I wouldn't sleep on that D6 shortwave, looks pretty potent. At least something to monitor, if it trends south a bit. It depends on the model, but some have it around day 5.5, and some don't have jack.
So, aside from the low % shot of a followup wave amplifying near 2/12, we punt through 2/18 it seems. I'm not sold that the last 1/3 of February or early March is definitely going to suck. If it does, I sure hope it's warm at least.