TugHillMatt

Perhaps we'll do better when these thin bands/cells come through. They look to have some instability associated with them. Otherwise, we'll add the pennies on to our season total and carry on to the next.

Ha! It'll be melted by the afternoon with the 40 degree sizzle. I realize nobody is getting huge amounts from this disturbance, but I think it's safe to say the Cuse once again is receiving some of the least amount of snow from this in Central/Western NY. I honestly don't know how we average 120 to 130 inches, because there seems to be a dry pocket that sits above us in every event. I have seen Freak mention this in the past as well. I just don't get it. Do we get downsloped from all directions?! Or is it just this continuation of odd bad luck? During synoptic events, I can just tell from looking at the snowflakes fall and how spaced apart they are that there is some shredding going on above.

It looks like the I 80 corridor got a good burst of snow. Checking out the webcams, it looks white along the highway. I wonder if there will be any left by the time I arrive in Danville this afternoon. Perhaps in the shade?

Never mind. Radar is way off or something. Under heavy echoes but flurrying. My call of underachieving is still greatly possible. Half inch so far... LOL

It was pixie dust here for the first 1.5 hours, but now getting some very nice dendrites as precip. fills in. Based on upstream reports and seeing all of this precip to go still across all of Western NY....we could have a liiiiiittle bit of an overachiever here. Probably just like a couple of extra tenths, but still...haha. My half inch call busted (happily).

Nice! Was it supposed to get that far North? You guys have gotten a couple of nice surprises there this season, I believe? I was perusing the NYC subforum and I saw Walt's forecast for the "first covering/dusting of snow" of the season down there. Geesh. Put it into a little perspective of why you might look forward to being here for winter. lol

It has gone the other way...you just don't remember because they go too far south then and miss us the other way as well.

Seems like in general, the cold air will be more accessible to us at the beginning of January. The MJO in 7, if it's strong enough to have any effect, is more helpful in January than December.

Lol... The Low goes right to Syracuse...and then the lake effect goes everywhere but here.

How much snow do you two average? I am going to guess 35 inches.

I'm still sticking with a quarter to half inch for Sizzleshreddercuse.

They were probably banking on it to go farther North than the models were showing (like what usually happens). But, of course the bands didn't do that this time.

That is very good consensus. Let's keep it there and not pushing it back. It would still be quick-moving systems ejected into the flow without much to slow them down. But, more cold air available for some small winter events.

Last year it was the EPO in connection with the SE ridge. This year it's the PNA in connection with the ridge. -NAO isn't really helping in terms of getting wintry precip. We just seem to have so many teleconnections and indices stacked against us in getting good winters in the Northeast quadrant of the country. Even so, not sure if it's just luck, but areas close by (like PA and New England) have still been able to luck out while we still have the same lame outcomes here. (Although 19-20 was awful for some of them.)

I bet you salivate at the possibility of some major LES off Erie IF we ever get some cold pouring in during January.

...and per usual, look at the "cutout" of snow from the Syracuse area. Lol In reality, crap like that has happened so many times... it's just,

I love this comment. I can understand 100% of everything you typed.

I was referring more to the temperatures... But snowfall up here has also sucked the past several Decembers.

Just ridiculous. What is happening to our Decembers?!

So, I am curious...if the white represents "less than 25%" then what does the green in New Jersey represent? "No chance in hell?"

So instead of ranking with number values, I am intrigued to know the adjectives you use in your winter rankings.....

Please, please, pleeeeeeease. Forego one of your worldwide trips and put that money into a snow machine and @Thinksnow18's property he is going to buy me on the Tug for banishment. My family has joked with me many times over the years about getting a snow machine. My wife and I laughed at that one commercial where the family member is living in a snow globe with a snow machine while it's a tropical paradise on the other side. My wife has proposed us doing the same...

They might just melt instead...

Lol... I once shared a townhouse with a guy who hated snow. When I shoveled the driveway in the morning, I would make nice big piles in shaded areas to "save the snow." I would come home from work to find he broke up the snow piles and shoveled some of the snow BACK on the driveway to melt it in the afternoon sun! Drove me bonkers! Hahaha.... Serious snow battles between the two of us. Lol

I can imagine. It will obviously be a bigger deficit around here since we rely on the lake effect for our totals. No cold air accompanied with moisture moving over those lakes equates to zippo for us. In these patterns, it stings when places a few miles away get a half foot from a thin lake effect band because you know the chances are extremely slim of having another setup anytime soon. It's hard to explain...but it might be easier as a winter lover to live outside of a lake effect snow belt. It's easier to tolerate nobody within hundreds of miles having snow than somebody down the road having a foot while you stare at grass for weeks. It's just a strange situation. Thanks for reading my musings.