wegoweather

Pick the algorithm.

HRRR ptype and highest totals look very dependent on precip rates/evaporative cooling overcoming low ratios and surface temps.

20" Big Dog plume for ORD

Pingers at DPA.

Looks more like an issue on how Tropical is handling the data. Pivotal and COD are showing a different outcome on the SE extent of the snow.

Snow totals decrease and heaviest totals move north and east.

Already has .50" to .75" in this run.

Parachutes dusted the ground at KDPA in a few minutes before transitioning to a mix.

NAM

MSPaint is hard.

Battle for which is messier, the storm or creating 3 threads for the storm.

Heck, how about 24"+ on straight 10:1.

Message: NOAA-NWS-ALERTS-IL1261CB32631C.WinterStormWatch.1263DC011240IL.LOTWSWLOT.103c7bc075e65d55d974b3b26277e43b from [email protected] Sent: 14:47 CST on 12-30-2021 Effective: 09:00 CST on 01-01-2021 Expires: 06:00 CST on 01-02-2022 Event: Winter Storm Watch Alert: ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Steady, blowing snow and dangerous travel possible. Total snow accumulations greater than 6 inches and northeasterly wind gusts in excess of 40 mph are possible. * WHERE...Lake IL, DuPage, Northern Cook, Central Cook and Southern Cook Counties. * WHEN...From Saturday morning through late Saturday night. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Widespread blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility, especially along the Lake Michigan shoreline. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The steadiest snow rates appear most likely between noon Saturday and midnight Sunday. Instructions: Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. Target Area: Central Cook DuPage Lake Northern Cook Southern Cook Event: Winter Storm Watch Alert: ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Steady, blowing snow and dangerous travel possible. Total snow accumulations greater than 6 inches and northeasterly wind gusts in excess of 35 mph are possible. * WHERE...Portions of north central and northeast Illinois. * WHEN...From Saturday morning through Saturday evening. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Widespread blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility, especially in open areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The steadiest snow rates appear most likely between noon Saturday and midnight Sunday. Instructions: Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. Target Area: Boone De Kalb Eastern Will Grundy Kane Kendall La Salle Lee McHenry Northern Will Ogle Southern Will Winnebago

That's great. I got a snow removal job back in high school off the scroll on the bottom.

Band never making it to ORD means * is likely not an *, or much less than some want to think.

Just east of KDPA

Very light mix of pingers and the occassional flake at KDPA.

Some 15z SREF members are definitely bringing mix and straight rain further north and west than the 18z NAM.

10 members over 10 inches. Looking at PType, my guess is some of the duds are effected by mixing/temp profiles. Edit: about half the duds are ptype (temp), half are total qpf (storm miss).

Plumes trending up to 7.5 total at ORD. Less than an inch from the first wave.

Somewhere it is going to snow. Accumulations between a turd duster and a foot.

12z GEFS have tightened up on storm track. North of Ukie, south of op GFS.