I see. It hasn't performed that poorly as of late...
  23. DDweatherman
    I would say based off experience that's definitely not the case. Right in between there somewhere.
  24. DDweatherman
    Thank you! @HighStakes @losetoa6 @psuhoffman I mean we take?
  25. DDweatherman
    No no, for tonight into tomorrow. Which belongs in the disc obs thread I guess, but no one is talking about it there.
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