SouthCoastMA
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Everything posted by SouthCoastMA
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GEFS/GEPS/EPS all have a handful of ensemble members showing sub 970/960mb lows near the benchmark between 3/10-12, so hopefully that signal strengthens in the next few days. Then the next period to watch seems to be in the 3/15-3/17 timeframe. Pretty quiet over the next 8 though (aside from the Saturday storm).
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always a small chance the euro makes a couple more tics colder, while the GFS basically holds serve. not likely, but who the hell knows. CNE/NNE seems pretty locked in at this point but some on the southern edge could still be in play -
Might as well keep going at this point, never give up until the ship is sunk!
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My view is that the GFS has been decent in the mid range figuring out the general storm track, sometimes better/faster than the other models .but always seems to falter on the details within day 3. Not just this storm, but in the past couple years.
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So I'm looking forward but don't see anything trackable on the OP runs. Unless we are just talking about potential..to which I say..it's March, time is running out.
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It's pretty amazing to me that models have clustered consistently around Cleveland for the primary. Other than a few wobbles, we couldn't buy any major moves south with that. 10 years ago we probably would've seen a lot more spread 3-4 days out
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tick north but pretty close to 12z. pike gets hammered with ccb, maybe a bit south of that.
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drink down das boot, so smooth
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Not worried yet. I have a lot less room for error though, so I need the globals to tick S again at 12z
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NAM aside, what good are anomalies when determing rain/snow. A lot of that red area supports snow
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That NAM run personified
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It's shite. Another tick S on the 12z globals (or two on the Euro) would be helpful. If things stagnant or even start converging, sleet will be my ceiling.
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Euro currently has the primary in Detroit, while GFS gets it close to Cleveland. Ideally the primary never makes it past Columbus, which could happen if models continue to tick stronger with the block. I'd lock in the GFS though if given the offer, since those late minute north trends are always lurking
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In fall river today, and they still have a few inches OTG. I'd imagine they had 5+" yesterday. big difference driving down 195
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I need about 50 more miles here but I'd feel pretty good along I90 right now
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You may start to pull away this weekend..but yeah it's 3/1 and crazy it's this close
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that's a lot of sleet here. and I take, verbatim
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You could tell early this AM with the spotty radar returns and what had already fallen. Best stuff made it from RI to EWB then it kinda shredded. Then throw in the warming temps after mid-morning and the rest is history.
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+2.3" 10.3" YTD MVY has 16.0" fwiw
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it's a sloppy mix..and down to around 1" left. dude is having a rough winter
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I recall now - I think it settled south of me (Acushnet at the time) right along 195 and got messenger pretty good as well. But I think the jack was in that Fairhaven/Mattapoisett/Marion/Wareham corridor.
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I do remember one where we got around 7" on the Southcoast, but I feel like it was sometime in March 2013. I could be wrong though
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The stubborn primary insists are going about 50-100 miles too far north before it happens. Strictly at 5h though, it looked slightly better to me, while the precip maps still look like dung
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Doesn't this also correlate with a stronger block though, and therefore more confluence? Check out the last three cycles of the EPS..strengthening block pushing the transfer slightly southward each time.
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My coworker just reported ~6" in Dartmouth. Was a bit skeptical until I saw this post. SW was best, which was modeled pretty well - but I didn't expect 6".
