that followup cyclogenesis (if real) after the chance on the 20th/21st would give a better chance to coastal folks. The first system looks like a HubbDave/Deep interior look with poor antecedent air mass
5 below average and 1 barely average winter here in last 6 years. I'll just take near average at this point, a few mid-range 4-7" storms to show the kids. Not asking for much.
Just for fun, the EC-AI And 6z GFS OPs would be a decent lead up through Christmas. I know it's OP fantasy at this range but nice to see some evolutions that don't all lead to grinch
A low cutting through the Lakes never gave me snow before CC was a thing. Isn't CC more noticeable in marginal setups? That being said, it was always marginal in the mid-atlantic so I could see it being more noticeable there.
Looks like Dogsh*t til at least 12/20, but I didn't expect much to start. Maybe things will start to look more like yesterdays 18z runs..but not holding my breath.
I mean that 12z GFS upper level setup is definitely more interesting than we normally see during hurricane season. still low chance, but you have the deep trough at least