The capture is far too north and late now into the GOM..a far cry from some of yesterday's earlier runs that backed the storm in east of the Cape with a solid ccb to a lot of EMA. I think the winds will be strong here..but for a shorter duration.
I guess the Euro/3K NAM would be decent, and maybe we can tick this back south a bit at 12z
Expecting zilch here but I'd probably wait til 0z to punt completely. sorta expected the euro to look like that at 18z given the other guidance. Maybe it ticks back the other way
what I would give to have that verify a bit east, like some of the ensembles. Seems like the OP runs are all bringing them on Cape or just inland now. The trajectory matters too, which Euro OP being most favorable here.
I may have gotten duped by some of the overnight runs. That's what I'm expecting too, though I'll keep tracking with the outside hope that some of those more eastern ensembles have the better idea.