The stubborn primary insists are going about 50-100 miles too far north before it happens. Strictly at 5h though, it looked slightly better to me, while the precip maps still look like dung
Doesn't this also correlate with a stronger block though, and therefore more confluence? Check out the last three cycles of the EPS..strengthening block pushing the transfer slightly southward each time.
My coworker just reported ~6" in Dartmouth. Was a bit skeptical until I saw this post. SW was best, which was modeled pretty well - but I didn't expect 6".
I got what I expected. seems like it busted further inland on front end (in MA - specified so I'm not attacked by the CT crew) and radar doesn't look very impressive. I know it will fill in later but temps will be an issue right along coast.