TugHillMatt

Yup! You will see the Syracuse screw zone in action. As soon as you go up the hill south of Syracuse you will enter a winter wonderland. Safe travels!

By the end of next week, our snowfall average total should be up to around 40 inches. So we are at about 25% of where we should be....pretty much the same as last year. I know you will say that is still better than what you have...but it's still ridiculously awful for those like me who thought living here would provide a more solid winter.

My forecast for here, if there's any doubt in what's going to happen, will always hedge towards the following: 1) Sizzle 2) Rain 3) Dusting Guaranteed to be pretty accurate until we see an entire atmospheric shakeup.

I see the latest model runs have the 'heaviest" snow for tonight missing to the south over the same area that has gotten it the past couple years. My call of a quarter to half inch here is looking good.

Congratulations! I received 10% of that. Christmas is ruined. (Not really.)

Lol. Everybody tries to leave New York state. Except Low pressure systems. They're obsessed.

Looks like the Northern band off of L.O. may be reorienting itself a bit. One of our local mets here took a bit of a risk against computer models during the evening newscast and said he wouldn't be surprised to see the band lift north and take on a bit more a west to east orientation. We'll see if anything comes of it as flow shifts a bit.

No comment.

Enjoy! Looks like you're almost guaranteed a White Christmas.

lol...Gah...look at it! I did NOT ask for this snow forcefield!!!!

I decided to peruse some of the previous discussions from the past. Could go back even more, but just went back to December 2019. Same theme, same discouragement. The Pacific has been destroying our Decembers and much of Januaries. Oh, the things I could have cut and pasted... (Oh, and Syracuse will probably hit the new year with even LESS snowfall than last November/December! lol... Just awful. Snippets from December 2019 On 12/24/2019 at 2:51 PM, BuffaloWeather said: This is a long stretch of way above normal temps for late Dec. This Afternoon Mostly cloudy, with a high near 40. Christmas Day Mostly sunny, with a high near 49. Thursday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 45. Friday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 50. Saturday Partly sunny, with a high near 44. Sunday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 48. Monday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 38. _______________________________________________ Buffaloweather: This is basically our setup right now. But yes MJO is having a huge influence on our weather, as it did last year. Lots of convection. We have a very strong PV where Alaska has been brutally cold. This leads to the Pacific air dominating the lower 48. There are no mechanisms to bring the cold air to our region. The one good thing is the PV is on our side of the globe, not in Siberia/Russia. ________________________________________________________ Snippets from December 2020: rochesterdave Members 5.1k Location:W. Irondequoit, N. rochester Posted December 27, 2020 Seriously though, it’s been a tough time to live in Syracuse or Rochester as snow lovers. We do best in deep, cold winters with persistent NW flow- those winters might be gone. This pattern favors transient systems with quick, violent fronts. We need a winter that settles in with a deep eastern trough and an Alaskan ridge. If it wasn’t for blocking (at least that’s something) the raging pacific would be serving up exactly the same as we had last year. And that was bad enough. One of these storms should turn at the right longitude. This pattern is also good for a retrograde storm like Tim and I always dream about- get one to spin up in the atlantic then back in to the Adks and stall. Opportunities but these things only leave 50 mile swaths... Buffaloweather: We just had that last January. January 2020 was the 9th warmest in the records. ____________________ Freak: I'm dead serious when I say we should go for the all time least snowiest season on record here in Syracuse because, from the looks of most guidance we may get to mid-January with not much accumulation so Ima start rooting for it, why not, since it doesn't want to snow anymore. _____________________ Buffaloweather: Posted December 28, 2020 Lots of cutters next 2 weeks. Should be a few really warm days tossed in there compared to average. Feel pretty confident in another above average month in January.

There she goes... Based on almost every snowfall underperforming here (other than a 5 mile wide WNW lake effect band), I am going to go with a quarter to half inch of snow from tomorrow night's wave. Seems like we get about a fourth of whatever is forecast. Are those expectations still too high? Glad you Rochester guys are cashing in...enjoy!

Yawn. It's like flurries. The band, of course, is sitting JUST to my south. Looks like Liverpool has the ground almost completely covered. Not the case here. Live view - AXIS P3364 Network Camera (lpl.org)

Probably the same here. Hopefully you guys can cash in on some more snow showers overnight and tomorrow night.

Wow, that is ridiculous! I thought for sure from looking at radar that you were getting hit good.

I have about 4 times more of a dusting than you do. lol

Ha! I think you're right. That area has been hit over and over again since I've been here. Supposedly Marccellus is the least snowy place in Onondaga county...

Now it's coming down hard. Rgem is showing 3 to 5 inches. We shall see.

Seriously. It's like heavy flurries. lol Add yet another trace to the totals. Dusting capital of the world.

Nice! Oh, you're down in PA right now? Missing out on the White Christmas?

I've got a webcam for your crib too. I can confirm...Lowville does have snow on ground. Snow on ground. Over and out. LIVE TRAFFIC/WEATHER CAM: SOUTH STATE STREET, LOWVILLE (linkinglewiscounty.com)

Coming down over wolfie's house really nicely right now. EarthCam - Salmon River Cam

This one was hard. "Bastardi" starts with "B" and ends with an "I." Then, I remembered we were talking about computer models. Sorry..."weathercam brain"

Based on some of the returns on radar and this band coinciding with evening rush hours, I could see the NWS offices issuing advisories with the new update.

Oh, let's play! Name that model: