TugHillMatt

I can picture that area well. We made many trips through there during my childhood of driving from our home in Lancaster to see family Hazleton. Leiby's was a popular stop.

Shut up and let me enjoy my 14th dusting.

Yikes! Freezing rain is scary. Is it extremely localized, or the county as a whole? My bro and sister in law live in Orwigsburg. Per Wunderground, it looks like most places in the county are in the mid 30s. Must be very low-level cold air.

Getting a nice, light but steady snowfall here this morning. Solid dusting so far. Ah, winter!

I've mentioned it a couple time this week.. I "could" see this pattern "just" working out over the next week to provide something good. We have "just enough" cold air to possibly work with and moisture. I still see the models trying to key on tracks and timing of systems. This is a similar pattern to some from the past that have produced good wintry opportunities. There is sooo much risk, which is what we're seeing. Just a little bit north and we're screwed. But, there is potential. I also see some of them being much weaker in reality with the shredder in place. But even comparing the end of this week tonight to what we thought it would be like from yesterday's perspective...wintry chances are looking much better. It's still the meh, damp environment...but it's what we have to work with.

Exactly...seems like no matter the indices....................

Oh, look, @rochesterdave, it's where Lows love to go....

I agree that the Pacific is key...makes sense since air generally moves across our country from that area. Good point about the NAO...and the reason I think about it so much is the many times it was stressed for our good winters in SE PA when I was in Lancaster. I remember watching the Philly mets like Glenn Hurricane Swartz and John Bolaris show pretty maps of the NAO and its effects.

Eh, it's always changing. In the 1990s and early 2000s it was the NAO....then it was the AO....then it was Nino/Nina.....then it was PNA....then it was Polar Vortex....now it's MJO and musings of EPO.... In general...many of them suck for us to have good winters...that's all that matters...

True story. Sometimes you can see the optimism on the model run past the last hour...like Hr. 385....or 21934.

LOL.. It even works when you look out the window in winter and ALL you see is STUPID GREEN...

Lol...I'm honored that it stuck with you.

Oh, I feel so, so, soooo bad for you, Buff, and Delta...

They could get Ithaca to Syracuse's average annual totals within several days:

Nice! You guys must have had a decent thaw to lose a foot of snow. I know I looked at Gaylord's posts and the webcams there and it looked like they lost almost all the lake effect snow they got a couple weeks ago. The wife and I miss Michigan terribly...we were back in West Michigan this summer for a week and a half and didn't realize how much we missed it until we were back. The natural beauty and state parks of Michigan...such a treasure and under-rated. We also loved the "Michigan goodbyes" where it takes a half hour to hours to actually leave...lol. So laid back. That rarely happens over here. Perhaps when our families on the east coast (sad thought) pass away, we will come back. The wife refuses to move any more north though. You might need to start an inn at your place for all the snow-starved weenies of the Midwest and Northeast this winter...let me know when you open.

Hey, Bo! What's your snow depth up there right now? I'm guessing less than usual, but still plenty for it to look and feel like winter?

Yep! We are also losing out Springs and Falls. We go from 40s to 80 degrees in May.....and 80 to 40s in November. The trees are so confused in April and October.

We have legit seen more snow in Aprils here lately than in Decembers.

The west coast had a ridiculous heat ridge over the summer...why not give them a huge trough now? Oh, and we were STILL HOT here (and above normal) even when they had that summer ridge. lol

Easterly wind kicked in here and the temp dropped 4 to 5 degrees rapidly across the Syracuse area. Currently sitting at 33 degrees here in the NW Burbs. The way this area responds so quickly to wind shifts continues to impress me. I see you guys out in Western NY are in the lower 40s with southerly winds, so perhaps we go back up again later.

Rgem (best lake effect model) is also starting to show a healthy band of Lake effect snow Wednesday night across the Northern Finger Lakes/Lake Ontario Southshore. Then a bit of Synoptic Thursday night. Obviously I hope it comes in a little more WNW (that dumb curve to the south as it comes into Onondaga...) Hopefully we can get it to pan out. I like that models are getting a bit more impressive with it as we get closer.

Interesting 18Z NAM runs...kind of show what I had discussed yesterday... I had thought maybe the first wave would end up being the more potent of the two. Both look to try and drop an inch or two of synoptic Thursday night and Friday morning now. 12k is also making Saturday look like a very chilly rain or wet snow. My call for Christmas across Western and Central NY is dreary and damp in the 30s with snizzle/light showers...with many areas having a "white" one with slush on the ground. I just don't see enough time for the follow-up wave on Christmas to develop much/cut in this fast pattern. In fact, that will be the pattern through the end of the year. Unsettled, with 30s to lower 40s for highs....mixed rain and snow.

BUF had a great discussion this afternoon. While not what I was hoping to read, they do a great job detailing the pattern in which we're stuck in layman's terms and how it's probably not going to change through the rest of the month/year. I say we just get rid of the -NAO, allow the warmth to surge in and bake us, and hopefully in doing so, allow that -PNA to move out....and we reshuffle this whole mess of a pattern.

Looking short term, I am going to challenge myself to enjoy the minor, brief interlude of wintry weather in the form of lake effect snow showers that we hopefully get tomorrow. Really gotta enjoy the pennies that are tossed in this kind of pattern.

Bridging the -NAO and the SE Ridge.... Gah...That won't help in getting the cold air in here. Part of me thinks we just need to move the NAO out...allow the blazing heat in and get something moving....reshuffle things.