DDweatherman

Agreed, the ICON is pretty ideal and the 6z GFS would do. ICON was a great run just a few minutes ago, but can the GFS follow suit. Definitely 2 ways to fail, Miller B screw job or RGEMesque de-amped progressive system.

Textbook for a N/S system and that tilt at our lat.

The ICON might be the new high water mark for this storm thus far on that 12z run. Waiting for the accumulated precip/corresponding snow maps to update. Pretty textbook warning+ level event 81 to 95 and up the coast. Great low track

My biggest concern with this storm for sure, northern stream driven system in a Nina.

Saw that! I think more people need to be talking about the natural disaster thats basically unfolded on I 95 from DC to Fredericksburg. Some people have now been stranded 20 straight hours and not moved. Cars abandoned, disabled vehicles everywhere, people trying to conserve gas in 20 degree temperatures. 50 miles of the highway closed in both directions, with the northbound side making no progress. Road completely refroze and turned to a sheet of ice. Its commutageddon all over but maybe worse in some cases.

He's not wrong, its better. GFS was technically south last run, but more or less was a non-event.

I personally just don't the progressive trends for Friday's event, would love to see a slightly more dug in s/w that moves to the coast slightly south of where it has. Like the idea of snow being pretty widespread across guidance, but we've seen the miller B history in the past.

Lighter amounts on both vs 12z, but overall solid support for an area wide advisory level event. 18z RGEM and GEFS looked good too.

I am a bit concerned about this storm de-amping down to very little, but the Euro ensembles are still pretty decent overall on 12z for the threat. More N/S this time than the S/S of today's event, so we'll see.

The GFS says pretty much nothing for late week, Euro this time the one with snow. Should note the GFS has more support in all honesty (ICON, UKMET)

There are literally people walking on 495 and it looks like a plow never touched parts of the road in hours.

RGEM looked primed at 84 as well for the late week potential.

@psuhoffman realizing I replied all to the zoom from earlier. Agreed on that northern cutoff, the temps are just way warmer than we’d expect for this type of gradient.

It is similar to 6z but upstairs is a hair better again. Not a bad spot to be in considering what we’ve seen the last few runs of both the GFS/Euro and the “trends” that have consistently pushed the goods further and further NW. Temp profiles are nice too.

It’s really not terribly different over Baltimore county. Mappyland gets about 7” on Kuchera maps, similar to last run. Synoptic evolution and h5 says this could still end up more classic climo by the post storm analysis

The one above is the ICON, but yeah no NAM watching. Problem with the icon even though it doesn’t carry much weight is that it has a bit of that northern stream interaction/interference we were getting rid of hence the nice improvements last night/overnight. Euro at 6z might have the best h5 look overall, and you saw what the outcome was there.

I have to agree with you about letting the chips fall. Coming from someone who moved from Baltimore to a more climo favored area like Westminster, and lived there for three years, I can honestly say I was never able to enjoy the fruits of my labor. Last winter it benefited me slightly to live there, But it was never anything drastic. There was the storm last year where Westminster got about 7 inches and Thurmont/Carroll Valley got 16 to 18. The cities had 3-4, but it was never the coastal runner that brought 4-6&mix in Baltimore and 12-15 in the NW burbs. Well here I am now living in Carroll Valley as of October, waiting to see if I can maximize another decent climo location.

Yeah usually we just get the opposite of what we need at gametime these past few years.

One would have to think though that this couldn't trend N/W all the way to gametime. Models like HRRR at its latest run have pushed back S/E a bit. What I've been keying on all along for trend watching is the h5 presentation. A lot better than it was, but even on the 6z GFS you could see a little more press & influence from the presence of the N/S. If that area were to separate further and stay flat to the north, this would continue to press and allow negative tilt on our S/S wave.

Weird that the Euro doesn't know anything about this souther trend you're speaking of. We'll have to see if the RGEM or ICON do here shortly.

Yeah that would be terrible to see CAPE. Have we ever had the 18z euro since it’s inception make a big move from the 12z run?

Watching the run come out, I knew when the 24&30 hour frames at h5 showed that continued separation of the N&S streams we were bound for a decent run. That's a much better reason for the trends than just trying to will the low and precip NW.

Yeah not even close to an anything but snow profile there. If you get the good precip, we actually have a pretty good temp setup.

@WinterWxLuvr look at this map. Way more of a textbook look for a snowstorm with that CVA/i81 gettin in on the action. This could take on a 1/30/2010 type of evolution. Can’t hate what the gfs just did and h5 by 24 hrs showed we were gonna like it

Yeah GFS is better again, northern stream ran out faster again this run, h5 orientation was better to gain latitude as well. DC south is crushed