For the past couple days, the NAM and ICON have been showing better solutions to start the model cycles..before being shat on by the rest of the model suite. Good to see the RGEM on board this time.
The key is that tug back as the first low escapes..and another low reinvigorates just as northern energy moves in. Does seem like another stretched out dual low situation.
RGEM looked decent - but I think the ceiling is capped at like 2-4" for far SE areas. Some models also hinting at one of the fraud five (inverted trough) close by
Appears to be an unfortunate timing error..that lead shortwave moving off the coast is too fast despite that digging northern stream. And I guess the northern stream isn't digging like it did at 12z yesterday. so meh