DDweatherman

Called earlier today that Valdosta would get in the NE eyewall and that looks to be tracking at the moment. Could certainly see gusts over 100 there and 80+ up into E GA. 

I expect nhc to announce landfall in the next 15 minutes. Edge of eyewall coming ashore now. 

Judging by how intense this is coming in, not sure how much of Perry will be left on the other side of this one.. eastern parts of Tallahassee are also going to see some 100-120+ gusts it appears if they’re clipped by that N/NW eyewall. 

Velocities up to 170mph in the NNE part of the eye wall courtesy of TLH radar…

@WxWatcher007hang in there. This one is going to be a wild ride. Maybe you can get us some footage like the 2004 Charley gas station video. 

3 minutes ago, Master of Disaster said:

Not likely considering it has one last night. 

I would call what happened last night a pseudo ERC. The eye started as nascent than made its way through the stages and in doing so there was the reorganization of the core & CDO. Not the true ERC’s we see with more developed, substantial canes.

I’m interested to see if there are any frictional effects to tighten the convection and give this a bit more symmetry on its way in. NE eyewall is 58 miles from shore at the moment. 

1 minute ago, OSUmetstud said:

The northern eyewall is the only part producing lightning. The southern eyewall is likely not open but it's also weaker. 

Agreed. People saying attenuation are denying the fact that we can see directly into the southern eyewall from TBW radar and the northern with TLH. It’s likely closed but it’s robbed of the convection which are those VHT’s and mesovorts in the N/NE. 

Just now, MN Transplant said:

Velocities from KTLH now 150-160mph aloft in the NE quadrant.

Same with TBW even on the edge of the beam, it’s fierce no doubt. 

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

For a strengthening cat 4 like that and a ragged 40% or so of the eyewall, it’s surprising to me it intensified like that. In the following post, I mentioned the intense convection. 

The bumpiness of the eye on radar now and lightning is still indicating those rotating mesovortices. Looking at velocities we definitely have some impressive #’s on the radar out of TLH. 

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

Whatever Lake Charles got, we got lol. I ended up in the NE eyewall for hours. It was unreal. 

Insane chase there, Laura did not play games. Who knew they had hurricanes in Iowa? 

Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

Macon is gonna be close.  They’re quite a bit east of Atlanta but I wouldn’t be surprised at this stage if the system even went east of them.  Athens and Augusta could be in for a world of hurt though  

It’ll all come down to the vector once it crosses land. With how intense it’s getting, I’d lean NNE vs N or any tick W of due N. VLD might be ground zero. 

Just now, TPAwx said:

Just chatting with the fam about how lucky we were with this one.  A few thuds on the roof so prob some damage, and waiting to see what the surge does later.

I’m thinking the areas down near bayshore Blvd and of course Gulfport and the beaches are going to have one of their more notable surge events.

naples had their biggest surge event in Ian, and the center passed just a bit closer by them and to the NW. 

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

All but certain to stay here. In a strong building and so far the heading looks solid. Even if the eye is a touch west, we’ll likely be in the RFQ. 

Fully expecting a Laura like event now, which is saying a lot. 

The eye keeps tightening on radar as it comes in, that RFQ is going to be insane coupled with the upper levels to help mix down big gusts + a quick forward speed. What did you gust to in Laura?

I’d expect you get a few 120-130mph gusts there in Perry. 

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

With things starting to pick up here, I will no longer be updating wind and pressure in the title of the thread. As is usually the case, I have support from folks that can let y’all know I’m ok in the likely event I lose signal.

For this trip I’ve been conferring with @MillvilleWx & @ORH_wxman. Will update as I can of course. 

Pressure down to 994.6mb here. 

Stay safe down there, need you for the winter tracking! 
 

She’s a monster now coming in, you’ll get all you bargained for it you’re holding steady in Perry. 

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Anything like that needs to be east of center 

100%, question will be where does it go after LF which is our biggest question. We pretty much know VLD will be near the eastern eyewall, but will see straighten up and move more due N or hold that NNE heading. 
 

huge implications for the 75 corridor depending on that outcome. 

Just now, DDweatherman said:

Agree with this. Meanwhile someone from VLD-MCN is going to gust 100+ I’m starting to think. 

Note to add that once this gets into that part of Georgia and VLD northward, we start getting into some pretty densely populated areas (Warner Robbins, Macon, Albany, Athens) 

1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Yeah I heard that.  Makes no sense as just an hour or two ago they showed 50 which to me makes most sense and that might not happen til 10-11Z when the W-NW sting jet gets them 

Agree with this. Meanwhile someone from VLD-MCN is going to gust 100+ I’m starting to think. 

This eastern eye wall is passing 80 miles from Tampa Bay. Talk about dodging a completely catastrophic event. The close calls can only go on for so long. 

Been saying it all day but the Valdosta corridor to Albany, GA and up I 75 to Macon could be in for a wild ride with this forward speed and how intense Helene is going to be at LF. Could be their benchmark event relatively far inland. 

Satellite is going pretty nuclear and the core is compacting really tightly on the local radars now. She’s coming in hot now folks. Look out @WxWatcher007

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

6:00 pm update from NHC maintains the 120 mph winds and pressure of 950 mb.

7pm update or a special might have this at 130-135 depending on our next sonde. 

Radar presentation rapidly improving now from KTBW and KTLH. Tightening eye that’s compacting and wrapping the brighter echoes around the NW quad

3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I just think its unlikely in 2024 the high res models would miss that degree of a capture this close in and now that its going to become a 4 I think it'll make it even harder for it to get pulled W of N til its well into GA though it might move 360-010 after landfall.  I'd feel confident now saying it will pass E of ATL, would not put a mileage on it but would say at least 30.  Ultimately not a massive error on the current track, it just seems big because it would make a huge difference in a big city.

Agree that the stronger she gets the more unlikely it would get tugged NW until the pressures came up a bit (ie the hi-res depictions of a certain threshold) 

Starting to think based on some obs and radar this actually could go west of Perry unless we get some NNE-erly jog late on the approach. Could it come in around St Marks? Somewhere between the two seems feasible.