I didn't expect 18z to amp up the front end thump down to the coast.. figured we were way to warm but maybe the rates are helping. 18z HERPES was decent
yes I know, "Don't do it'
Yeah it's way west, but I'd rather see some wide goal posts at this range than all runs having it over New Brunswick.
It's also the OP so I highly doubt that run won't be an outlier in the ensembles.
OP Euro is much further west with that ULL @ Day 7, compared to CMC/GFS
Not that it has any sort of clue, but you're kinda looking for what the NAVGEM shows at that time
yeah it looked good temporarily in the 108-120 hour range but could see the writing on the wall with the trends overnight yesterday. Also the storm isn't as strong so we're not getting a huge ccb that would help the temps crash. There's always the NAM /s
It's a southern stream system and we are 108 hours out. Very precarious for my area, as I fully expect additional ticks north over the next 24-36 hours.
You gotta think the GFS is on crack at this point